Live data from Hacker News

What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

outlookzen.com

11–20 of 52 posts

Re: What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

#11

If you read that article, you are a prime candidate to benefit from Bogleheads.org Check it out. You’ll learn the easy, certain, slow way to accumulate wealth. Your future self will be very happy.

> certain

And by "certain", you mean "not certain". The core tenet are index funds, and while for the average person, they're probably better than stock-picking, you're absolutely exposing yourself to market risk.

Re: What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

#12
Idk how people write posts like this anymore. Clearly the stock market isn't rational, and prices of stocks are not tied to financial fundamentals. Stocks are essentially a deflationary alternative currency that only people with disposable income can afford. The rich (and to a smaller extent, the middle class) take the currency which devalues every year (USD) and use it to buy the currency which increases in value every year (stocks and other digital assets), and this is part of the funnel that increases the wealth of the rich at the expense of the poor and middle class. People who think valuations of stocks are tied to fundamentals are smoking medical-grade copium. I too wish that the backbone of our financial system was a not a corrupt, rigged game that benefits a small and decreasing number of people every year, but it is.

Re: What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

#13
post #7
post #6

printing your currency to zero.

That's a way to bolster it, certainly. None of the listed companies are on the hook for US debt and they'll just relocate if the US becomes a liability. Their value isn't (greatly) at danger of collapse if the debt becomes overwhelming. There are also healthy ways to encourage economic growth, but those are too boring for the current moment.

The US is the largest market for most US companies, so if consumer buying power is erased (e.g. through a treasury default or inflating our way out of the debt) those companies will drop substantially in value.

Re: What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

#15

Idk how people write posts like this anymore. Clearly the stock market isn't rational, and prices of stocks are not tied to financial fundamentals. Stocks are essentially a deflationary alternative currency that only people with disposable income can afford. The rich (and to a smaller extent, the middle class) take the currency which devalues every year (USD) and use it to buy the currency which increases in value ev…

The way to fix that is to stop debasing the currency.

I stopped buying stocks a few years ago. The moment there is a contraction of credit or circulating currency we will see a 1929 style crash. Not worth the risk anymore.

Re: What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

#16
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a way to bolster it, certainly. None of the listed companies are on the hook for US debt and they'll just relocate if the US becomes a liability. Their value isn't (greatly) at danger of collapse if the debt becomes overwhelming. There are also healthy ways to encourage economic growth, but those are too boring for the current moment.

The US is the largest market for most US companies, so if consumer buying power is erased (e.g. through a treasury default or inflating our way out of the debt) those companies will drop substantially in value.

Potentially that will be the case in actual terms. Likely that will be the case in terms of their growth rate. But (for most) that certainly won't be the case in relative terms - the large US corporations would ride through such a decline taking an even bigger slice of the global pie.

Re: What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

#18

Idk how people write posts like this anymore. Clearly the stock market isn't rational, and prices of stocks are not tied to financial fundamentals. Stocks are essentially a deflationary alternative currency that only people with disposable income can afford. The rich (and to a smaller extent, the middle class) take the currency which devalues every year (USD) and use it to buy the currency which increases in value ev…

> Clearly the stock market isn't rational, and prices of stocks are not tied to financial fundamentals.

Stock prices are tied to anticipated future earnings, not past or present financials.

> only people with disposable income can afford

Anyone can invest in stocks with $100 or less. As for disposable income, anyone that can buy beer, drugs, or lottery tickets has disposable income that can be invested in stocks.

> part of the funnel that increases the wealth of the rich at the expense of the poor and middle class

Corporations make money by creating wealth, not "funneling" it from other people.

Post reply on HN