L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists found guilty of manslaughter • Hacker News Board

Re: L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists found guilty of manslaughter

#91

Post by Uchikoma » Tue, Oct 23, 2012, 7:48 AM UTC

mturmon wrote: post #8

jpwagner wrote: post #2

This is unbelievable. Is there anywhere to find all of the facts? This article doesn't give background info. It took some digging to find that indeed the scientists had given a reassuring statement, though it had an expected but-we-cant-be-sure admonition, beforehand.

Here is a story with a good background on the events. It's more complex than you would guess: http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100622/full/465992a.html In particular, at least one member of the civil defense bureaucracy went out of his way to say there was a consensus that there was no danger (even though there was not such a strong consensus): "Immediately after that meeting, De Bernardinis and Barberi, acting presid…

Your "at least" wording shows bias. There was one.

Re: L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists found guilty of manslaughter

#92

Post by Uchikoma » Tue, Oct 23, 2012, 7:50 AM UTC

napolux wrote: post #89

Well, the sentence is not really about "earthquake prediction", but about the fact that some hours before the big earthquake alarms from the INGV (the italian institute for earthquake monitoring, one of the best in the world) were ignored. Of course nobody can predict earthquakes, but in L'Aquila's quake there were strong evidence of "something happening", and they were ignored: that's why they were found guilty. P.s…

Any sources for the "INGV" alarms and the "strong evidence" and that they "were ignored"?

Because the other sources say that there were small shocks before and the scientists consciously decided based on what they know that this does not make an earthquake more likely.

Re: L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists found guilty of manslaughter

#93

Post by Uchikoma » Tue, Oct 23, 2012, 7:55 AM UTC

HerrMonnezza wrote: post #74

A blog post [0] about a month ago explains better why they are on trial: The prosecution’s closing arguments [...] made it clear that the scientists are not accused of failing to predict the earthquake. “Even six-year old kids know that earthquakes can not be predicted,” he said. “The goal of the meeting was very different: the scientists were supposed to evaluate whether the seismic sequence could be considered a pr…

What you quote says:

1. "They were not accused of failing to predict the earthquake" 2. "whether the seismic sequence could be considered a precursor event"

Re: L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists found guilty of manslaughter

#94

Post by doetoe » Tue, Oct 23, 2012, 8:02 AM UTC

patio11 wrote: post #23

This is crazy, but I'll note that it isn't a peculiarly Italian form of crazy. People rush to find scapegoats after every disaster. In the future, consider being as skeptical of those accusations as you were when people accused folks you identify with, like scientists.

People will everywhere rush to find scapegoats. What is much more worrisome is when the court supports them. The first thing happens everywhere, the second shouldn't happen in a civilized country

Re: L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists found guilty of manslaughter

#95

Post by wisty » Tue, Oct 23, 2012, 8:23 AM UTC

eddanger wrote: post #39

wisty wrote: post #15

Predicting an earthquake is predicting when a bent wooden ruler will snap. Sometimes it creaks before it snaps. Sometimes it creaks, and doesn't snap. Sometimes it just snaps. The way to prevent deaths from earthquakes is to ensure buildings can survive them. Modern buildings collapsed in the quake. I wonder if they were built to standard, or if a few corners were cut?

If the bender neglected to tell the observers to wear eye protection and the unthinkable happened, they should be held accountable. A ruler in the eye is no way to start a Monday.

I bet the scientists were recommending appropriate building codes, which weren't being correctly implemented.

Re: L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists found guilty of manslaughter

#96

Post by smogzer » Tue, Oct 23, 2012, 8:29 AM UTC

If the data (plots, spectograms, etc) was made public on realtime the opinions/warnings would be issued by independent scientists or ordinary people or algorithms that would issue the chance of something happening and nobody would get punished.

RAW DATA NOW.

Re: L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists found guilty of manslaughter

#97

Post by gioele » Tue, Oct 23, 2012, 8:48 AM UTC

kevinalexbrown wrote: post #35

This is an extremely important case, in that it underlies a central concern in scientific reporting, and it threatens to change the risks associated with scientific innovation and communication. For instance, if scientists at a pharmaceutical company issue unfounded assurances that a drug is safer than it is in truth, consumers might have a reasonable case. On the other hand, predicting earthquakes is so difficult, e…

> The minutes of the 31 March meeting

Before that meeting, some of the scientists have been "used" by various politicians and high-level civil servant in their public speeches and interviews with the media. There are records of the director of the nation-wide emergency task-force being being interviewed and saying things like "After these afternoon quakes there is nothing to be feared, I can assure you. My fellow colleague and quake researcher can tell you the same", and one of the convicted scientists cues in "Sure, there is nothing to be feared. Indeed, these small earthquakes have released a lot of energy, making a big earthquake impossible". _Impossible_. That is not correct scientific communication, that is being the wingman of a politician being interviewed by national TV.

The same board of scientists have been found legally responsible for other similar statements, for example for not green-lighting the evacuation of the student's campus. The engineering students noticed strange cracks on the walls and notified the emergency task-force who replied: "First, the building is safe, we have had it tested few month ago; second, they said on TV that there are not going to be big earthquakes". The main building of campus collapsed.

The government imposed a "everything is safe, do not worry" view. This was a political decision and the board members let the politicians use their scientific credibility for their political agenda. This is what is being punished here. It is their behaviour and the words they said on TV that is being addressed, not the content of the technical minutes.

Anyway, there is a point of the sentence that is a bit scary. The whole board is being punished, not just the head of the board and the others who spoke before the meeting. The court considers the board a single body, and this is a bit strange and worrisome.

Re: L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists found guilty of manslaughter

#98

Post by Mordor » Tue, Oct 23, 2012, 8:54 AM UTC

I know this position disagrees with what everyone's saying but here it is:

- scientists need to be held accountable in a court of law

- safety must always come first

- evacuation, while seemingly over the top, should be a way of life in an earthquake zone.

Who survived 9/11? Those who evacuated regardless of the risks and advice given at the time.

Re: L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists found guilty of manslaughter

#99

Post by davidw » Tue, Oct 23, 2012, 8:58 AM UTC

kitsune_ wrote: post #4

I can wholeheartedly recommend a documentary called Draquila – L'Italia che trema [1] about the L'Aquila earthquake. As many of my Italian friends tell me, Italy is an absolutely corrupt shit hole. I remember a scene where they showed recordings of civil protection officials gloating about the disaster on the phone, right after it happened. They talked about the opportunity to make money [2]. The head of the national…

> absolutely corrupt shit hole

While it's corrupt, labelling it a 'shit hole' is going way too far.

For those interested in a detailed book about what's good and bad, and what needs to happen, I'd recommend:

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B008F86HBK/?tag=dedasys-20

Re: L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists found guilty of manslaughter

#100

Post by mahesh_rm » Tue, Oct 23, 2012, 9:12 AM UTC

We live in a land where silence is king Whispers have all disappeared Cry for an echo, you won't hear a thing Silence is king around here Silence is king around here Desperate measures come from desperate times I don't regret what I have done If my actions made you speak your mind Angry words are better than none

I am Italian. Sense does not understand how things work around here, Poetry does. Galileo could have been jailed 2 years ago. As a fledgling phd entrepreneur, at 28, I am leaving Italy.