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The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

bayramovanar.substack.com

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Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#41

Post by graemep »

pydry wrote: post #10

I remember after the Brexit vote (i.e. years before anything actually changed) there was a rash of British companies who clearly would have gone bankrupt anyway blaming their ailing fortunes on Brexit. There is remarkably little pushback on company narratives about layoffs or ailing economic fortunes from journalists which is weird because it's more normal that they are not truthful. The Brexit vote is nothing like t…

There were some remarkable claims made about Brexit. The best I can recall was a bus company closing a local bus route "because of Brexit", an year or two after the vote and therefore years before it actually happened.

Also very common to blame things on health and safety, GDPR, etc.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#42

Post by Bayramovanar »

ForHackernews wrote: post #30

I don't really understand this writer's objection: Big tech is big money and big risks. If some giant FAANG company is going to take a gamble on paying you $350,000 TC you should be squirreling most of that away for yourself in case the bet goes south. If you want stability, go write Java for an insurance company for $85,000/year in Hartford, CT. OP is horrified to discover risky gambling happening in Las Vegas.

hey I am the writer of the post anecdotally, my last job was an insurance company I got laid off from there too :)

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#43

Post by d3ckard »

The main issue IMHO is the monopolization of the industry, especially in the US. Once the giants do layoffs, the rest of the market can't absorb the people effectively, which leads to oversaturated job market.

We can of course discuss how many people got into industry during COVID heyday and whether they should have, but mostly I think it's about those behemoths having disproportionately high impact on the entire labour market.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#44

Post by mexicocitinluez »

oytis wrote: post #24

Anecdotally, I didn't see more safety for engineers working on cash cows. Quite the contrary, if a product is already bringing revenue, it is an easy decision for the business to squeeze a bit more margin by letting people go. Stable, cash-generating projects are often first to be put into efficiency/maintenance mode.

Also anecdotally, I've had a handful of software development positions throughout the years (never at a position with more than 200-300 person company) and have yet to be laid off due to money. I've yet to be laid off at all, but that's irrelevant.

I truly believe that these new tools will actually hurt the bigger companies and conversely help smaller ones. I'm in healthcare. The big players in the EMR space are Epic and Cerner. They are one-size-fits-all behemoths that hospitals have to work against than with. What if, instead of having to reach out to the big players, the economics of having a software developer or 2 on staff make it such that you could build custom-tailored, bespoke software to work "with" your company and not against?

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#45

Post by epolanski »

> The result is the worst of both worlds. European engineers now face US-level job insecurity with European-level compensation and limited mobility.

Firing people in most of Europe is still not as easy as it is in the US.

The opposite is also true, it's not that easy to leave your employer and you have to give 1/3/6 months notice before leaving, depending on your role/seniority/contract.

Sometimes companies even make you sign 12 months notice contracts clause where they pay you a fixed monthly bonus but you can't leave without giving a 12 months notice, my SO has signed one.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#46

Post by lifetimerubyist »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #17
lifetimerubyist wrote: post #11

The industry was always a disaster, but if you take a disaster and put AI in the mix you get a disaster at light speed. It was always getting worse and worse but now it’s speedrunning it.

Not so much AI itself, but the billions invested into it and the hardware required - anything you invest billions into but that doesn't have similar return on investment is a fast track to an economic crash / correction. The Y2K tech companies are a previous example, investors were champing at the bit to invest in uh, pets.com or whatever but turns out it didn't / wouldn't earn enough money to earn it back.

I agree with the economic argument.

But I literally mean if you have a crappy business and put AI into it you’re just gonna make your business worse.

AI as a tool is not actually a solution for very much. AI can mark a good process better but it will also make bad processes way worse.

It’s a power drill upgrade when you were previously only using a screwdriver, but it’s still not a table saw.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#47

Post by cong-or »

Interesting framing. The article makes a compelling case that we're seeing the hangover from 14 years of ZIRP-fueled hiring rather than an AI apocalypse.

But I'm curious what people think the equilibrium looks like. If the "two-tier system" (core revenue teams + disposable experimental teams) becomes the norm, what does that mean for the future of SWE as a career?

A few scenarios I keep turning over:

  1. Bifurcation - A small elite of "10x engineers" command premium comp while the majority compete for increasingly commoditized roles                                                       
  2. Craftsmanship revival - Companies learn that the "disposable workforce" model ships garbage, and there's renewed appreciation for experienced engineers who stick around                 
  3. Consulting/contractor becomes default - Full-time employment becomes rare; most devs work project-to-project like other creative industries
The article argues AI isn't the cause, but it seems like it could accelerate whatever trend is already in motion. If companies are already treating engineers as interchangeable inventory, AI tooling gives them cover to reduce headcount further.

For those of you 10+ years into your careers: are you optimistic about staying in IC roles long-term, or does management/entrepreneurship feel like the only sustainable path?

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#48

Post by carlosjobim »

Should information technology be a stable employment sector?

As far as I'm concerned, the main purpose of IT is to automate work. Tech companies make these systems of automation and provide them to other industries, so they can automate.

Making a program or an IT system is something you only do once. So once it is completed, it is expected that a lot of people who helped make it have to go. It's like building a skyscraper. Massive amounts of work to build it, and when it's finished, most workers have to move on.

Of course an IT company can continue to expand into perpetuity, but what if they don't have the leadership talent or resources to create a new giant project after one has been finished? Then the sensible thing is to down-size.

"Well don't hire too many people in the first place to rush your project into completion" - Then you get left behind.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#49

Post by anonymous908213 »

mexicocitinluez wrote: post #44
oytis wrote: post #24

Anecdotally, I didn't see more safety for engineers working on cash cows. Quite the contrary, if a product is already bringing revenue, it is an easy decision for the business to squeeze a bit more margin by letting people go. Stable, cash-generating projects are often first to be put into efficiency/maintenance mode.

Also anecdotally, I've had a handful of software development positions throughout the years (never at a position with more than 200-300 person company) and have yet to be laid off due to money. I've yet to be laid off at all, but that's irrelevant. I truly believe that these new tools will actually hurt the bigger companies and conversely help smaller ones. I'm in healthcare. The big players in the EMR space are Epic…

Aren't they still going to need to reach out to the big players because of the regulatory environment? And for good reason, as it happens. We don't need hospitals handing over the public's health data to the cheapest person they can find to prompt it all into Claude.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#50

Post by rvz »

miohtama wrote: post #26

There is some fat in the system that likely needs to cut off. Here is Google complaint about not serving lobster biscue: https://x.com/Andercot/status/1768346257486184566?s=20 Zero interest rate phenomenon.

This is likely the first time many have not experienced a widespread economic crash since 2008.

We could get another 2008-like market crash before 2030, once the major AI companies begin to IPO onto the public markets.

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