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Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

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Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#41

Post by p1esk »

kelseyfrog wrote: post #38
BirAdam wrote: post #23

If all jobs were taken by AI in a short time span, the companies owning and operating those AIs would go out of business as no one would be able to afford the products made by the AIs. This is an unlikely scenario. Not all things will be made/run by AIs in a short time. It is far more likely that specific jobs in specific industries will be taken by AI, and AI will slowly take the labor market. This will drive down p…

Except the services that are intractably human: educators, judges, lawyers, social workers, personal trainers, childcare workers. Those will suffer the Baumol effect and their prices will rise to extraordinary levels.

The best educator I’ve ever had is ChatGPT.

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#42

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

kelseyfrog wrote: post #38
BirAdam wrote: post #23

If all jobs were taken by AI in a short time span, the companies owning and operating those AIs would go out of business as no one would be able to afford the products made by the AIs. This is an unlikely scenario. Not all things will be made/run by AIs in a short time. It is far more likely that specific jobs in specific industries will be taken by AI, and AI will slowly take the labor market. This will drive down p…

Except the services that are intractably human: educators, judges, lawyers, social workers, personal trainers, childcare workers. Those will suffer the Baumol effect and their prices will rise to extraordinary levels.

One would assume - if this were to happen - that supply and demand would bring prices back down, as everyone would rush to those fields.

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#43

Post by raincole »

BirAdam wrote: post #23

If all jobs were taken by AI in a short time span, the companies owning and operating those AIs would go out of business as no one would be able to afford the products made by the AIs. This is an unlikely scenario. Not all things will be made/run by AIs in a short time. It is far more likely that specific jobs in specific industries will be taken by AI, and AI will slowly take the labor market. This will drive down p…

There are millions of jobs that can be fully automated with 20th century technology but are still done by humans today because 1) third world labor is just too cheap 2) unions and other job protection policies.

Therefore the scenario where 'all jobs being replaced in a short time span' is simply impossible.

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#44

Post by mips_avatar »

ewuhic wrote: post #37
mips_avatar wrote: post #20

Outside of America people aren't really stressed about AI. Like you go to Vietnam or Vienna they mostly just think that they will have a good life with AI. It's uniquely American to believe that your life will end when AI takes your job. The problem isn't the AI it's that your access to basic rights is intermediated by a corporate job. American's need to decenter their self worth from their jobs. Like when I quit Mic…

I am from Vienna, and this is completely false. Likewise, my friends from many countries, incl. Vietnam, also share the sentiment you describe as "American". Your point has no standing.

Ok well I didn't meet everyone in Vienna or Vietnam, but those I did meet hadn't been laid off in the name of AI (yesterday three of my friends were laid off from Amazon). And if you're laid off in Vienna you still have access to healthcare, and there's a functioning safety net, and just generally a sense that you're not alone in this. In the united states my apartment has a homeless man living beneath it and every night you hear him either screaming because he doesn't have access to drugs or laughing because he does. There's a not so subtle attitude that maybe people like that deserve to die. So yes maybe people in Vienna don't like AI, but you are wrong that they fear it in the way Americans do.

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#45

Post by b112 »

ar_lan wrote: post #36
Mordisquitos wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would AGI choose to run the planet?

This is honestly a fantastic question. AGI has no emotions, no drive, anything. Maybe, just maybe, it would want to: * Conserve power as much as possible, to "stay alive". * Optimize for power retention Why would it be further interested in generating capital or governing others, though?

I think you have it, with the governing of power and such.

We don't want to rule ants, but we don't want them eating all the food, or infesting our homes.

Bad outcomes for humans, don't imply or mean malice.

(food can be any resource here)

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#46

Post by [deleted] »

kelseyfrog wrote: post #38
BirAdam wrote: post #23

If all jobs were taken by AI in a short time span, the companies owning and operating those AIs would go out of business as no one would be able to afford the products made by the AIs. This is an unlikely scenario. Not all things will be made/run by AIs in a short time. It is far more likely that specific jobs in specific industries will be taken by AI, and AI will slowly take the labor market. This will drive down p…

Except the services that are intractably human: educators, judges, lawyers, social workers, personal trainers, childcare workers. Those will suffer the Baumol effect and their prices will rise to extraordinary levels.

[deleted]

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#47

Post by alexjplant »

mips_avatar wrote: post #20

Outside of America people aren't really stressed about AI. Like you go to Vietnam or Vienna they mostly just think that they will have a good life with AI. It's uniquely American to believe that your life will end when AI takes your job. The problem isn't the AI it's that your access to basic rights is intermediated by a corporate job. American's need to decenter their self worth from their jobs. Like when I quit Mic…

For a while my job was part of my identity in the way you describe not because "lol hypercapitalist American" but because I like computers and computers also pay the bills. I was writing software and doing technical stuff from a young age because I enjoyed it. I fell into doing it professionally because it was an obvious path. It didn't help that when you do this older people like it because they can use you as free/cheap labor which an impressionable kid might mistake for actual praise. It turns out I like other stuff too but it's hard to talk to people socially about obscure New Wave bands and continental philosophy and 90s neo-noir films whereas computers and gizmos and apps are a common frame of reference.

I guarantee you that these people exist in other countries too. Not everybody is a tech bro strawman.

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#48

Post by brewdad »

BirAdam wrote: post #23

If all jobs were taken by AI in a short time span, the companies owning and operating those AIs would go out of business as no one would be able to afford the products made by the AIs. This is an unlikely scenario. Not all things will be made/run by AIs in a short time. It is far more likely that specific jobs in specific industries will be taken by AI, and AI will slowly take the labor market. This will drive down p…

We are already at a point where the richest 10% of Americans represent half of total consumer spending. A lot of companies would fail but plenty of them would survive just fine if we assume AI won't take literally ALL of the jobs.

As for the civil unrest, I see Minneapolis as a bit of a dry run of what it would take to remove large numbers of presumably poor minorities along with anyone else who objects. The job is clearly more than the leadership expected but it still seems within the realm of possibility given the fact the minority party leaders are barely saying no to those in power.

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#49

Post by BurningFrog »

falcor84 wrote: post #21
alexjray wrote: post #6

Even if they automate all our current jobs uniquely human experiences will always be valuable to us and will always have demand.

There's a bit of a circular argument here - even if we human always assign intrinsic value to ourselves and our kin, I don't see a clear argument that human capabilities will have external value to the economy at large.

"The economy" is entirely driven by human needs.

If you "unwind" all the complexities in modern supply chains, there are always human people paying for something they want at the leaf nodes.

Take the food and clothing industries as obvious examples. In some AI singularity scenario where all humans are unemployed and dirt poor, does all the food and clothing produced by the automated factories just end up in big piles because we naked and starving people can't afford to buy them?

Re: Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)

#50

Post by ewuhic »

mips_avatar wrote: post #44
ewuhic wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am from Vienna, and this is completely false. Likewise, my friends from many countries, incl. Vietnam, also share the sentiment you describe as "American". Your point has no standing.

Ok well I didn't meet everyone in Vienna or Vietnam, but those I did meet hadn't been laid off in the name of AI (yesterday three of my friends were laid off from Amazon). And if you're laid off in Vienna you still have access to healthcare, and there's a functioning safety net, and just generally a sense that you're not alone in this. In the united states my apartment has a homeless man living beneath it and every n…

You have a very rosy picture of non-Pax-Americana.
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