Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation • Hacker News Board

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#181

Post by tanseydavid » Mon, Feb 02, 2026, 8:23 PM UTC

thinkmassive wrote: post #78

ronnier wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. It's already happening https://www.reddit.com/r/Minneapolis/comments/1pdzd2f/some_m...

In Virginia too, proposed in HB1124: > The bill prohibits the use of autonomous vehicles as motor carriers of passengers or property without a human operator who (i) meets any state and federal qualifications for the operation of an autonomous vehicle; (ii) is physically present in such autonomous vehicle; and (iii) has the ability to monitor the performance of such vehicle and intervene in the operation of such vehi…

If they prohibit autonomous vehicles, eventually their constituencies will be screaming for it.

It seems that many people, after trying out the service for themselves first hand, in a locale that has it available today, are very eager to have the service available to them in their home locale.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#182

Post by tanseydavid » Mon, Feb 02, 2026, 8:29 PM UTC

estearum wrote: post #98

ativzzz wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber and Lyft operated partially or outright illegally in many places while negotiating with governments. They also had a far superior product. Just like they fought the existing taxi companies, Waymo will have to fight against Uber and Lyft's lawyers, who are probably better funded and have learned to become better entrenched in governments.

Uber and Lyft are goners, their customers don't care about them and will take Waymos the second they're available. Uber and Lyft will survive exactly to the extent they successfully adopt self-driving.

> Uber and Lyft will survive exactly to the extent they successfully adopt self-driving.

I think this is correct and I want to point out something that I have not seen mentioned elsewhere in the thread.

If and when Uber/Lyft move heavily in this direction, the cost/operational benefits of having their "fleet" of vehicles be privately owned-vehicles will almost certainly disappear.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#183

Post by pphysch » Mon, Feb 02, 2026, 8:31 PM UTC

jabedude wrote: post #164

askl wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We need this in europe. No we don't. Your github says you're from Berlin, why the hell would you ever need a taxi in your life? Someone should just find a cure for for the fear techbros have of being near poor people.

[flagged]

War crimes are extremely violent crimes, and it's not "poor people" giving the orders.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#184

Post by floxy » Mon, Feb 02, 2026, 8:31 PM UTC

everforward wrote: post #73

tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only semi rational thing that could explain it is the robots.

I don’t even think that’s rational, but it may be what’s propping them up. Last earnings call Musk said Optimus wasn’t doing “meaningful work” at Tesla and as far as I’m aware they haven’t done meaningful work anywhere. I think they’re behind the curve there. Figure AI recently finished an apparently successful feasibility trial of their humanoid robots with BMW and Boston Dynamics has a deal with Hyundai for their A…

>I’m not even convinced humanoid robots are going to pan out in general.

I want one personally, so it can rake the leaves, mow the lawn, tend the garden, do the laundry and dishes, replace the roof, etc., when I'm old. But they should also be used to pick up litter along the highway, paint over graffiti, etc..

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#185

Post by seanmcdirmid » Mon, Feb 02, 2026, 8:34 PM UTC

dmix wrote: post #158

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on the news, I think Waymo will import base vehicle builds from China and then adding the control systems and software to those. So it’s not like they will start making cars.

Who will repair them and maintain all of the electronics? Even if you buy cars that's a giant operation.

You don't really maintain electronics, you swap them out when they are detected to be bad. Electric vehicles don't need tune ups or overhauls, it is light maintenance and full on component swaps. Send the defective components back to the factory for refurbishment and/or recycling.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#186

Post by lurk2 » Mon, Feb 02, 2026, 8:35 PM UTC

re-thc wrote: post #53

lurk2 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you use someone else’s money you have to pay him back with interest or equity.

> you have to pay him back with interest or equity That's the price for infinite scaling. If a business can't make more than that it should be shut down. i.e. do you want to make 25% of 1 billion or 5% of 1000 billion?

The point the great-grandparent is making is that Google could comfortably finance the project itself and make 100% of the upside, not 25% or 5%.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#187

Post by Lammy » Mon, Feb 02, 2026, 8:37 PM UTC

Analemma_ wrote: post #134

kccqzy wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A car does not cost $350 and $500 per month. If it does, it’s a status symbol, not merely a tool to get from A to B, and therefore it is unfair to compare it against taxi rides. There’s nothing wrong with wanting a nicer more luxurious car for yourself. But it’s just ingenious to compare that against taxis with beaten-up and spartan but reliable cars.

Car insurance has essentially doubled in price over the past few years, from a combination of - cars becoming more complicated to repair. Marco Arment of Overcast related an incident where his Rivian had a simple fender bender, and his insurance was billed $15,000 in labor and parts to fix it because of the monobody construction where you have to tear apart half the car to fix anything - inflation in both goods and s…

> I think most people in the US are paying at least $350/month

What an absurd statement. Mine has gone down in the past several years, and I pay around that per 6 months.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#188

Post by seanmcdirmid » Mon, Feb 02, 2026, 8:37 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #168

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m guessing you live in America where car ownership is heavily subsidized? Many places you would spend $500/month just to park your car, maybe more.

In most of America there is abundant free parking on private property including homes, stores, and workplaces. That is hardly a subsidy. I understand the argument that dense cities shouldn't have so much free public street parking but there are only a handful of neighborhoods where that even matters.

The "free parking" isn't really free, you just have land that is really cheap devoted to it. And where it isn't...well, American housing prices and rents are increased to pay for them. Street parking matters in almost every neighborhood in Seattle now...since parking on its own is expensive, and you will also have to pay for a few busted windows on your car for the pleasure of free street parking.

The highways are heavily subsidized by general funds these days since raising the gas tax outside of a few states isn't very popular.

I'm American but in the other countries I lived in (Switzerland and China) and the many countries I've visited, private car ownership is always a luxury, not a cheap necessety attainable by everyone.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#189

Post by alooPotato » Mon, Feb 02, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC

dotBen wrote: post #15

pm90 wrote: post #7

Why does Google need outside investors? Is it a play to get a “serious” valuation since it would be vetted by outside parties? I guess Im questioning why Waymo doesn’t just IPO, or raise 100% private raise by Google.

It's a very capital intensive operation given the amount of vehicles that need to be carried on the balance sheet. There are many reasons why a conglomerate like Alphabet doesn't want to hold all of that directly on the balance sheet, which is why Waymo is run as a subsidiary with its own sources of capital. When I was at Uber 10 plus years ago and we were ideating autonomous vehicles. The general consensus was that…

> There are many reasons why a conglomerate like Alphabet doesn't want to hold all of that directly on the balance sheet

Can you tell us those reasons? I think this is basically _the_ question.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#190

Post by seanmcdirmid » Mon, Feb 02, 2026, 8:39 PM UTC

malfist wrote: post #112

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is also a demographic cliff most of the world is currently going off, declining birth rates and labor shortages. Would you rather have a human nurse in your very old age retirement, or a human driver. Because we don’t have enough young people now for both.

Maybe the better option is to not be so anti immigration

So let's poach these people from the third world and...what about the third world? People can't just be made in factories like robots and self driving cars can. It seems inevitable that either we will have really sucky retirements (please die early grandpa, we can't take care of you!) OR (hopefully) automation will come to the rescue despite luddite protests.