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AI optimism is a class privilege

joshcollinsworth.com

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Re: AI optimism is a class privilege

#31

Post by jdross »

small_model wrote: post #21

It seems like the author hasn't really used the latest models, I wrote my last line of code about a month ago after 20+ years coding. Claude Code can do it for me, better faster and never gets tired etc. Yes I have to keep it on leash but humans coding is over, unless its to learn or for fun. Actually it's the lower classes that will escape the longest from AI replacing their jobs, unskilled physical work will remain…

The new robot demos from Unitree make me wonder how many classes of unskilled labor are about to be automated (garbage collection, laundry & dishes, pothole repairs, last mile delivery, simple food preparation…)

Skilled labor still has some legs.

Re: AI optimism is a class privilege

#32

Post by bad_haircut72 »

antonvs wrote: post #22
nomdep wrote: post #10

(I feel that I write a comment like this every few years) The author catalog of harms is real. But it's worth noting that nearly identical catalogs were compiled for every major technological shift in modern history. The Internet destroyed print journalism, local retail, and enabled cyberbullying and mass surveillance. If we applied the same framework used here, Internet optimism in 2005 was also a form of "class pri…

The assumption in your comment is that those changes were all net good. In hindsight though, the automobile has had possibly existential costs for humanity, the internet has provided most benefit to those who most abuse its power, and so on. In the end, it doesn’t seem as though you’ve actually made any sort of case.

The Industrial Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.

Re: AI optimism is a class privilege

#33

Post by mft_ »

zozbot234 wrote: post #27
nomdep wrote: post #10

(I feel that I write a comment like this every few years) The author catalog of harms is real. But it's worth noting that nearly identical catalogs were compiled for every major technological shift in modern history. The Internet destroyed print journalism, local retail, and enabled cyberbullying and mass surveillance. If we applied the same framework used here, Internet optimism in 2005 was also a form of "class pri…

Local retail and specialty print media are alive and well. Mass-market newspapers may be in trouble, but that's because it turns out most people were buying those for the classifieds, not really for the news. Even cyberbullying is mostly a matter of salience: it takes something that has always existed in the physical realm (bullying behavior) and moves it to the cyber environment where the mass public becomes aware o…

> Mass-market newspapers may be in trouble, but that's because it turns out most people were buying those for the classifieds, not really for the news.

Genuinely interested in some sort of data on this.

My working assumption was that print news media was dying through a combination of free news availability on the internet, shifting advertising spending as a result, shifting ‘channels’ to social media, and shifting attention spans between generations.

Re: AI optimism is a class privilege

#34

Post by shimman »

antonvs wrote: post #22
nomdep wrote: post #10

(I feel that I write a comment like this every few years) The author catalog of harms is real. But it's worth noting that nearly identical catalogs were compiled for every major technological shift in modern history. The Internet destroyed print journalism, local retail, and enabled cyberbullying and mass surveillance. If we applied the same framework used here, Internet optimism in 2005 was also a form of "class pri…

The assumption in your comment is that those changes were all net good. In hindsight though, the automobile has had possibly existential costs for humanity, the internet has provided most benefit to those who most abuse its power, and so on. In the end, it doesn’t seem as though you’ve actually made any sort of case.

I often wonder that if cable news was around say, during the American Civil War, how likely would the 13th, 14th, and 15th amendments have passed? I'd say extremely unlikely.

Throughout our entire race as a species, abusers have always fucked the commons to the extreme using whatever tools they have available.

I mean take something as "innocuous" as the cotton gin, prior to the cotton gin there was a real decline in slavery but once it became extremely easier to process cotton slavery skyrocketed. Some of the worse laws the US has ever passed, the fugitive slave act, was during this period.

To think that technological progress means prosperity is extremely delusional.

We're still dealing with the ramifications of nuclear weapons and the likelihood that someone makes a committed nuclear attack will assuredly happen again in our species, just hoping that it doesn't take out all life on Earth when it happens.

Re: AI optimism is a class privilege

#35

Post by NoOn3 »

tptacek wrote: post #11
georgemcbay wrote: post #4

I would say it is privilege (now) combined with denialism (for the future). Not only do you have to believe that you're in the group that benefits, but you also have to believe that "AI" improvement from here forward will stall out prior to the point where it goes from assisting your job to replacing it wholesale. I suspect there are many less people for whom that applies to them than there are people who believe it…

Most of the logic of this post will be incoherent in a world where AI has replaced software jobs wholesale. You have to pick a lane. Is it so effective that it (and the labor market more broadly) needs to be aggressively regulated, or it not very useful for anything but trolling? It can't be both.

Sometimes It is effective, but very unreliable.

Re: AI optimism is a class privilege

#36

Post by isahers »

I disagree with most of this article. Disclaimer: I'm a junior engineer and I believe both that: 1. AI is going to take my job, 2. AI is going to do incredible good for the world.

I don't see how these are distinct. It's a technology shift, of course it's going to make certain jobs obsolete - that's how technology shifts work.

I'm not going to go through every quote I disagree with, but unlike some AI negativity discourse (some of which I agree with btw, being an optimist doesn't mean being irrational) this just reads as old man yells at cloud. Mainly because the author doesn't understand the technology, and doesn't understand the impact.

The author clearly does not understand model capabilities (seems to be in the camp that these are just "prediction machines") as they claim it's unreasonable to expect models to "develop presently impossible capabilities". This is not at all supported by prior model releases. Most, if not all, major releases have displayed new capabilities. There are a lot more misconceptions on ability, but again not going to go through all of them.

The author also doesn't understand the impact, saying stuff like "Tech doesn’t free workers; it forces them to do more in the same amount of time, for the same rate of pay or less". What? Is the author unaware of what average labor hours were like before the industrial revolution? AI is clearly going to be hugely net positive for white-collar (and with robots eventually blue-collar) workers in the near future (it already is for many).

Re: AI optimism is a class privilege

#37

Post by Retric »

jdross wrote: post #26
antonvs wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The assumption in your comment is that those changes were all net good. In hindsight though, the automobile has had possibly existential costs for humanity, the internet has provided most benefit to those who most abuse its power, and so on. In the end, it doesn’t seem as though you’ve actually made any sort of case.

The set of people who believe the automobile (or the Internet) are net negatives taken as a whole for society is extremely small, for good reason

Is it? Do you include everyone that’s died or lost a loved one due to personal automobiles in that assessment?

We are so far post automobile that it’s hard to compare, but many of the benefits are illusionary when you consider how society has evolved with them as commutes for example used to be shorter. Similarly the air used to be far cleaner and that’s after we got rid of leaded gas and required catalytic converters decades ago.

Re: AI optimism is a class privilege

#38

Post by small_model »

jdross wrote: post #31
small_model wrote: post #21

It seems like the author hasn't really used the latest models, I wrote my last line of code about a month ago after 20+ years coding. Claude Code can do it for me, better faster and never gets tired etc. Yes I have to keep it on leash but humans coding is over, unless its to learn or for fun. Actually it's the lower classes that will escape the longest from AI replacing their jobs, unskilled physical work will remain…

The new robot demos from Unitree make me wonder how many classes of unskilled labor are about to be automated (garbage collection, laundry & dishes, pothole repairs, last mile delivery, simple food preparation…) Skilled labor still has some legs.

Can't wait for silent robots to collect the garbage, human ones seem to enjoy making as much racket as they can.

Re: AI optimism is a class privilege

#39

Post by EdwardDiego »

jdross wrote: post #26
antonvs wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The assumption in your comment is that those changes were all net good. In hindsight though, the automobile has had possibly existential costs for humanity, the internet has provided most benefit to those who most abuse its power, and so on. In the end, it doesn’t seem as though you’ve actually made any sort of case.

The set of people who believe the automobile (or the Internet) are net negatives taken as a whole for society is extremely small, for good reason

Let's refine terms - internal combustion engine driven automobiles have lead to lead poisoning, air pollution, and CO2 emissions.

Re: AI optimism is a class privilege

#40

Post by antonly »

DesaiAshu wrote: post #17

India and Africa are significantly more optimistic about AI than US and EU There exists great promise in AI to be an equalizing force, if implemented well The future is yet to be written

How is it an equalising force if the commodity is sold at "market value"? This will just lead to more wealth concentration, no?
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