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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#571

Post by tonfa »

xivzgrev wrote: post #536
mmaunder wrote: post #522

What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by mo…

What if the rise in index funds is a bubble on its own? It's massive and increasing amounts of money that is not price sensitive and keeps growing. There's an underlying bubble message: "the stock market always bounces back, so keep plowing your money into it even when it's down". Apparently passive funds are 60% of mutual funds / ETFs now https://www.avantisinvestors.com/avantis-insights/has-passiv... Even more insi…

I don't even think it's about active vs. passive index funds.

Even if people were to do active bets on equity, what matters is the amount of money flowing in the asset class, so as long as there's an infinite stream of long investments into equity (due to 401k, etc.), the prices will rise.

You'd need people to actively balance their allocation between asset classes rather than stock X vs Y to counter those equity bubbles, but I don't think it's happening (and equity becomes too big to fail given the link with things like pension in the US).

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#573

Post by tpm »

direwolf20 wrote: post #526
tpm wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia and China (and many others) have never even pretended to play or accept these "rules". This false. They have pretended to play by the rules, and when breaking them, to at least manufacture some pretext, or to deny it was a state activity at all. One example I can give you is that when invading Czechoslovakia in 1968, the Soviet Union convinced a few Czechoslovak politicians to write a letter inviting the for…

Russia fabricated an attack on Russia by Ukraine before invading Ukraine. So this is still occurring.

Possibly, though that was perhaps more for internal reasons, as at the time it was afaik illegal to start an attacking war per Russian law.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#574

Post by bwfan123 »

tejohnso wrote: post #530

Just look at TSLA and you might temper your expectations of a rational market.

> you might temper your expectations of a rational market

TSLA is like a snowball down a hill. It morphs from EV to autonomous driving to AI to robots to space to tera fab to space datacenters. Rolling in the next big narrative or gov handout as it speeds down the hill.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#575

Post by m-s-y »

fogzen wrote: post #554
mmaunder wrote: post #522

What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by mo…

Gold has crashed with previous economic crashes. In 2008 it fell 30%, silver fell by 50%.

This happened yesterday. Not quite 30/50, more like 20/30

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#576

Post by duskdozer »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #195
bayarearefugee wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 'this time it's different' I remember reading this a lot in 2000-2001 and 2007-2008 That said, overall I sort of agree with your assessment except for having any optimism that the US changes course. The current looming problems with the US economy are almost entirely unforced errors of the Trump administration (they could have done basically nothing and taken credit for the Biden soft landing and economic growth) b…

Still, he'll be gone one day and I am going to be all in on that day. It'll all be hockey-sticks from that moment on.

Countries that are reducing their dependence on the US aren't necessarily going to go right back to the way things were. Decisions are sticky.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#577

Post by IAmGraydon »

raincole wrote: post #423

Crash of the stock market != crash of the economy Of course the market will go down at some point.

It's funny people still say this. The two are very much linked, as many millions of Americans have a large percentage of their net worth tied up in stocks via their 401Ks. Market tanks, net worth tanks, there's far less assets for people to borrow against, psychology changes, people stop spending, companies stop hiring, economy is now following the market.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#578

Post by IAmGraydon »

lvl155 wrote: post #50

Software sector basically got cut in half just on Claude Code. You have to wonder what is next. I don’t think loss in economics is 1:1 with replacement so it’s not zero sum. Production doesn’t necessarily go up. In fact, net output is going to go down if you think about all the B2B lost too. Whoever comes into power next better start thinking about universal income fast. We are gonna get there sooner than expected.

>Software sector basically got cut in half just on Claude Code.

Source?

What you're claiming is completely untrue. There have been claims like this circulating on the internet recently, and they're all based off this one chart:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE

There are a few major problems with this. First, all of the data comes from one source: Indeed. Indeed SURGED in popularity in the Covid years and interestingly fell off in popularity at exactly the same time as the FRED chart topped. Hey look - the chart for total jobs posted on Indeed looks similar:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXNEWUS

Beyond that, the effect is further exacerbated by the fact that tech hiring went absolutely fucking bonkers during Covid as everyone was convinced we would be stuck inside forever and money was literally free to borrow. The FRED chart only shows us the data during Covid. The inability to see realistic developer hiring numbers before that limits your context and gives a false impression. Here's a chart that goes a few years further back (first one on this page) and shows that hiring has simply normalized:

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/swe/2024/swe2406

Finally, look at the first chart again. Claude Code was released in May 2025. The chart has actually been RISING since that point.

But the software sector was cut in half by Claude Code. Right. And the false narrative marches on. It's honestly amazing to me how people just soak up false information with literally zero filter and zero critical thought or willingness to do some research.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#579

Post by YZF »

panarky wrote: post #566
tpm wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia and China (and many others) have never even pretended to play or accept these "rules". This false. They have pretended to play by the rules, and when breaking them, to at least manufacture some pretext, or to deny it was a state activity at all. One example I can give you is that when invading Czechoslovakia in 1968, the Soviet Union convinced a few Czechoslovak politicians to write a letter inviting the for…

>> Canada's Carney whines about "international order" when just a few years ago ... > They have pretended to play by the rules @YZF is unwittingly agreeing with Carney. The rules-based order is partially a fiction. Relevant snips from Carney's Davos speech. "The system's power comes not from its truth, but from everyone's willingness to perform as if it were true, and its fragility comes from the same source." "For d…

I'm well aware Carney also says it never really existed. So I don't think there's an "unwittingly" here. My issue with Carney is that he's whining about it.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#580

Post by throwthrowuknow »

mmooss wrote: post #367
panarky wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The international "rules-based order" is a good idea when most nations play by the rules most of the time, and when the most powerful at least pretend to follow the same rules as everyone else. A world order based on rules makes it possible to live at a much higher level of abstraction. Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly jus…

> Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly just figments of collective belief. > But when we devolve from the rules-based order to the old order of pure power and might-makes-right, kings and dictators, when there's no more collective belief that the rules apply to the rich and powerful, then the tower of abstractions collapses, a…

Religion isn’t based on “the greater good”, it’s always explicitly about the will of the god or gods involved and obeying or appeasing them.
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