If you predict a crash every month and it happens after 2 years... can we call you a visionary?
Yes and thank you in advance
ZeroHedge has correctly predicted two hundred of the last two recessions ;-)
Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
281–290 of 697 posts
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#282Earlier quoted context omitted.
it was at 120 and now it's at 85. yes it's back to where it was a few weeks ago
Why do people say this… ok so you buy at 120 and now it’s back at 85, no big deal that’s the same as a few weeks ago!?
Clearly very few people were buying at 120 which is why it fell back to 85. It's a highly volatile commodity. Commodities markets go through booms and busts all the time and you never even hear about most of them.
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#283I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…
The dollar is going down in value right now. Thats the plan. It makes foreign goods more expensive and exports more affordable to other countries. Meanwhile it should have less inflationary pressure on domestically produced stuff like housing. I dont know if this is going to work or collapse. If it does work IMO they still need to reduce the debt - current actions are because we are backed into a corner, so that need…
Eh, it's not a plan, it's make believe.
It's a flimsy back-filled rationale thrown on top the mercurial (and often sadistic) whims of an American Caligula, so the elite enablers can pretend there's something rational - or even good - about the chaos and destruction they are supporting.
There isn't. It's just chaos and destruction.
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#284Earlier quoted context omitted.
Assets traditionally used for such hedge are already massively inflated (look gold an silver price charts), so I'm not sure it's worth it. This all depends on what timelines you work on, how many assets you are trying to protect. Alternatively you protect yourself by lowering your dependence on steady income.
Yeah, as a SWE I just got sufficient money to pay my expenses AND have some to invest quite recently (about 2/1 months ago), but I basically froze the money instead of investing because everything seems overvalued and about to fall (even silver and gold).
Be careful, I would not stay 100% invested or 100% uninvested. The market can remain in an Everything bubble for far longer than we expect (see: since 2008). It can be a lot harder psychologically to get back -into- the market when you're totally out because of sunk cost fallacy (thinking, I gotta wait just a little longer and this thing will finally crash).
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#285Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do people say this… ok so you buy at 120 and now it’s back at 85, no big deal that’s the same as a few weeks ago!?
Clearly very few people were buying at 120 which is why it fell back to 85. It's a highly volatile commodity. Commodities markets go through booms and busts all the time and you never even hear about most of them.
My bad. I placed a small buy at around $120, afterward it immediately tanked. Sorry folks!
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#286Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't understand why people expect the Chinese economy to crash - they can basically make everything, a lot of which is internationally competitive, they can trade for the resources they don't have with the goods that they do - with basically the whole world dependent on them. They have a huge internal base of poor people, and lifting them to a middle class level will alone fuel domestic demand for years to come. T…
There were worries that they'd issued a lot of debt to build real estate that wasn't needed resulting in ghost towns and people thought prices would fall and the banks lending would collapse but they seem to have managed ok. The Chinese actually seem quite smart at managing their system.
They managed okay up until now because the Chinese gov takes a ton of revenue directly from their industry. They have very low income taxes on the public and instead make a lot of money from their huge state companies and investments in their manufacturing, industrial, and tech businesses which are still booming. That helps offset the losses from real estate, which they also make money off from land sales. They act more like a giant bank than one that simply taxes and spends.
But their fiscal deficits have been growing quite a bit, particularly their local governments and they've had some pretty bad deflationary issues recently.
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#287Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't see 30%. Maybe 12% from the very recent top, back to wherever it was just a few weeks ago.
https://www.kitco.com/charts/silver There has been significant recovery in after-hours trading, but check out that "day's range". The low point was around 1:40 PM EST.
>There has been significant recovery in after-hours trading
After hours has been flat. I think what you meant to say is it recovered a tiny bit from it's regular trading hours low. It's still down over 25% on the day.
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#288Earlier quoted context omitted.
But what the republican party has, is a lot of isolationist voters who cannot be moved by appeals to markets or international trade. They don’t care about that stuff. Sure, the republicans will look hilarious trying to replace Trump for a while … but those Americans aren’t going anywhere and will gladly vote for the next Trump whenever they show up, same as they voted for Reagan and Bush II. The American attitude dri…
Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be the first to jump up and say there’s a deep cultural rot in America that, if it weren’t for the fortune of incredible financial success, would have us be seen as a hellhole of antisocial maniacs. That being said, I just don’t buy into the notion that the strategy of the party from 2016-2024 (maybe 100 Trump rallies per year?) can carry over into the late 2020s / early 2030s. If anything, t…
That's not the point: the point is America did this twice. The world is not going to deal with America radically flip flopping every policy position every 4 years, and escalating that every time.
The US has just finished (maybe?) threatening to invade a NATO allied country. The occurrence rate of that has gone from "never" to "at least once". The delta change on that is infinity: there will never be a world in several generations where that is not a strategic risk the world has to deal with every 4 years.
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#289Earlier quoted context omitted.
Trump, yes. The millions of people that voted for him multiple times despite no shortage of reports and credible allegations that he was a scumbag... Will not. Trump isn't the problem, he's a symptom.
The rest of the Republican Party is completely devoid of charisma, especially the kind that drew so many voters to Trump. There is no drop-in replacement. Lots of money will be spent trying to manufacture a replacement, though. That will be fun to watch. If you thought the last-minute rally around Kamala was tough to watch…
I think JD Vance has plenty of charisma.
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#290Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's not an answer. Japan and the EU can't handle those flows so again there is no other place to go.
Even if it's hopeless, the best strategy when everything is falling is to bet evenly. Whether or not those countries can "handle it" doesn't matter. You're not betting in winning, you're betting on minimalizing losses. Huge difference in behavior.
Yeah people talk about this as though US treasuries didn't have a negative yield for a considerable amount of time.
People were literally paying the US government to hold their money because it was better then the alternatives: the options can all be bad, but some can be worse.