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Italy Orders Jail Terms for 7 Who Didn’t Warn of Deadly Earthquake

nytimes.com

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Re: Italy Orders Jail Terms for 7 Who Didn’t Warn of Deadly Earthquake

#4

Post by napolux »

callmeed wrote: post #2

I recall hearing of Italy having a poor legal/justice system. Can anyone comment on this verdict as it relates to Italy? Would these scientists be found guilty in Germany, Spain, Greece, etc.?

Well, the sentence is not really about "earthquake prediction", but about the fact that some hours before the big earthquake alarms from the INGV (the italian institute for earthquake monitoring, one of the best in the world) were ignored.

Of course nobody can predict earthquakes, but in L'Aquila's quake there were strong evidence of "something happening", and they were ignored: that's why they were found guilty.

P.s. I'm from Italy

Re: Italy Orders Jail Terms for 7 Who Didn’t Warn of Deadly Earthquake

#5

Post by danmaz74 »

napolux wrote: post #4
callmeed wrote: post #2

I recall hearing of Italy having a poor legal/justice system. Can anyone comment on this verdict as it relates to Italy? Would these scientists be found guilty in Germany, Spain, Greece, etc.?

Well, the sentence is not really about "earthquake prediction", but about the fact that some hours before the big earthquake alarms from the INGV (the italian institute for earthquake monitoring, one of the best in the world) were ignored. Of course nobody can predict earthquakes, but in L'Aquila's quake there were strong evidence of "something happening", and they were ignored: that's why they were found guilty. P.s…

There were no "big earthquake alarms from the INGV", that's the whole point. If you have sources that say the contrary, I would be interested in reading them.

Re: Italy Orders Jail Terms for 7 Who Didn’t Warn of Deadly Earthquake

#8

Post by gagabity »

This story actually seems to be more complex than most western media is reporting it, apparently the scientists issued false "everything is ok" messages possibly for political reasons, against what their data actually showed. At least that's what I picked up from the Reddit discussion.

Re: Italy Orders Jail Terms for 7 Who Didn’t Warn of Deadly Earthquake

#9

Post by stefantalpalaru »

gagabity wrote: post #8

This story actually seems to be more complex than most western media is reporting it, apparently the scientists issued false "everything is ok" messages possibly for political reasons, against what their data actually showed. At least that's what I picked up from the Reddit discussion.

You're right, they held a big conference to reassure people that everything is OK and they should remain in their houses. One week later the big one came and some of those who listened to the scientists died.

Not as outrageous as what the media is reporting, but probably more interesting from the point of view of a scientist's responsibility.

Re: Italy Orders Jail Terms for 7 Who Didn’t Warn of Deadly Earthquake

#10

Post by HerrMonnezza »

(Mostly an edited repost of a comment I made in yesterday's discussion on the same topic.)

A blog post on Nature.com about a month ago explains better why they were on trial, which is not the misprediction that an earthquake was imminent:

  The prosecution’s closing arguments [...] made it clear that
  the scientists are not accused of failing to predict the
  earthquake. “Even six-year old kids know that earthquakes can not be
  predicted,” he said. “The goal of the meeting was very different:
  the scientists were supposed to evaluate whether the seismic
  sequence could be considered a precursor event, to assess what
  damages had already happened at that point, to discuss how to
  mitigate risks.” Picuti said the panel members did not fulfill these
  commitments, and that their risk analysis was “flawed, inadequate,
  negligent and deceptive”, resulting in wrong information being given
  to citizens.
Source: http://blogs.nature.com/news/2012/09/porsecution-asks-for-fo...

If you can read Italian, there are a few online newspapers have comprehensive explanations about the trial matter:

[1]: http://www.giornalettismo.com/archives/548491/terremoto-laqu...

[2]: http://newrassegna.camera.it/chiosco_new/pagweb/getPDFartico...

[3]: http://www.cattivamaestra.it/2012/10/sentenza-processo-aquil...

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