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Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

nytimes.com

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Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#361

Post by bpodgursky »

Eddy_Viscosity2 wrote: post #153
lilytweed wrote: post #114

As someone else mentioned, there’s some speculation in aviation subreddits that the bounds of the altitude restriction map to the MANPAD capabilities that some cartels are purported to have. https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1s4zt/comment/o... My read is that the admin is planning forceful strikes on the cartels within Mexico and is worried about their ability to retaliate by taking down US aircraft across…

Even Cartels know that shooting down civilian aircraft in US airspace would be an escalation that would lead to heavy retaliation. Doesn't seem likely to me.

Yes that might be the high-level logic, but if you give a MANPAD to a 19 year old sicario on meth, accidents do happen.

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#362

Post by colechristensen »

boringg wrote: post #302
antonymoose wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Millions of dead Vietnamese. In any case that was a war against a hardened, experienced, determined enemy fighting for its freedom from any form of colonial occupation, both as a formal military and as an insurgent force in South Vietnam. I scarcely think the Mexican population would rise up in defense of the cartels here.

I think a lot of people would be cheering on the destruction of the cartels.

The destruction of cartels would involve careful policing and corruption controls, the best American administrations have been bad at this. The worst... can barely put its pants on much less dismantle foreign organized crime. You can't shoot a missile at a cartel and poof it's just gone.

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#363

Post by morpheuskafka »

guerrilla wrote: post #241
sva_ wrote: post #200

> Airline sources told Reuters the grounding of flights was believed to be tied to the Pentagon's use of counterdrone technology to address Mexican drug cartels' use of drones of the U.S.-Mexico border. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-halts-all-flights-texass...

I personally don't think that's the whole story. They're likely going to act against the cartels to take out cross-border drone capabilities and are preparing for S-A retaliation as well.

A cartel using a SAM against a US civilian aircraft would massively solidify public opinion against them just like 9/11 or the Iran hostage crisis. The US has been trying to extent the "foreign terrorist" label and casus belli to drug activities forever to justify military operations (ex. the "arrest" of Maduro was for drugs, not oil/Cuba/political stuff). That would be a massive self-own on the cartels part. (And if it did happen, just like 9/11, it would be used as justification for anything even remotely immigration or drug related at every level.)

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#364

Post by morpheuskafka »

datsci_est_2015 wrote: post #245
sva_ wrote: post #200

> Airline sources told Reuters the grounding of flights was believed to be tied to the Pentagon's use of counterdrone technology to address Mexican drug cartels' use of drones of the U.S.-Mexico border. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-halts-all-flights-texass...

This admin is focused on the message of stopping the inflow of drugs to the US. There are probably some true believers, and there are probably some reactionary accelerationists. There’s also significant evidence of amateurism, misinformation, and incompetence. All of that coming together, I see this action coming out of meeting where - one party was convinced that this would solve the fentanyl epidemic - one party wa…

> one party was busy making “bets” on Kalshi

This would arguably be much more severe -- and quite likely already happening -- than the whole "congress trading stocks" thing because most of those (besides the sports ones) tie very directly to government actions in a way that the economy or a large company in generally doesn't as predictably.

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#365

Post by elictronic »

fabian2k wrote: post #65

There is a circular restriction around the airport and a trapezoid one next to the city ( https://elpasomatters.org/2026/02/11/unexplained-faa-order-s... ). What are the plausible explanations here? I can't think of anything except military action against Mexico (or the cartels inside Mexico). But even that doesn't fit well. A suspected terror attack could explain the airspace around the airport, but not the weird tr…

Probably laser shootdown of drug carrying drones.

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#366

Post by radlad »

guerrilla wrote: post #315
radlad wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You're forgetting all the times the US failed too, and those cases weren't even on its own border. Doesn't the US have more resources at home, not less? Wouldn't a strike on US soil be a larger escalation and dictate a swift and larger response?

This is real life. They don't to cause a problem they can't solve.

You are now leaning your premise as an argument. I disagree that it would cause a problem.

I believe it's unrealistic that "the cartel" would strike back against the USG, particularly on US soil.

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#367

Post by codys »

ajross wrote: post #353
boringg wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm merely passing on live information to update the conversation. Don't shoot the messenger.

And I was merely commenting on the likely veracity of the quote you posted. No shooting happening here.

It seems like the messenger might endorse the message though, and is attempting to be coy.

Folks should be careful of people using the "messenger" title to attempt to obtain the appearance of impartiality.

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#368

Post by adolph »

antonymoose wrote: post #237
Noaidi wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How did that full force of the US military work out in Vietnam?

Millions of dead Vietnamese. In any case that was a war against a hardened, experienced, determined enemy fighting for its freedom from any form of colonial occupation, both as a formal military and as an insurgent force in South Vietnam. I scarcely think the Mexican population would rise up in defense of the cartels here.

A non-aligned population will look out for their own interests and are aware that the attention of the US is temporary but the cuadillismo that lead to cartels are a durable cultural artifact.

  The Battle of Culiacán, also known locally as the Culiacanazo and Black 
  Thursday, was a failed attempt to capture Ovidio Guzmán López, son of Sinaloa 
  Cartel kingpin Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, who was wanted in the United States 
  for drug trafficking.
  
  Around 700 cartel gunmen began to attack civilian, government and military 
  targets around the city, despite orders from Ovidio sent at security forces' 
  request. Massive towers of smoke could be seen rising from burning cars and 
  vehicles. The cartels were well-equipped, with improvised armored vehicles, 
  bulletproof vests, .50 caliber (12.7 mm) rifles, rocket launchers, grenade 
  launchers and heavy machine guns.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Culiac%C3%A1n

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#369

Post by frumplestlatz »

JumpinJack_Cash wrote: post #194
lilytweed wrote: post #114

As someone else mentioned, there’s some speculation in aviation subreddits that the bounds of the altitude restriction map to the MANPAD capabilities that some cartels are purported to have. https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1s4zt/comment/o... My read is that the admin is planning forceful strikes on the cartels within Mexico and is worried about their ability to retaliate by taking down US aircraft across…

Of course, the US elected the only celebrity of the 80s and 90s who hates blow. On the other hand a careful analysis of the plumbing system of Trump's Tower and Trump's Hotels in general would reveal possibly the highest concentration of coke than any other building in the world considering the intersection of wealth and istrionic personalities who called those apartments home at one time or the other. Fate sure love…

> But hey you can gulp 60 oz of super strong energy drinks which equate to about 5-6 fat lines

Are you joking?

Look, I’m no stranger to drugs, but coke is not a “60oz energy drink” and its potential for generally destroying someone’s life is, while not at the same level, definitely in the same ballpark as crack, heroin, and meth.

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#370

Post by mikkupikku »

542354234235 wrote: post #344
BoredPositron wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right rationality is their strongest character trait.

How are they not rational? Violence is a tool. They operate an illegal business so they can’t sue other parties for breach of contract. They can't call the police if they are robbed or file an insurance claim for what was taken. Even the over-the-top violence has a rationale. They aren't punishing the victims as much as they are attempting to broadcast that there is a higher price to be paid than any gain from giving…

Lots of organized crime around the world manages to operate without cutting all the limbs off somebody then arranging them like flowers in a "vase" made out of the poor soul's ribcage. The cartels take violence far beyond what is pragmatically necessary. Their system of crime breeds excessive violence and insanity.
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