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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

wilsoniumite.com

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#61

I'm kinda new into economy crashes, was a kid in 2008, is there a way to protect of it?

It's difficult to draw many lessons from 2008. The people who suffered most then were over extended home owners. It's still not a good idea to be one of those people but there aren't so many of them now anyway.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#62
post #3

I do really hope the AI bubble will collapse soon. The sooner it blows the less damage it will do. And hopefully we can go back to doing real work without all these leadership guys breathing down our necks to see if we are doing enough of this AI all their shareholders want us to be involved in. It will suck even for us in europe due to shortsighted pension funds having invested in AI as well. But we'll just have to…

> It happened to blockchain, it happened to metaverse.

I don't think AI is comparable to these technologies.

AI had a real impact on certain daily activities, such as search, coding, etc. While the metaverse was just a fantasy with no tangible benefit other than Zuck trying to create his own platform to take on Apple and Google.

Blockchain had some potential in certain fields, but it wasn't user-friendly or usable by many people.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#64

Who do we expect will replace Americas global leadership and will they really be better for everyone?

Seems like the rest of the world is just signing new trade deals and continuing on as normal. I hope America returns to normalcy in the next election and everything settles down. Else it seems like back to the old multipolar world.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#67
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China seems to be the only candidate. But whatever happens it won’t be in the same way as before. As for whether it is better for everyone, that question became a lot harder in just the last year. Who is «everyone»? And what do we mean by «better»? With the US wanting to annex territory from its NATO allies, and engaging in extortionate tariffs, it is harder to argue that the US is good for Europe. Which is why Europ…

I disagree that something good for China is necessarily bad for the rest of the world, which you seem to imply here includes only Europe. China alone has a higher population than Europe and the USA combined. I'd say that even if things got worse for Europe, to humanity it still constitutes a net benefit. Lives aren't of less value just because they're in a (gasp) communist country.

Not necessarily. But China's aggression towards Taiwan and their recent rare earth metals move last year show that China does not have the worlds best interests at heart either. We're picking between two evils and China's evil is more predictable than the US's right now.

This goes for Asia in general. Korea, Japan, and China spent centuries fighting and making them the de facto super power makes it easy to resume the Korean war or try to overtake the (military wise) crippled Japan should they be emboldened by the faltering/collapse of NATO.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#68

I'm kinda new into economy crashes, was a kid in 2008, is there a way to protect of it?

I (like I'm sure many others) predicted it in 2007 and hedged against it by getting a 10 year fixed mortgage at then-current rates on the basis that rates would go sky high as they had in earlier recessions in the UK. They plummeted to next-to-zero, and in addition to the injury I had to endure the insult of the people who hadn't seen it coming gloating about their low standard variable rates. Ofc I clearly didn't ha…

I remember the opposite, just before we left the ERM (European Exchange Rate Mechanism). Interest rates hit 15% and one of my colleagues was gloating about how he had just taken on a fixed rate mortgage. A few days later we left and interest rates plummeted.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#69
Stocks might go down if AI doesn't bring in enough revenue. The real risk seems to be currency depreciation though. The USD is already down 15% this year compared to the Euro. I'm worried about what the next FED chair appointee will do. JPow has stuck to his principles so far.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#70
I keep seeing soon, sliding into, moving towards.

USD Currency futures have already collapsed.

World trade will move to (not a good idea) RMB or (mistakenly) crypto.

Euro is the only real option left and it’s beautifully positioned in the center. Great leadership too.

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