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Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks

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Re: Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks

#31
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here are estimates of the value of Bitcoin currently held (mostly via seizure) by the US government: https://www.theblock.co/post/374636/the-daily-us-government-... https://www.mexc.com/learn/article/how-much-bitcoin-does-the...

How can you seize it without the private keys? Do they force it out of the people involved?

You find the private keys wherever the owners stored them.

Re: Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks

#32
post #11

The myth that bitcoin is an effective store of value (aka "digital gold") has just died. The proof is available in your crypto wallet. Real gold bullion has now been fully "digitized". You can buy and hold real bullion without taking delivery, without transactions fees and without dealing with tbe schenanigans of unregulated markets and manipulators. Over the past year of unprecedented marketplace turmoil and upheava…

If gold rises (and therefore falls) as crazy as Bitcoin, then why is it better

Excellent question.

The answer is that "real gold" has a long, long history as a stable store of value and as a result, more people know it, trust it and are willing to buy it when the chips hit the fan.

Here is a chart showing the price of gold over the past decade.

https://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html

Here is a corresponding chart for bitcoin.

https://charts.bitbo.io/price/

But I would argue that the most important and telling part is what has ocurred recently, after a crypto fan assumed personal control over the world's largest economy.

Re: Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks

#33

The myth that bitcoin is an effective store of value (aka "digital gold") has just died. The proof is available in your crypto wallet. Real gold bullion has now been fully "digitized". You can buy and hold real bullion without taking delivery, without transactions fees and without dealing with tbe schenanigans of unregulated markets and manipulators. Over the past year of unprecedented marketplace turmoil and upheava…

Having an app that tells you that you have a thing is not the same as physically having the thing. Owning gold in that sense is no different than owning bitcoin: They both rely on a societal fiction that you can actually get the value of the asset when you expect that you can. In other words: The presence of a reliable financial and legal system is what makes the myth real for both assets.

We forget that the idea that the gold could be “further away from”/“not actually in the physical possession of” the human who “owns” was not universally accepted at all points in history. In a weird way, bitcoin is more forthright in that it says out loud “trust me this is valuable because we all agree it just is” where non-custodial ownership of gold tries to imply that there’s less need for this trust because there’s an actual shiny rock on the planet somewhere and humans have a history of valuing shiny rocks.

Ultimately it seems like it’s the “trust” part that mostly matters. Bitcoin is certainly harder to trust at the moment. But gold is rallying because there is less trust overall. That’s not good for either asset.

Re: Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks

#34

its kind of fun now, in the 'post crypto' era. i used to think, well the 'serious' stuff is stocks, PMs, RE, etc., but crypto is a 'shitcoin', a 'gamble'. but infact, it recently dawned on me, its (almost) the other way around. everything is a 'shitcoin'. your real estate is a 'shitcoin', and can get 'rugged' with crime rates, or tax band shifts, or legislative changes with the sole purpose of winning populist votes.…

> i'm actually not sure which is more risky: holding bitcoin or real estate. genuinely, which is more dangerous?

You can look at past statistics and volatility. The answer is clearly that Bitcoin is far more risky on average. This is an objective question with an objective answer.

Re: Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks

#35

So a minus of about 45% from the all time high three months ago? If this is it for this cycle, that would indicate the volatility of Bitcoin went down significantly. Taking a look at the Bitcoin to USD price chart, I see roughly these numbers: 2013: $1,100 -> $238 = -78% 2017: $19,000 -> $3,500 = -82% 2021: $68,000 -> $16,000 = -76% It will be interesting to watch if the volatility really stays this low suddenly. If…

As others have pointed out, it also runs up less in percentage terms during the resurgence. If, as you posit, Bitcoin is becoming less volatile, then the question will be what the demand looks like when it is no longer a way of getting exposure to potential large upside. In other words, a lot of people have bought it in the hope that it will double or more. How many will buy it in the hope that it doesn't go down? Perhaps it will happen, but it's not obvious.

Re: Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks

#36

Last time I heard bitcoin was in free fall and doomed it was at $18K... (I dont own any bitcoin and believe the world would be a better place without cryptocurrencies)

i reckon this time it will touch $30k before hitting new high of $200k

It seems to have stabilized around $70k. Obviously after it had "stabilized" at $90k for two months, so it might drop further. But if I had to submit a bet I would guess it will fluctuate around the current level for another couple months before some random event catapults it to $150k, followed by the next "crash".

But with the current political volatility anything might happen

Re: Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks

#37

its kind of fun now, in the 'post crypto' era. i used to think, well the 'serious' stuff is stocks, PMs, RE, etc., but crypto is a 'shitcoin', a 'gamble'. but infact, it recently dawned on me, its (almost) the other way around. everything is a 'shitcoin'. your real estate is a 'shitcoin', and can get 'rugged' with crime rates, or tax band shifts, or legislative changes with the sole purpose of winning populist votes.…

Well, it would depend greatly on which real estate you mean. There are empty cities in China which testify that real estate can, in fact, be very risky, but most real estate is not like that.

Lots of other places where it is certainly not safe, but in the end you can at least use it as a place to live (unlike the Chinese ghost cities), whereas Bitcoin does not have any intrinsic use (even T-bills can be used to pay government debt such as taxes).

Re: Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks

#38
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't tell if genuine or sarcasm ...

very broad extrapolation of the previous two 'cycles'. after a peak, it tends to crash to 20-30% of previous peak value, goes sideways for a year or two, then goes up to 2x its previous peak. the 'four year cycle' is perhaps moreso the 'US presidential cycle'.

Bitcoin has already largely separated from the 4 year cycle.

Re: Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks

#39
post #11

The myth that bitcoin is an effective store of value (aka "digital gold") has just died. The proof is available in your crypto wallet. Real gold bullion has now been fully "digitized". You can buy and hold real bullion without taking delivery, without transactions fees and without dealing with tbe schenanigans of unregulated markets and manipulators. Over the past year of unprecedented marketplace turmoil and upheava…

If gold rises (and therefore falls) as crazy as Bitcoin, then why is it better

Because they're not actually equivalents. Gold has unique properties as a material, unique properties that are useful. It'd be more widely used in industry if it wasn't such a scarce and expensive material. Bitcoin on the other hand, has no use other than for conducting trade. Because of this, they inherently carry different risks as an asset.

Re: Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks

#40
It’s my personal belief that btc has been the currency of foreign influence operations ie for paying media figures to influence popular opinion and sentiments. I believe this can be most readily seen in the US right and maga. The messaging is all very consistent across YouTube, x, fox, news nation etc across weeks, months and years.

Brexit was a proof of concept, certainly it has spread.

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