How are they not overvalued? At some point OSS will be sufficient for most businesses, what then?
What do you value a company at that has gotten to $14b in revenue in 3 years and has 60%+ margin on inference? Just out of curiosity.
Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation
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Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
Pay attention to the outflow of tech investment in the stock market. That money is going to move into OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs. The valuations will be as big you are thinking because the market believes these companies will represent an entire basket of startups.
And why would anyone participate in their IPOs? They would be crazily overvalued, like Figma or worse.
To be fair, Facebook was at the time viewed by many as crazily overvalued.
Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation
#73How is Anthropic, OpenAI and xAi going to compete against the likes of Google that can spend $200 billion a year? It’s an impossible war and all these investors are throwing their money into a bottomless insatiable pit of money. Until the funding stops for one reason or another and then everyone loses all their money at once like a star that collapses into a black hole singularity in a femtosecond.
Well there's a good reason that OpenAI partnered up with Microsoft. The calculation is that the established big techs - Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta are all going to be significantly impacted by AI so it's not unreasonable to look at Anthropic at 10% of their market cap as a reasonable value. Would it be worth Apple to bring Anthropic in house? They failed to deliver AI themselves, they know the risks of being dependent on Google. If AI goes far enough it may totally remove Apple's differentiation.
Some of the Big Techs are building their own in house stuff (Meta, Google), but it wouldn't be crazy to see acquisitions by the others, especially if the market cools slightly. And then there's the possibility that these companies mature their revenue streams enough to start actually really throwing off money and paying off the investment.
Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation
#74How is Anthropic, OpenAI and xAi going to compete against the likes of Google that can spend $200 billion a year? It’s an impossible war and all these investors are throwing their money into a bottomless insatiable pit of money. Until the funding stops for one reason or another and then everyone loses all their money at once like a star that collapses into a black hole singularity in a femtosecond.
Google fucks up 90% of their products, why do you think Gemini is in the 10%?
Agree. Look at how miserably MSFT has failed at integrating AI tastefully in their business.
Google makes money selling ads. Nothing else matters.
Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation
#75Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation
#76How is Anthropic, OpenAI and xAi going to compete against the likes of Google that can spend $200 billion a year? It’s an impossible war and all these investors are throwing their money into a bottomless insatiable pit of money. Until the funding stops for one reason or another and then everyone loses all their money at once like a star that collapses into a black hole singularity in a femtosecond.
I'm trying paid tier Gemini and it doesn't allow to keep have personal chat history when you disable training on your data, on reload of the page your chat is gone. Even free tier of ChatGPT allows disabling training on your data while allowing to keep such basic functionality.
Some technical advancements are not worth it if you do not respect your users.
Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because Google has the money to build 10 different versions/iterations of Gemini and can essentially force one to work. They have most people's data and most people use them for mail/search/browser/maps as well. In my opinion though this is a race to the bottom rather than a winner takes all situation so I don't think anyone is coming out ahead once the dust settles.
This was the same argument made for Google Wave and Google+ and both completely tanked
The tech behind wave eventually made its way into Google docs though and pioneered collaborative document editing, so wasn't a complete failure even though the product itself was killed.
No comment on Google+, Google has a storied history of failure on any kind of social media/chat type products.
Where Google wins is just simply having enough money to outlive anyone else. As the saying goes "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" In this case, Google is the market and they can just keep throwing money at the wall until OpenAI, Anthropic, etc. go under.
Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation
#78How is Anthropic, OpenAI and xAi going to compete against the likes of Google that can spend $200 billion a year? It’s an impossible war and all these investors are throwing their money into a bottomless insatiable pit of money. Until the funding stops for one reason or another and then everyone loses all their money at once like a star that collapses into a black hole singularity in a femtosecond.
Google fucks up 90% of their products, why do you think Gemini is in the 10%?
Because the product quality doesn't matter if the competition isn't making any money.
Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation
#79How are they not overvalued? At some point OSS will be sufficient for most businesses, what then?
What do you value a company at that has gotten to $14b in revenue in 3 years and has 60%+ margin on inference? Just out of curiosity.
I am struggling with this because I have an Anthropic offer vs another equivalent offer that is all cash.
But project out forwards.
- What happens when Google builds a similar model? Or even Meta, as far behind as they are? They have more than Anthropic in cash flow to pour into these models.
- What happens when OSS is "enough" for most cases? Why would anyone pay 60% margins on inference?
What is Anthropic's moat? The UX is nice, but it can be copied. And other companies will have similarly intelligent models eventually. Margins will then be a race to the bottom, and the real winners will be GPU infra.
Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
Microsoft is deeply entwined in OpenAI and has obvious reasons to dogfood, yet their people are using Anthropic solutions. Valuation behemoth OpenAI has been forced by the market to use Anthropic standards a couple times, having no comparable solutions of their own. … I can see it.
Anthropic's marketing somehow punches hard. Not sure why, but the stuff they do sticks. Not because the products are great, but because the way they communicate about it gives people the right feeling. They do have legitimately the best coding model now for most tasks, and for narrative prose, but the marketing stuck and people stan'd them even when they were trailing.
Anthropic develops tools for developers and power users which are the actual people doing the evangelizing and marketing for them.