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Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

bloomberg.com

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Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#141

Post by askl »

tialaramex wrote: post #137
askl wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> have you ever taken public transport in less mainstream lines? Yes, I have. I never drove a car myself and maybe used a taxi 10 times in the last 30 years. Will waymo even be available in less mainstream areas? It seems more reasonable for them to go for dense places instead and leave the unprofitable regions for someone else.

> Will waymo even be available in less mainstream areas? Ever is a long time. It's not reasonable to predict beyond a decade or so. It's easily possible that this becomes huge and in the 2040s people are astonished that "driving yourself" was a thing, the same way it's hard to comprehend now that most people weren't literate . Not "Couldn't write an essay / read a newspaper" but "Couldn't sign their name / read a pos…

I mean, I can understand wanting to start in dense places. But those are also the places where public transit is a viable existing solution.

Personal transit just looks incredible inefficient and unscalable if everyone would use it. I could totally see it as a last resort solution for situations where nothing else is available, but that's an unattractive market that isn't going to make anyone rich.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#142

Post by jafo1989 »

dotBen wrote: post #21
doctoboggan wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified. Oh ye of little faith! Here are some ideas off the top of my head, I am sure the suits at Google already have a bigger list. * Ads in vehicle * Adjust route so you see partner companies or billboards * Offering alternative destinations (I see you are going to Burger King, would you rather go to our partner McDonalds?) * Listening to conversations in car * Se…

They already will be selling your ride data and there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries). Ads in cars, partnerships with alternative destinations, etc. definitely would feel like enshitification for a demographic comparable to the hacker news one here. But these are all per session/user settings just like most of us have a paid Spotify account…

> there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries)

Oh, you'll agree to that when you accept the terms of service.

Can't wait for the "This ride with ads: $17. Ad free: $26" choice.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#143

Post by josefx »

pm90 wrote: post #7

Why does Google need outside investors? Is it a play to get a “serious” valuation since it would be vetted by outside parties? I guess Im questioning why Waymo doesn’t just IPO, or raise 100% private raise by Google.

Money from Google internally might be subject to internal power dynamics and come with strings attached. Having reliable outside funding from people who don't get a say in things might be a better alternative for a project that doesn't want to end up as Stadia 2.0 .

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#144

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

kccqzy wrote: post #90
spwa4 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always (as soon as I could) owned a car, first on independence, but soon that became on price. A car costs between $350 and $500 per month, plus about 2 gas tanks, let's say $600. That's only 10-15 short taxi rides and two long taxi rides at best. And now I have a family, there's 5 of us. A car is easily less than half the price of public transport for what I need to do (because you pay per person). I hate traffic,…

A car does not cost $350 and $500 per month. If it does, it’s a status symbol, not merely a tool to get from A to B, and therefore it is unfair to compare it against taxi rides. There’s nothing wrong with wanting a nicer more luxurious car for yourself. But it’s just ingenious to compare that against taxis with beaten-up and spartan but reliable cars.

> A car does not cost $350 and $500 per month.

This can vary a lot.

6 years ago, I was driving a Subaru BRZ which averaged 32 mpg. My commute was ~30 miles each way, add in a couple miles for weekly errands, and let's just say I was using 10 gallons/week. If gas was $3, that's $30/week, $120/month. Plus $150/month for insurance, it's $270/month.

Still way under your 350-500/month figure, but that's also assuming the car is paid off.

> If it does, it’s a status symbol, not merely a tool to get from A to B, and therefore it is unfair to compare it against taxi rides.

$350-500/month is cheaper than taxi rides. Even with a more reasonable 5-10 mile commute, I'd be spending probably $50/DAY if I took taxis.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#145

Post by dzonga »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #121
jillesvangurp wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo needs $16B to build what Tesla already has: manufacturing capacity. Without that, there are only so many cars they can put on the road. They've proven they can do the rides. But they haven't proven they can do it cost effectively. To scale up and start making a profit, they'll need to start building/buying lots of Waymo cars. That's not going to be cheap or fast. That's going to involve a lot of capital expense…

Waymo has 0 need for manufacturing capacity. There are dozens of companies that do that really well at a low margin already that'll be happy for the business. They made a timing mistake by choosing Zeekr for it, which is limiting their expansion at the moment. That's a lot easier/cheaper/quicker to fix by choosing a different partner than by building their own.

zeeker ? Wow that is news.

thought Waymo was partnered with Jaguar-LandRover ?

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#146

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

doctorpangloss wrote: post #71
pm90 wrote: post #7

Why does Google need outside investors? Is it a play to get a “serious” valuation since it would be vetted by outside parties? I guess Im questioning why Waymo doesn’t just IPO, or raise 100% private raise by Google.

a little kid is inevitably going to get killed by a waymo. institutional finance is america's most powerful lobbyist. in the sense of the fund managers, the little RIAs, the grandmas holding SPY. they ARE the voters. so to me, aside from making money, making money this way, for a lot of people, protects them from the political grandstanding and their fast demise in their absence.

> a little kid is inevitably going to get killed by a waymo.

And it will be 100% the kids fault, but the headlines will look terrible.

Kids can be naive and reckless, and the result makes them look downright suicidal with the things they do. They will dart into traffic, and even if the Waymo has single-digit millisecond reaction times, people will still blame the Waymo.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#147

Post by tantalor »

dotBen wrote: post #46
lotsofpulp wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries). Why not? You can consent to having your audio recorded. They can even offer a higher “private” price and a lower “ad supported” price. I write “private” because I assume the microphones will always be listening no matter which price you pay.

I guess that's semantics. If you opt in then yes I guess they could do anything. I think the point was that enshitification would occur if they forced you to do that. You could opt in to have blood or plasma taken on every ride if you so wanted I guess.

Rough figures:

As a plasma donor you can earn $30-$70 per session for 800 ml. Let's call it $50. A session takes about 90 minutes, or 533 ml/hour, and you make $33/hour

Waymo charges $0.50 - $1.00 per mile. Let's use the high end.

To break even, your Waymo will need to consume If you go any faster, you won't be able to extract enough plasma in the same amount of time.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#148

Post by tantalor »

oefrha wrote: post #85
tantalor wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We already have ads in vehicles. If you fly United, the in-flight entertainment has pre-roll ads. I can't say how well that model translates to car rides.

I see you haven’t seen or heard of cabs’ in-car ad screens we’ve had for close to two decades, if you have to point to airplanes as an example.

I haven't been in a cab in 2 decades, so that tracks.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#149

Post by jstummbillig »

askl wrote: post #86
jFriedensreich wrote: post #35

No product had such a fast transition from novelty to "omg i never want to interact with a human again". I feel about 100% less stressed and happier using a waymo or riding motorbike or bicycle next to a waymo than with human drivers. I hope this next phase will bring availability and prices down. We need this in europe.

> We need this in europe. No we don't. Your github says you're from Berlin, why the hell would you ever need a taxi in your life? Someone should just find a cure for for the fear techbros have of being near poor people.

Everyone has the "fear" of being near other people, regardless of their affluence. That's why apartments are not built for 20 but got 2-5 people and doors exist. I don't see why it must be a rich people thing when it comes to self driving cars. Could also become super interesting by making remoter areas more serviceable.

Re: Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation

#150

Post by thundergolfer »

crazygringo wrote: post #6
thundergolfer wrote: post #4

I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic? Waymo is the best service I've used in many, many years. The jump from Uber->Waymo is similar to the quality jump from Taxi->Uber 12 years ago, but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.

Google has a $4.1T market cap. So a $110B valuation is not currently that significant in terms of exposure. It's only 2.7% of it overall.

Fair, though my guess is that the growth rate of Waymo's market cap will far exceed Google's as Waymo scales. I wish I could invest in Waymo, so I'll take that 2.7% exposure.
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