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Why software stocks are getting pummelled

economist.com

101–110 of 285 posts

Re: Why software stocks are getting pummelled

#101
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm at a large company that is building connections between all of its different financial systems. The primary problem being faced is NOT speed to code things, the primary problem at large companies is getting business aligned with tech (communication) and getting alignment across all the different orgs on data ownership, access, and security. AI currently doesn't solve any of this. Throw in needing to deal with reg…

> getting business aligned with tech (communication) and getting alignment across all the different orgs This is what a CEO is supposed to do. I wonder if CEOs are the ones OK with their data being used and sent to large corps like MS, Oracle, etc.

Makes me wonder if they are getting ripe for disruption. Not by a new business model, but a new operating model where a CEO will be tech/ai-aware and push through all these kinds of things.

Re: Why software stocks are getting pummelled

#102

> The fear is that these [AI] tools are allowing companies to create much of the software they need themselves. AI-generated code still requires software engineers to build, test, debug, deploy, secure, monitor, be on-call, support, handle incidents, and so on. That's very expensive. It is much cheaper to pay a small monthly fee to a SaaS company.

Lol. ServiceNow, Oracle, Workday, etc are not small monthly fees. That's what the market is shitting on. (Oracle is different, given the corruption and OpenAI grift angle.)

My buddy works for a company like these. He landed a $5M contract last year, which netted him almost $800k. There's alot of fat to be cooked out of this stuff, and AI will help smaller entrants attack those margins.

AI-based startups like Vanta make it much easier for companies to meet the compliance bullshit the large companies require. Again, it will drive more competition == better values for customers.

Re: Why software stocks are getting pummelled

#103

The Value of software is going down, this much is clear to most people. It will continue to demand proper engineering for its creation and operation. But AI will lead to an increase of unique one-of-a-kind systems created by very small teams. And the world will increasingly rely on these unique systems. SaaS companies need to start reading the writting on the wall, their massive valuations enjoyed when software was h…

Everyone says that but I don't see anyone cooking up the next photoshop and selling it at $3/month. Why are we not seeing more options of every tool? Most Saas companies are sales companies at their core rather than software companies. And those sales people are so good that they can sell a todo list for millions.

In the case of Photoshop it is the software itself that is becoming useless. In a few years, using photoshop will be viewed the same as developing physical film, a process from a by-gone era that is still possible, but impractical.

Re: Why software stocks are getting pummelled

#104

> The fear is that these [AI] tools are allowing companies to create much of the software they need themselves. AI-generated code still requires software engineers to build, test, debug, deploy, secure, monitor, be on-call, support, handle incidents, and so on. That's very expensive. It is much cheaper to pay a small monthly fee to a SaaS company.

Atlassian tools for a client like mine (hundreds of employees) can easily cover the expense of internalizing it. It's Jira plus confluence mostly, it's not rocket science. And that's just atlassian. Start adding stuff that costs many many many yearly salaries (special software for managing inventories and warehouses) it starts making sense to prototype alternatives internally. I came to the conclusion that if it's no…

Don’t forget the salary for every dev team having the Atlassian Jira Jockey to mess around with the board all day and make sure the next 7 epics worth of tickets are in the 9 columns and in prioritised order.

Where would we be without them!?

Re: Why software stocks are getting pummelled

#105

Is the pummeling in the room with us right now? YoY looks phenomenal in my portfolio.

This article I think is about a very specific subset of software stocks.

If you're holding say a total market index fund, or s&p500, or even qqq or many tech index funds, this would get hidden by the so-far very good growth on other tech stocks.

Re: Why software stocks are getting pummelled

#106

> The fear is that these [AI] tools are allowing companies to create much of the software they need themselves. AI-generated code still requires software engineers to build, test, debug, deploy, secure, monitor, be on-call, support, handle incidents, and so on. That's very expensive. It is much cheaper to pay a small monthly fee to a SaaS company.

A lot of these companies are not small monthly fees. And if you’ve ever worked with them, you’ll know that many of the tools they sell are an exact match for almost nobody’s needs. So what happens is a corporation ends up spending a lot of money for a square tool that they have to hammer into a circle hole. They do it because the alternative is worse. AI coding does not allow you to build anything even mildly complex…

>But it does reduced by an order of magnitude the amount of money you need to spend on programming a solution that would work better

Could you share any data on this? Are there any case studies you could reference or at least personal experience? One order of magnitude is 10x improvement in cost, right?

Re: Why software stocks are getting pummelled

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern AI probably could’ve done almost all of the work for him. no way. We're not talking a standalone AI created program for a single end-user, but entire integrated e-commerce enterprise system that needs to work at scale and volume. Way harder.

I also have pretty hefty skepticism that AI is going to magically account for the kinds of weird-ass edge cases that one encounters during a large data migration.

I was interviewing with a company that has done ETL migration, interop and management tools for the healthcare space, and is just dipping their toes in the "Could AI do this for us or help us?"

Their initial answer/efforts seem to be a qualified but very qualified "Possibly" (hah).

They talked of pattern matching and recognition being a very strong point, but yeah, the edge cases tripping things up, whether corrupt data or something very obscure.

Somewhat like the study of MRIs and CTs of people who had no cancer diagnosis but would later go on to develop cancer (i.e. they were sick enough that imaging and testing was being ordered but there were no/insufficient markers for a radiologist/oncologist to make the diagnosis, but in short order they did develop those markers). AI was very good at analyzing the data set and with high accuracy saying "this person likely went on to have cancer", but couldn't tell you why or what it found.

Re: Why software stocks are getting pummelled

#108

> The fear is that these [AI] tools are allowing companies to create much of the software they need themselves. AI-generated code still requires software engineers to build, test, debug, deploy, secure, monitor, be on-call, support, handle incidents, and so on. That's very expensive. It is much cheaper to pay a small monthly fee to a SaaS company.

A lot of these companies are not small monthly fees. And if you’ve ever worked with them, you’ll know that many of the tools they sell are an exact match for almost nobody’s needs. So what happens is a corporation ends up spending a lot of money for a square tool that they have to hammer into a circle hole. They do it because the alternative is worse. AI coding does not allow you to build anything even mildly complex…

Oh, but that doesn't matter. SaaS tools aren't bought by the people that have to use them. Entire groups in big companies (HR & co) are delegating the majority of their job to SaaS and all failures are blamed on the people who have to interact with them while they are entirely ancillary to their job.

Re: Why software stocks are getting pummelled

#109
post #43

> The fear is that these [AI] tools are allowing companies to create much of the software they need themselves. AI-generated code still requires software engineers to build, test, debug, deploy, secure, monitor, be on-call, support, handle incidents, and so on. That's very expensive. It is much cheaper to pay a small monthly fee to a SaaS company.

Hmm, I wonder if it would be cheaper to hire a couple of software engineers to vibe-code custom SaaS apps on top of the company's existing data layer instead of paying for a hundred different SaaS subscriptions. Financial considerations aside, one advantage of having in-house engineers is that you can get custom features built on-demand without having to be blocked on the roadmap of a SaaS company juggling feature re…

> one advantage of having in-house engineers is that you can get custom features built on-demand without having to be blocked on the roadmap of a SaaS company juggling feature requests from multiple customers...

Many larger enterprises do both – buy multiple SaaS products, and then have an engineering team to integrate all those SaaS products together by calling their APIs, and build custom apps on the side for more bespoke requirements.

To give a real world example: the Australian government has all these complex APIs and file formats defined to integrate with enterprises for various purposes (educational institutions submitting statistics, medical records and billing, taxation, anti-money laundering for banks, etc). You can't just vibe code a client for them – the amount of testing and validation you have to do with your implementation is huge–and if you get it wrong, you are sending the government wrong data, which is a massive legal risk. And then, for some of them, the government won't let you even talk to the API unless you get your product certified through a compliance process which costs $$$. Or, you could just buy some off-the-shelf product which has already implemented all of that, and focus your internal engineering efforts on other stuff. And consider this is just one country, and dozens of other countries worldwide do the same thing in slightly different ways. But big SaaS vendors are used to doing all that, they'll have modules for dealing with umpteen different countries' specific regulations and associated government APIs/file formats, and they'll keep them updated since they are forever changing due to new regulations and government policies. And big vendors will often skip some of the smaller countries, but then you'll get local vendors who cover them instead.

Re: Why software stocks are getting pummelled

#110

> The fear is that these [AI] tools are allowing companies to create much of the software they need themselves. AI-generated code still requires software engineers to build, test, debug, deploy, secure, monitor, be on-call, support, handle incidents, and so on. That's very expensive. It is much cheaper to pay a small monthly fee to a SaaS company.

Atlassian tools for a client like mine (hundreds of employees) can easily cover the expense of internalizing it. It's Jira plus confluence mostly, it's not rocket science. And that's just atlassian. Start adding stuff that costs many many many yearly salaries (special software for managing inventories and warehouses) it starts making sense to prototype alternatives internally. I came to the conclusion that if it's no…

jira premium is $15/mo/user for 300 users. you're saying $50k can cover developing the app inclusive of integrations, maintaining it, providing 24/7 service and 3 9s uptime (per the sla)? don't forget compliance and security. maybe the logic is everyone can be fired and replaced with agents?
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