The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline • Hacker News Board

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#361

Post by brettgriffin » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:01 PM UTC

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

> you have to make your country/society a place where people will want to have children and feel/know that their children's lives will be good ones.

Empirically, that group exists, but they're often the minority to the "I just don't want kids" and "focus on other things" groups[0].

As others have pointed out, the world's population grew dramatically in most other times in history when the world around us was more harsh and less certain.

[0]https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-...

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#362

Post by exodys » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:01 PM UTC

This may offend some, but I think the large amount of women joining the labor force may be a factor. American society, pre-WWII, usually had only one member of the household at work. More often than not it was the man who went to work, and the women stayed home to take care of the children. American society, pre-1930s (the Great Depression saw the rise of the female workers) was build on a one-income household.

And yes, there is a big income disparity in the US. However, the fact that labor has practically doubled is another thing.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#363

Post by epistasis » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:01 PM UTC

Aurornis wrote: post #274

epistasis wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if what you describe is a consequence of suburbia. In any sort of proper town, there's quick and easy access to parks where you encounter people on the walk to the park, which gives a great sense of community. When you have to pack up the kids in a car you are isolated from community, except through the negative community of bad driving. The stay at home parents k know are not lonely and go out and engage wi…

Suburbia is the easiest place to take the kids and go find things to do on a walk. > The stay at home parents k know are not lonely and go out and engage with other parents and have perhaps a far stronger community than the working parent. Same. As long as you don’t literally stay at home, being a parent with kids is such an easy way to meet more people.

That is not my experience with California suburbia in any way, it is extremely desolate and lonely compared to any proper town or city I have encountered. But I'm very glad that others are having better experiences!

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#364

Post by mattmaroon » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:01 PM UTC

matthewkayin wrote: post #339

mattmaroon wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I certainly don’t agree with the things the administration is doing, but this seems like just hysteria. You are putting off your family growth plans because they might deport a theoretical future undocumented nanny? It is strange to me how generalized partisan fear has become.

Don't be ridiculous, talking about "partisan fear". They have taken away documented, American citizens without due process. When armed men can take you out of your home or your car and whisk you away without a judicial warrant and without due process, it is very reasonable to be afraid.

It’s really not. Define taken away. They’ve absolutely detained some citizens, then let them go.

And again, not defending what they are doing, they are awful,but you are probably more likely to be hit by lightning than you are to have any of your family planning go wrong because of them if you are a full citizen. (If you are undocumented here right now, yeah, totally.)

Hysterical people think they are being rational and stuff like this is exactly what they say.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#365

Post by jmyeet » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:01 PM UTC

Capitalism. The problem is capitalism. The endless quest for ever-increasing profits just expands wealth inequality. Millennials went through this when the job pipeline died in 2008 (ie entry level positions disappeared). We now have a huge number of people who are laden with debt they’ll never repay and many will never own a home or retire.

Illegal immigration exists to suppress wages of both documented and undocumented people. It’s to increase profits. Certain industries will collapse without it.

And as the global hegemonic superpower, imperialism is the highest form of capitalism. Destabilizing other countries is a tool for exploitation.

Immigration has been the only thing propping up population growth.

I honestly see the US collapsing in our lifetimes. The billionaires will flee. Empires don’t die quietly or quickly however. It’s going to be violent and drawn out.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#366

Post by tbirdny » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:01 PM UTC

cco wrote: post #251

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

That doesn't seem to be supported by the data, the "nicer" and richer a country becomes, birth rates drop. And basically the opposite is true for countries with a high birth rate. How do you square those facts with your view here?

Because it's not just money. It's time and money. You can have lots of money and nice things, but if you don't have time to raise your kids, you can't do it. And if you had the time, you wouldn't have the money.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#367

Post by stephc_int13 » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:05 PM UTC

lukeschlather wrote: post #314

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

> No amount of baby cash There is an amount of baby cash that would work. But we're talking enough cash to hire a competent housekeeper/nanny until the child is old enough to take care of themself.

And afford a house large enough for the parents, children, and a nanny. This is a bigger issue than it may seem.

Some people argue that in the past, grandparents would take care of babies and young children, or that families raised kids in much smaller homes.

That’s true. But there’s a recursive effect at play: most people expect to raise their children in conditions similar to, or better than, their own upbringing, not worse.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#368

Post by jalapenoi » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:05 PM UTC

dataviz1000 wrote: post #257

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

There is another way to go about this. Statistically immigrants from Latin America have lower crime rates than the average American. It is possible to increase population AND decrease the crime rate by allowing immigrants into the country. Personally, as someone with capital, having people who also work hard for less salary is beneficial. Most native born Americans are much poorer than I am so I understand their fear…

[flagged]

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#369

Post by malux85 » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:06 PM UTC

Bratmon wrote: post #353

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

> My take on it is: you have to make your country/society a place where people will want to have children and feel/know that their children's lives will be good ones. It's funny to me that of all the crazy crackpot theories on fertility Twitter, you picked the craziest and crackpotiest. I'm actually really eager to hear why you think Chad, Somalia, and DR Congo are the countries where people feel the most optimistic…

Im no expert but my gut feeling is that theres more than 1 reason people have kids.

In "richer" western countries one of the strongest factors in that decision is "will my child have a good life" - that seems pretty sane to me, I wouldn't say that was the craziest and crackpotiest.

But maybe in other poorer countries it's something like "having sex is the only pleasure I get in this unbearable hellscape of an existance"

Very different things

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#370

Post by influx » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:06 PM UTC

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

It’s surprising that effective, cheap contraceptives aren’t on the list.

We’ve only had a couple generations where this was widely available, and somehow we’re shocked that populations decline afterwards?

Thats kind of the point.