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Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

nytimes.com

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Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#212
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shooting down civilian American aircraft like that would seem to just be for an even more strong response… Seems unlikely.

If only this was a certainty - Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down with 298 people killed 12 years ago but still no one was directly punished for it...

Malaysia isn't going to attack Russia.

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is nuclear test. Airport circle to secure the transport of the device to the ground adjacent to the test site. Trapezoid is the test site, wider on the side that is less controllable (border-facing). Disconnected because two separate teams executed in parallel without informed oversight.

While Mexican side has no restrictions - that would be supremely dumb even for a primary school level of thinking. Tons of civilians dead with clear reason who caused it, completely preventable. Fantasy often likes extreme options but most probably saner reason like expected strike on cartels and their retaliation is whats happening.

>supremely dumb even for a primary school level of thinking

So 100% Trump

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Well, this wins for silliest non-alien theory, with bonus points for the hyperbole of “concentration camp” to describe illegal immigrant detention.

In what way is it "hyperbole"? From the leaks and reporting I've come across it seems like a reasonable description.

It's not labour camps, and not extermination camps, but rather places where people are 'concentrated' while the bureaucracy figures out where to move them next.

If anything it's really weird to present it as having to do with supposedly illicit immigration, since citizens and people with residence permits are vacuumed up as well.

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even Cartels know that shooting down civilian aircraft in US airspace would be an escalation that would lead to heavy retaliation. Doesn't seem likely to me.

Coming from groups that just pickup busses of people to murder, I wouldn’t be so sure that firing back at the US would be out of the question.

The distinction is those are cases where they are murdering Mexican citizens. If a cartel murdered a bus of people in America I suspect most any administration would retaliate in some form.

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#217

As someone else mentioned, there’s some speculation in aviation subreddits that the bounds of the altitude restriction map to the MANPAD capabilities that some cartels are purported to have. https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1s4zt/comment/o... My read is that the admin is planning forceful strikes on the cartels within Mexico and is worried about their ability to retaliate by taking down US aircraft across…

Sounds like a great way to reinforce the "We ready to move along from Epstein" narrative.

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#218

As someone else mentioned, there’s some speculation in aviation subreddits that the bounds of the altitude restriction map to the MANPAD capabilities that some cartels are purported to have. https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1s4zt/comment/o... My read is that the admin is planning forceful strikes on the cartels within Mexico and is worried about their ability to retaliate by taking down US aircraft across…

Knowing the restriction goes to 18k certainly says that either S-A or A-S reach must be limited but the as your post points out no buffer between MANPAD actual range and the limit imposed. I think unlikely to say MANPAD, specifically. There's a small private airfield to the west with only a single victor airway connecting to el-paso. the victors end at 17999 ft, effectively cutting traffic for non-commercial or non-b…

[deleted]

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My read is most likely some kind of strike on the cartels. There hasn’t seemed to be any significant US military buildup so it’s something they’ll be able to do with a smaller force. The trapezoid makes me worried about a ground incision there- it extends to the border and would be a cover space for an invasion force. Absolutely bonkers that we are even having this discussion. The TFR is most likely contingency plann…

What’s also bonkers is our political whimpiness that allowed this to happen, right? If there is a drone response it’s pretty damning evidence that we are way too dovish in our policy against drug smuggling up until now

It doesn't say much either way.

I'm from the UK, we had the ("real") IRA put a RPG-22 anti-tank rocket at the walls of MI6 HQ (the UK version of the CIA): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_MI6_attack

Dangerous things like these are not expensive, compared to even low budget small-time group.

Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport

#220

As someone else mentioned, there’s some speculation in aviation subreddits that the bounds of the altitude restriction map to the MANPAD capabilities that some cartels are purported to have. https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1s4zt/comment/o... My read is that the admin is planning forceful strikes on the cartels within Mexico and is worried about their ability to retaliate by taking down US aircraft across…

I think it's simpler. It's going to make the cartel drones easier to spot.
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