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Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

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Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#151

Post by overfeed »

bandofthehawk wrote: post #80
nvch wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me, this is the major selling point to own a car. I may drive a few times a week, and taxis might be much cheaper, but no way I'm going to deal with human taxi drivers if I have a choice.

This seems weird to me, maybe it's a generational thing. Is it really that bad to share a car with someone? You don't have to talk to them the whole time.

> Is it really that bad to share a car with someone?

Sometimes it is, and you never really know when.

Some of my most unpleasant experiences involved a couple of reckless drivers, even more nutters who insisted on talking about their politics or pet peeves, I fear one of them may have gone beyond mere eccentricity and probably required some medical intervention, but couldn't figure out how to report that without possibly resulting in the driver being punished by the app.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#152

Post by mikestew »

Analemma_ wrote: post #134
kccqzy wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A car does not cost $350 and $500 per month. If it does, it’s a status symbol, not merely a tool to get from A to B, and therefore it is unfair to compare it against taxi rides. There’s nothing wrong with wanting a nicer more luxurious car for yourself. But it’s just ingenious to compare that against taxis with beaten-up and spartan but reliable cars.

Car insurance has essentially doubled in price over the past few years, from a combination of - cars becoming more complicated to repair. Marco Arment of Overcast related an incident where his Rivian had a simple fender bender, and his insurance was billed $15,000 in labor and parts to fix it because of the monobody construction where you have to tear apart half the car to fix anything - inflation in both goods and s…

Marco Arment of Overcast related an incident where his Rivian had a simple fender bender, and his insurance was billed $15,000 in labor and parts to fix it because of the monobody construction where you have to tear apart half the car to fix anything

Hyundai Ioniq 5, backing into the garage next to the RV, and at "backing into the garage" speed ran into the RV. The fiberglass body of the RV suffered a 3 inch diameter break in the fiberglass that I could have fixed myself. The Hyundai? 17,000 American dollars. The rear quarter panel took a dent, and (IIRC) the bumper might have had some damage. Part of the problem was that there really isn't a "rear quarter panel" anymore. No, as I looked at it, that piece of sheet metal goes all the way from the rear bumper to the front of the passenger compartment. The shop didn't replace that piece, but rather cut the dented piece out and welded in new sheet metal.

Between that, and all the sensors, etc., $17K for backing into a piece of fiberglass at not even a walking pace. Now that the car has some years on it, if I do that again they'll probably total it.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#153

Post by 46493168 »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #26
46493168 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you bet your own money when you could bet someone else’s?

If you are betting on a winner why split with others?

If you know the winner, it’s not gambling. Self-driving cars are still a gamble.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#154

Post by mikestew »

dmoy wrote: post #123
dmoy wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there really that much poop on Berlin public transit? Seattle has some of the highest per capital homeless in the US, and a dearth of public toilets, and yet there's not that much poop on our public transit. I am also skeptical that y'all's violent crime rate is higher than ours. Granted I haven't taken Berlin public transit in 20 yrs, so I don't know.

> I am also skeptical that y'all's violent crime rate is higher than ours. Ok well I am wrong. Berlin's violent crime rate is 2-4x higher than Seattle? Huh. The homicide rate is within touching distance. That was not what I expected, ok.

It wouldn't take much to have more violent crime in Seattle, according to my gut (yeah, I know, "show me the numbers"). Granted, it's probably gotten worse since we moved here 25 some years ago, but coming from places like my old hometown of Indianapolis, Seattle didn't have any place I wouldn't feel comfortable walking at night. Again, it's changed a lot since (there are some areas I would avoid at 2 a. m. now), but I still feel much safer in Seattle than other large cities.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#155

Post by philipallstar »

perfmode wrote: post #49
pm90 wrote: post #7

Why does Google need outside investors? Is it a play to get a “serious” valuation since it would be vetted by outside parties? I guess Im questioning why Waymo doesn’t just IPO, or raise 100% private raise by Google.

a deliberate strategy to establish market-validated pricing, prepare for eventual independence, and impose governance discipline on what has been a protected moonshot project. The move signals that Alphabet is transforming Waymo from an “Other Bets” science experiment into a standalone asset with credible external valuation—likely positioning for an IPO within 2-4 years once profitability arrives.

I'm not sure how useful this pricing is for the future, as waymo is currently operating on semi-infinite Google money. If that stops, no doubt the price would change too.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#156

Post by dmix »

pu_pe wrote: post #52

It seems like a fair valuation to me. I can see a path for them to approach or surpass Uber's revenue (~$50B) in the future, and I think their technology and brand are actual moats in comparison to all other driverless systems out there.

Unlike Uber which has drivers buying, fixing, and fueling their own cars, Waymo will have to build large fleets and a huge car/computer/LIDAR production/repair pipeline. It will be interesting to hear how they plan to do this at Ubers scale. It's much higher risk, asset and logistics wise.

I don't think there's ever been a giant centralized global taxi fleet.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#157

Post by boplicity »

spwa4 wrote: post #81
nvch wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me, this is the major selling point to own a car. I may drive a few times a week, and taxis might be much cheaper, but no way I'm going to deal with human taxi drivers if I have a choice.

I always (as soon as I could) owned a car, first on independence, but soon that became on price. A car costs between $350 and $500 per month, plus about 2 gas tanks, let's say $600. That's only 10-15 short taxi rides and two long taxi rides at best. And now I have a family, there's 5 of us. A car is easily less than half the price of public transport for what I need to do (because you pay per person). I hate traffic,…

The cost is a factor -- and something that I think policy makers should very much push to change.

For our family of four, two of us pay for public transport as of now. That adds up to $12 round trip; which is often more expensive than parking in the even in a high density area. Once we have to start paying for the kids too, that would add up to $24 for a round trip, which ends up being more expensive than driving. I get that public transportation is expensive to operate; maybe that alone is the root of the problem here.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#158

Post by dmix »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111
jillesvangurp wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo needs $16B to build what Tesla already has: manufacturing capacity. Without that, there are only so many cars they can put on the road. They've proven they can do the rides. But they haven't proven they can do it cost effectively. To scale up and start making a profit, they'll need to start building/buying lots of Waymo cars. That's not going to be cheap or fast. That's going to involve a lot of capital expense…

Based on the news, I think Waymo will import base vehicle builds from China and then adding the control systems and software to those. So it’s not like they will start making cars.

Who will repair them and maintain all of the electronics? Even if you buy cars that's a giant operation.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#159

Post by direwolf20 »

amccollum wrote: post #124
lazarus01 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im fortunate to live in an area dense with traditional taxis and Ubers, no Waymo yet. I rarely take taxis, the exception is when I have to haul my gear to the studio for a jam session. I always take a taxi, because it’s cheaper and faster than using an app to call an uber. On 80% of the trips, I end up having a nice chat with the driver and learn something new about humanity or myself. I really enjoy these interactio…

I used to feel this way. In the early days of "ride sharing," I preferred Lyft and would sit up front so I could have a conversation with the driver, which they encouraged. It was really fun for a while, and I enjoyed meeting people from different walks of life. Over time, though, transportation became much more functional for me, and now when I take non-autonomous rides, it's more irksome than enjoyable when drivers…

Taxis daily! In a country without trains, is that normal?

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#160

Post by biztos »

lazarus01 wrote: post #60
jFriedensreich wrote: post #35

No product had such a fast transition from novelty to "omg i never want to interact with a human again". I feel about 100% less stressed and happier using a waymo or riding motorbike or bicycle next to a waymo than with human drivers. I hope this next phase will bring availability and prices down. We need this in europe.

Im fortunate to live in an area dense with traditional taxis and Ubers, no Waymo yet. I rarely take taxis, the exception is when I have to haul my gear to the studio for a jam session. I always take a taxi, because it’s cheaper and faster than using an app to call an uber. On 80% of the trips, I end up having a nice chat with the driver and learn something new about humanity or myself. I really enjoy these interactio…

I’m surprised they don’t have opt-in LLM-based “chatty mode” where you can talk to the AI personality of your choice while riding. Obviously shouldn’t be the same AI that’s deciding whether to run over the child or crash into the oncoming train.

[edit: riding not driving]

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