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Scientist who helped eradicate smallpox dies at age 89

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Scientist who helped eradicate smallpox dies at age 89

#141

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How does a public that derives its knowledge from authority (For example, how do 99.999% of people know that the earth is flat and orbits the sun? Would they be able to reach those conclusions if school books taught something else?) stand a chance at resisting misinformation spread by trusted authorities?

> how do 99.999% of people know that the earth is flat and orbits the sun? Pun intended?

Oops

Re: Scientist who helped eradicate smallpox dies at age 89

#142

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I must have forgotten that Elon actually is the original founder of Tesla and not a phony. At best he's their money guy. Do you think Elon knows a single thing about rockets? Do you actually think he has literally anything to do with them? He isn't even capable of forming a sentence without stuttering, much less actually doing literally anything at all. Keep defending your pedophiles, bro. I'm sure in 10 years you'll…

Yes , he does. And making fun of people who stutter isn’t a good look. I will take the word of the world’s foremost rocket engine engineer who was in the room with Musk a lot of times, to someone posting in ignorance on the Internet.

Is asking for invites to Epstein's island a good look? I don't think I'll take advice on decorum from you.

It's really sad you would take the word of paid-off ego glazers and insult your own intelligence by buying into the super-genius bullshit Elon wants you to.

The truth is pretty clear: he's just a sex fiend and likely pedophile who pays people to say nice things about him. It is clear as day that anyone not on his payroll has no love for him whatsoever.

Re: Scientist who helped eradicate smallpox dies at age 89

#143

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A friend's favorite Wiki page is on the micromort. [1] I found it kind of banal, but perhaps that's my more casual attitude towards death. I suspect the average person doesn't realize, or doesn't accept, how brief life truly is. One micromort is something with a 1 in a million chance of death. So with measels, we're talking about 1000 micromorts, if you're infected - which is also extremely unlikely. So if you give y…

In a world with a low vaccination rate, infection with measles is practically 100%. It spreads more easily than COVID. You can take your risk with herd immunity if you want. That works well now, with a near universal vaccination rate. But if the rate drops below 90%, then you will get infected.

Immunity rate, not vaccination rate. This is why everybody ended up catching COVID, often multiple times, regardless of how much they injected themselves with. Whereas, measles, with an ostensibly higher spread rate, was already on its way out before vaccines were introduced with fewer than 1 new case per 500 people - far below even basic fertility rates. It's because infection with measles is a nice mixture of relatively low risk and providing lifetime immunity. Beyond that, herd immunity is a hand-wavy measurement about statistically preventing perpetual spread within a population, it says much less about individual susceptibility.

Re: Scientist who helped eradicate smallpox dies at age 89

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People can simply have different perspectives on things. Measels has mortality rate of around 0.1% while small pox has a mortality rate of around 30%. So the individual risk from measels is relatively low leaving plenty of room for individual choice. There's less room for the same argument with small pox. In fact small pox is where the term vaccine comes from - it was observed that milk maids weren't getting smallpox…

Your child being vaccinated against measles is 1. yes, protecting them, but 2. also protecting all the other children at school they interact with, and vice-versa. It isn’t just an individual choice. You should definitely fault people for going the other direction because they are willingly increasing the chance of your child or your child’s friends getting measles.

The US sees in the ballpark of a hundred million tourists, business travelers, and migrants per year. And these people are vectors for basically everything and are numerically very large. And you're inevitably going to bump into and interact with these people. So I think the idea of domestic herd immunity is increasingly nonsensical because 'domestic' is no longer even remotely close to a closed system. And global herd immunity is nonsensical simply because it's wholly unrealistic, and at that sort of scale any small issue can explode into a huge one: see - source of most modern cases of polio.

Re: Scientist who helped eradicate smallpox dies at age 89

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People can simply have different perspectives on things. Measels has mortality rate of around 0.1% while small pox has a mortality rate of around 30%. So the individual risk from measels is relatively low leaving plenty of room for individual choice. There's less room for the same argument with small pox. In fact small pox is where the term vaccine comes from - it was observed that milk maids weren't getting smallpox…

Getting sick isn’t just life or death. My parents both got measels, and they had no hesitancy getting me vaccinated. I’m significantly taller than my dad, who lost 40 pounds when he got German measles when he was 17. I grew several inches that year. People who don’t get vaccinated are bad people. I have no qualms saying it.

I don't think this is a great argument. The reason is that Rubella/German measels is in the majority of cases very mild, in many - people will not even know they had caught it. If you take a large enough sample you'll absolutely find people winning a lottery that they really don't want to win, but the exact same logic is used to by people to avoid vaccinating. For instance the MMR vaccine can cause all sorts of nasty things in extreme cases, but in the average case it's believed to be mostly harmless. Though of course we're always discovering new things about medicines. There's even new side effects in e.g. tylenol still regularly being discovered and published about.

Re: Scientist who helped eradicate smallpox dies at age 89

#146
post #132

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Dropping a tungsten penetrator from orbit is an idea only science fiction can justify. In the real world the economics never close.

Huh? In the real world we so far just managed to keep space free of military weapons not because they are expensive, but because of treaties. I just don't expect those to last much longer. And frankly I never looked into the concept, but why do you think, a space base tungsten penetrator would be way more expensive, than a nuke on a missile?

The idea as proposed in various places is a very large multi-ton vehicle. He chose to focus on trivia. Pretty common for Elon fans.

Humans are pretty clever at devising ways to kill each other. The Russians put a garbage can of concrete on a ersatz ballistic missile on a terror strike against Ukraine. Like you said, these things don’t exist because of treaties.

Re: Scientist who helped eradicate smallpox dies at age 89

#147

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You're really going to play the "just asking questions" card? You're smarter than this. Or should be.

[flagged]

Oh really? If you, too, were being sarcastic, you have no business raising "my replies ended in question marks" as a defense, because you weren't actually asking a question, you were making a claim, and the question mark is purely decorative. That is also bad faith discussion. Which is really the core problem with the whole "just asking questions" thing, you start with ambiguous question marks, and retreat to whichever meaning is tactically expedient when challenged.

Meanwhile, I have no problem admitting that my question mark was decorative, and acknowledging my claim that you are engaging in bad faith discussion.

Re: Scientist who helped eradicate smallpox dies at age 89

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your child being vaccinated against measles is 1. yes, protecting them, but 2. also protecting all the other children at school they interact with, and vice-versa. It isn’t just an individual choice. You should definitely fault people for going the other direction because they are willingly increasing the chance of your child or your child’s friends getting measles.

The US sees in the ballpark of a hundred million tourists, business travelers, and migrants per year. And these people are vectors for basically everything and are numerically very large. And you're inevitably going to bump into and interact with these people. So I think the idea of domestic herd immunity is increasingly nonsensical because 'domestic' is no longer even remotely close to a closed system. And global he…

> The US sees in the ballpark of a hundred million tourists, business travelers, and migrants per year

American exceptionalism at its finest!

You do realise the vast majority of those "tourists, business travelers, and migrants" are all fully vaccinated?

Re: Scientist who helped eradicate smallpox dies at age 89

#150
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US sees in the ballpark of a hundred million tourists, business travelers, and migrants per year. And these people are vectors for basically everything and are numerically very large. And you're inevitably going to bump into and interact with these people. So I think the idea of domestic herd immunity is increasingly nonsensical because 'domestic' is no longer even remotely close to a closed system. And global he…

> The US sees in the ballpark of a hundred million tourists, business travelers, and migrants per year American exceptionalism at its finest! You do realise the vast majority of those "tourists, business travelers, and migrants" are all fully vaccinated?

One reason the idea of eliminating COVID was nonsensical is that it's carried by many animals, like all coronaviruses, and can be transmitted from humans to animals and vice versa. Measles, by contrast, is thought to be human only. So anytime there is an outbreak it's not from an unknowable cause. It's going to be either from a foreigner or somebody who visited a foreign country and returned with the virus.

Various social decisions have led to countries you might think of as measles free, no longer being measles free. For instance Canada, the UK, Spain, and obviously Mexico are all now considered to have endemic measles, with Canada and Mexico already compromising the majority of visitors and "visitors" to the US. And the vaccines are not complete immunization. Double dose measles is around 97% effective, meaning you can expect at least 3% breakthrough infections, possibly more depending on factors such as age, immuno compromisation, degree of exposure, and so on.

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