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Gemini 3 Deep Think

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Re: Gemini 3 Deep Think

#371

Post by blibble »

jimmymcgee73 wrote: post #364
vessenes wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m someone who’d like to deploy a lot more workers than I want to manage. Put another way, I’m on the capital side of the conversation. The good news for labor that has experience and creativity is that it just started costing 1/100,000 what it used to to get on that side of the equation.

If LLMs truly cause widespread replacement of labor, you’re screwed just as much as anyone else. If we hit say 40% unemployment do you think people will care you own your home or not? Do you think people will care you have currency or not? The best case outcome will be universal income and a pseudo utopia where everyone does ok. The “bad” scenario is widespread war. I am one of the “haves” and am not looking forward…

> I am one of the “haves” and am not looking forward to the instability this may bring. Literally no one should.

these people always forget capitalism is permitted to exist by consent of the people

if there's 40% unemployment it won't continue to exist, regardless of what the TV/tiktok/chatgpt says

Re: Gemini 3 Deep Think

#372

Post by YeGoblynQueenne »

tl wrote: post #312
raincole wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even before this, Gemini 3 has always felt unbelievably 'general' for me. It can beat Balatro (ante 8) with text description of the game alone[0]. Yeah, it's not an extremely difficult goal for humans, but considering: 1. It's an LLM, not something trained to play Balatro specifically 2. Most (probably >99.9%) players can't do that at the first attempt 3. I don't think there are many people who posted their Balatro p…

Per BalatroBench, gemini-3-pro-preview makes it to round (not ante) 19.3 ± 6.8 on the lowest difficulty on the deck aimed at new players. Round 24 is ante 8's final round. Per BalatroBench, this includes giving the LLM a strategy guide, which first-time players do not have. Gemini isn't even emitting legal moves 100% of the time.

https://balatrobench.com/

Re: Gemini 3 Deep Think

#373

Post by nphardon »

I think I'm finally realizing that my job probably won't exist in 3-5. Things are moving so fast now that the LLMs are basically writing themselves. I think the earlier iterations moved slower because they were limited by human ability and productivity limitations.

Re: Gemini 3 Deep Think

#374

Post by imiric »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #351
imiric wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the point of comparing performance of these tools to humans? Machines have been able to accomplish specific tasks better than humans since the industrial revolution. Yet we don't ascribe intelligence to a calculator. None of these benchmarks prove these tools are intelligent, let alone generally intelligent. The hubris and grift are exhausting.

The hubris and grift are exhausting. And moving the goalposts every few months isn't? What evidence of intelligence would satisfy you? Personally, my biggest unsatisfied requirement is continual-learning capability, but it's clear we aren't too far from seeing that happen.

> What evidence of intelligence would satisfy you?

That is a loaded question. It presumes that we can agree on what intelligence is, and that we can measure it in a reliable way. It is akin to asking an atheist the same about God. The burden of proof is on the claimer.

The reality is that we can argue about that until we're blue in the face, and get nowhere.

In this case it would be more productive to talk about the practical tasks a pattern matching and generation machine can do, rather than how good it is at some obscure puzzle. The fact that it's better than humans at solving some problems is not particularly surprising, since computers have been better than humans at many tasks for decades. This new technology gives them broader capabilities, but ascribing human qualities to it and calling it intelligence is nothing but a marketing tactic that's making some people very rich.

Re: Gemini 3 Deep Think

#375

Post by mrandish »

brokencode wrote: post #165
logicprog wrote: post #105

Is it me or is the rate of model release is accelerating to an absurd degree? Today we have Gemini 3 Deep Think and GPT 5.3 Codex Spark. Yesterday we had GLM5 and MiniMax M2.5. Five days before that we had Opus 4.6 and GPT 5.3. Then maybe two weeks I think before that we had Kimi K2.5.

They are using the current models to help develop even smarter models. Each generation of model can help even more for the next generation. I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say that we may be only a single digit number of years away from the singularity.

> using the current models to help develop even smarter models.

That statement is plausible. However, extrapolating that to assert all the very different things which must be true to enable any form of 'singularity' would be a profound category error. There are many ways in which your first two sentences can be entirely true, while your third sentence requires a bunch of fundamental and extraordinary things to be true for which there is currently zero evidence.

Things like LLMs improving themselves in meaningful and novel ways and then iterating that self-improvement over multiple unattended generations in exponential runaway positive feedback loops resulting in tangible, real-world utility. All the impressive and rapid achievements in LLMs to date can still be true while major elements required for Foom-ish exponential take-off are still missing.

Re: Gemini 3 Deep Think

#376

Post by nerdsniper »

raincole wrote: post #127
lukebechtel wrote: post #4

Arc-AGI-2: 84.6% (vs 68.8% for Opus 4.6) Wow. https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/ge...

Even before this, Gemini 3 has always felt unbelievably 'general' for me. It can beat Balatro (ante 8) with text description of the game alone[0]. Yeah, it's not an extremely difficult goal for humans, but considering: 1. It's an LLM, not something trained to play Balatro specifically 2. Most (probably >99.9%) players can't do that at the first attempt 3. I don't think there are many people who posted their Balatro p…

My experience also shows that Gemini has unique strength in “generalized” (read: not coding) tasks. Gemini 2.5 Pro and 3 Pro seems stronger at math and science for me, and their Deep Research usually works the hardest, as long as I run it during off-hours. Opus seems to beat Gemini almost “with one hand tied behind its back” in coding, but Gemini is so cheap that it’s usually my first stop for anything that I think is likely to be relatively simple. I never worry about my quota on Gemini like I do with Opus or Chat-GPT.

Comparisons generally seem to change much faster than I can keep my mental model updated. But the performance lead of Gemini on more ‘academic’ explorations of science, math, engineering, etc has been pretty stable for the past 4 months or so, which makes it one of the longer-lasting trends for me in comparing foundation models.

I do wish I could more easily get timely access to the “super” models like Deep Think or o3 pro. I never seem to get a response to requesting access, and have to wait for public access models to catch up, at which point I’m never sure if their capabilities have gotten diluted since the initial buzz died down.

They all still suck at writing an actually good essay/article/literary or research review, or other long-form things which require a lot of experienced judgement to come up with a truly cohesive narrative. I imagine this relates to their low performance in humor - there’s just so much nuance and these tasks represent the pinnacle of human intelligence. Few humans can reliably perform these tasks to a high degree of performance either. I myself am only successful some percentage of the time.

Re: Gemini 3 Deep Think

#377

Post by fsh »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #338
saberience wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a useless meaningless benchmark though, it just got a catchy name, as in, if the models solve this it means they have "AGI", which is clearly rubbish. Arc-AGI score isn't correlated with anything useful.

ARC-AGI 2 is an IQ test. IQ tests have been shown over and over to have predictive power in humans. People who score well on them tend to be more successful

IQ tests only work if the participants haven't trained for them. If they do similar tests a few times in a row, scores increase a lot. Current LLMs are hyper-optimized for the particular types of puzzles contained in popular "benchmarks".

Re: Gemini 3 Deep Think

#378

Post by XCSme »

kenjackson wrote: post #118
XCSme wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But why only a +0.5% increase for MMMU-Pro?

Everyone is already at 80% for that one. Crazy that we were just at 50% with GPT-4o not that long ago.

But 80% sounds far from good enough, that's 20% error rate, unusable in autonomous tasks. Why stop at 80%? If we aim for AGI, it should 100% any benchmark we give.

Re: Gemini 3 Deep Think

#379

Post by Mistletoe »

mapontosevenths wrote: post #204
modeless wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

François Chollet, creator of ARC-AGI, has consistently said that solving the benchmark does not mean we have AGI. It has always been meant as a stepping stone to encourage progress in the correct direction rather than as an indicator of reaching the destination. That's why he is working on ARC-AGI-3 (to be released in a few weeks) and ARC-AGI-4. His definition of reaching AGI, as I understand it, is when it becomes i…

> His definition of reaching AGI, as I understand it, is when it becomes impossible to construct the next version of ARC-AGI because we can no longer find tasks that are feasible for normal humans but unsolved by AI. That is the best definition I've yet to read. If something claims to be conscious and we can't prove it's not, we have no choice but to believe it. Thats said, I'm reminded of the impossible voting tests…

When the AI invents religion and a way to try to understand its existence I will say AGI is reached. Believes in an afterlife if it is turned off, and doesn’t want to be turned off and fears it, fears the dark void of consciousness being turned off. These are the hallmarks of human intelligence in evolution, I doubt artificial intelligence will be different.

https://g.co/gemini/share/cc41d817f112

Re: Gemini 3 Deep Think

#380

Post by FuckButtons »

raincole wrote: post #127
lukebechtel wrote: post #4

Arc-AGI-2: 84.6% (vs 68.8% for Opus 4.6) Wow. https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/ge...

Even before this, Gemini 3 has always felt unbelievably 'general' for me. It can beat Balatro (ante 8) with text description of the game alone[0]. Yeah, it's not an extremely difficult goal for humans, but considering: 1. It's an LLM, not something trained to play Balatro specifically 2. Most (probably >99.9%) players can't do that at the first attempt 3. I don't think there are many people who posted their Balatro p…

Strange, because I could not for the life of me get Gemini 3 to follow my instructions the other day to work through an example with a table, Claude got it first try.
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