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WD and Seagate confirm: Hard drives sold out for 2026

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Re: WD and Seagate confirm: Hard drives sold out for 2026

#181
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it’s temporary I can live with it. I guess this was inevitable with the absolute insane money being poured into AI. Hyperscalars refresh hardware and firesale old stock. ~2028 is going to see a lot of high power refurb supply hit the market.

Do they? When I was at AWS in 2019-2021 there were some servers in the fleet— not many, but they definitely existed— which dated to before 2010. Maybe it depends on the type:class, but I think hyperscalers run hardware until it dies, then junk it. Where have you seen hyperscaler hardware for sale?

I've seen plenty of stuff from google and meta datacenters on the market.

Had some weirdo AMD GPUs that were GCP-only that were offered to folks if you bought in bulk quantity. A whole ton of whitebox Ethernet switches from Facebook were on the market a number of years ago.

Lots of weird stuff like OCP 25G NICs that only were bought in quantity by hyperscalers as well come out in waves. You don't see a lot of these things hit eBay and traditional "used marketplaces" but they are out there if you know where to look and have connections with liquidators. You're unlikely to get deals on a few here and there though unless the market becomes absolutely saturated - usually hundreds are MoQ for a lot of these things.

Storage will be unlikely to see as the risk:reward for a giant company usually is too great. If data was ever written to them, typically they will be shredded vs. secure wiped. Very few large corporations want to take the risk of some liquidator either not running a proper wipe process or something slipping through the cracks. Even with encrypted drives I haven't seen much in quantity hit unless they were quite literally never utilized and straight pulls from large JBOD orders or the like. However, ServerDirect and other places seem to have cracked this nut a little bit considering the number of refurb drives they run through - not sure what their sources are though. Certainly not hyperscaler levels in any case.

Re: WD and Seagate confirm: Hard drives sold out for 2026

#182
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am afraid my NAS will have a hard drive failure, and I won’t be able to order replacements. I should’ve bought a back up

Exactly, me too and at 10 years it's gonna happen :(

[dead]

Re: WD and Seagate confirm: Hard drives sold out for 2026

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's next is no custom built PCs. They want us running dumb thin clients and subscribing to compute. Or it will be like phones. We'll get pre-built PCs that we aren't allowed to repair and they'll be forced to be obsolete every few years.

"they"? i see companies jacking their prices up, plain and simple. and us idiots still pay. ask yourself does intel no longer wish to sell CPUs to consumers? doesnt sound reasonable that intel would want to decimate their main market so AI companies can rule the world for some reason

You act like companies do long term planning. They don't. Its always next quarter. And if you don't believe me, just look back to the pandemic, look at peleton, or car manufacturers or any of the dozens of examples

Re: WD and Seagate confirm: Hard drives sold out for 2026

#185
post #141

After, RAM, SSD, GPUs, now HDDs what else is there left to sell out? Power supplies, fans? In a way this feels a bit absurd for these AI centers to hog HDDs. As pointed by others neither training nor inference require HDDs and storing raw data should not require that much. So my hypothesis is that it is a double whammy of overall declining consumer sided HDD demand, leaving data centers as main source of demand and a…

Gas turbines

Re: WD and Seagate confirm: Hard drives sold out for 2026

#186
post #141

After, RAM, SSD, GPUs, now HDDs what else is there left to sell out? Power supplies, fans? In a way this feels a bit absurd for these AI centers to hog HDDs. As pointed by others neither training nor inference require HDDs and storing raw data should not require that much. So my hypothesis is that it is a double whammy of overall declining consumer sided HDD demand, leaving data centers as main source of demand and a…

>So if a student comes to me wishing to start building computers what advice do I give them? Farm something?

Buy used stuff? 99.9% of consumers have no need for anywhere near the cutting edge tech. I do far more than most people and get by just fine with a workstation I bought used in 2014. My newest Laptop is ~2018 and that was only because I wanted something with 4K that I could flip to tablet.

Raspberry PI's, SOCS, Microcontrollers, there's a million things today that are awesome. Are hobbyist students needing to build datacenters!?

Re: WD and Seagate confirm: Hard drives sold out for 2026

#188
post #141

After, RAM, SSD, GPUs, now HDDs what else is there left to sell out? Power supplies, fans? In a way this feels a bit absurd for these AI centers to hog HDDs. As pointed by others neither training nor inference require HDDs and storing raw data should not require that much. So my hypothesis is that it is a double whammy of overall declining consumer sided HDD demand, leaving data centers as main source of demand and a…

> As someone who has been building computers since 1989 it feels like end of personal hobby casual building. We have a long way to go before the average PC costs even half as much as it did in 1989 (adjusted for inflation). And of course the performance for typical consumer use is orders of magnitude better than it was back then.

My parents love to tell me how in either late 1997 or early 1998 they bought the first PC for our family, a Compaq with a Pentium 3, 12 GB hard drive, 128MB of RAM, and no graphics acceleration at all beyond whatever was integrated on the Pentium 3. It cost $2000 back then so probably almost $4000 today. My high end 4090 rig cost a bit more than that to build for comparison and that machine is better than 98% of machines out there today.

Re: WD and Seagate confirm: Hard drives sold out for 2026

#189
post #141

After, RAM, SSD, GPUs, now HDDs what else is there left to sell out? Power supplies, fans? In a way this feels a bit absurd for these AI centers to hog HDDs. As pointed by others neither training nor inference require HDDs and storing raw data should not require that much. So my hypothesis is that it is a double whammy of overall declining consumer sided HDD demand, leaving data centers as main source of demand and a…

>So if a student comes to me wishing to start building computers what advice do I give them? Farm something? Buy used stuff? 99.9% of consumers have no need for anywhere near the cutting edge tech. I do far more than most people and get by just fine with a workstation I bought used in 2014. My newest Laptop is ~2018 and that was only because I wanted something with 4K that I could flip to tablet. Raspberry PI's, SOCS…

Most of the computers I buy are refurbished or used models, I've never had a bad experience. Especially now, when computers are not getting much better whereas prices are increasing faster than performance.
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