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"Token anxiety", a slot machine by any other name

jkap.io

161–170 of 249 posts

Re: "Token anxiety", a slot machine by any other name

#161
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And we're still in the expansion phase, so LLM life is actually good... for now.

It's not going to get worse than now though. Open models like GLM 5 are very good. Even if companies decide to crank up the costs, the current open models will still be available. They will likely get cheaper to run over time as well (better hardware).

>Open models like GLM 5 are very good. Even if companies decide to crank up the costs, the current open models will still be available.

https://apxml.com/models/glm-5

To run GLM-5 you need access to many, many consumer grade GPUs, or multiple data center level GPUs.

>They will likely get cheaper to run over time as well (better hardware).

Unless they magically solve the problem of chip scarcity, I don't see this happening. VRAM is king, and to have more of it you have to pay a lot more. Let's use the RTX 3090 as an example. This card is ~6 years old now, yet it still runs you around $1.3k. If you wanted to run GLM-5 I4 quantization (the lowest listed in the link above) with a 32k context window, you would need *32 RTX 3090's*. That's $42k dollars you'd be spending on obsolete silicon. If you wanted to run this on newer hardware, you could reasonable expect to multiply that number by 2.

Re: "Token anxiety", a slot machine by any other name

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It really does rot your brain, this is obvious to anybody who doesn't watch TV, but completely imperceptible to those who do. how do you block video on your PC? or do you literally mean audiovisual information broadcast onto actual television sets is the evil?

When you watch television, or television on your computer screen (that makes no difference) you get hypnotized by the tube into a passive state of consumption. Watch people when they watch TV. Watch their slack jawed faces when the commercials stay on and their attention stays glued to the advertisements pitching Alzheimer drugs. Critical though suspended, minds off in space. In short, read a book.

what you said is true about books, and people made the exact same arguments when the printing press hit the scene

- "you get hypnotized by the tube into a passive state of consumption"

- "Watch their slack jawed faces....and their attention stays glued"

both statements apply equally to books. read here if you dont believe me.

https://engines.egr.uh.edu/talks/what-people-said-about-book...

youve got a case of the feelies my friend

Re: "Token anxiety", a slot machine by any other name

#163
post #93
post #11

The gambling analogy completely falls apart on inspection. Slot machines have variable reward schedules by design — every element is optimized to maximize time on device. Social media optimizes for engagement, and compulsive behavior is the predictable output. The optimization target produces the addiction. What's Anthropic's optimization target??? Getting you the right answer as fast as possible! The variability in…

Anthropic themselves have described CC as a slot machine: https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/58284b19e702b49db9302d5b6f135a... (cmd-f "slot machine")

No, no, you misunderstand! It’s means something else!

Re: "Token anxiety", a slot machine by any other name

#166

It's very tempting to agree to the 'gambling' part, given that both a jackpot and progress towards the goal in your project will give you a hit of dopamine. The difference is that in gambling 'the house always wins', but in our case we do make progress towards our goal of conquering the world with our newly minted apps. The situation where this comparison holds is when vibe coding leads nowhere and you don't accompli…

[flagged]

Books are net positive for you, slop smoothens your brain IF you completely outsource your thinking to it. It’s not a rocket science.

Re: "Token anxiety", a slot machine by any other name

#167

I know I'm running a bit late to the party here, but maybe someone can provide some color that I (on the slightly older end of the spectrum when it comes to this) don't fully understand. When people talk about leaving their agents to run overnight, what are those agents actually doing? The limited utility I've had using agent-supported software development requires a significant amount of hand holding, maybe because…

I might be able to shine a little light on this.

I came from embedded, where I wasn't able to use agents very effectively for anything other than quick round trip iterative stuff. They were still really useful, but I definitely could never envision just letting an agent run unattended.

But I recently switched domains into vaguely "fullstack web" using very popular frameworks. If I spend a good portion of my day going back and forth with an agent, working on a detailed implementation plan that spawns multiple agents, there is seemingly no limit* to the scope of the work they are able to accurately produce. This is because I'm reading through the whole plan and checking for silly gotchyas and larger implementation mistakes before I let them run. It's also great because I can see how the work can be parallelized at certain parts, but blocked at others, and see how much work can be parallelized at once.

Once I'm ready, I can usually let it start with not even the latest models, because the actual implementation is so straightforwardly prompted that it gets it close to perfectly right. I usually sit next to it and validate it while it's working, but I could easily imagine someone letting it run overnight to wake up to a fresh PR in the morning.

Don't get me wrong, it's still more work that just "vibing" the whole thing, but it's _so_ much more efficient than actually implementing it, especially when it's a lot of repetitive patterns and boilerplate.

* I think the limit is how much I can actually keep in my brain and spec out in a well thought out manner that doesn't let any corner cases through, which is still a limit, but not necessarily one coming from the agents. Once I have one document implemented, I can move on to the next with my own fresh mental context which makes it a lot easier to work.

Re: "Token anxiety", a slot machine by any other name

#168

How ironic that agents were supposed to free us from labor, but instead they're ushering in 996 culture.

It’s like how adding a lane to a highway doesn’t decrease traffic, traffic will just increase to consume the additional capacity. Efficiency gains at work just mean more work haha

Re: "Token anxiety", a slot machine by any other name

#169

I know I'm running a bit late to the party here, but maybe someone can provide some color that I (on the slightly older end of the spectrum when it comes to this) don't fully understand. When people talk about leaving their agents to run overnight, what are those agents actually doing? The limited utility I've had using agent-supported software development requires a significant amount of hand holding, maybe because…

> what are those agents actually doing?

Providing material for attention-grabbing headlines and blog posts, primarily. Can't (in good conscience, at least) claim you had an agent running all night if you didn't actually run an agent all night.

Re: "Token anxiety", a slot machine by any other name

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What makes you believe this? Simply, cut-throat competition. Given multiple nations are funding different AI-labs, quality of output and speed are one of the most important things.

sigh We're doing this lie again? Quality of Outcome is not, has never been, and if the last 40 years are anything to go on will never be a core or even tangential goal. Dudes are trying to make the stock numbers go up and get paid. That's it. That's all it ever is.

You're just being pedantic and cynical.

Goal of any business in principle is profit, by your terms all of them are misaligned.

Matter of fact is that customers are receiving value and the value has been a good proxy for which company will grow to be successful and which will fail.

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