When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes
Some advice from Jeff Bezos
81–90 of 140 posts
Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be inconsistent is the easiest thing in the world: just refuse to think about the meaning of what you believe or do. I don't think the point of Bezos's remark was that we should aspire to be inconsistent, but rather, we should be open to considering that our ideas might be wrong. A better quote for this idea: "Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You…
'Contradictions do not exist' is nonsense. Contradictions exist all over the place. Any time you get two people together you'll have contradictions due to viewpoint, experience, perspectives. Denying that contradictions exist is a child-like view of the world. Working with the contradictions of life, now that's the fun and the challenge, isn't it?
"Anyone who denies the law of non-contradiction should be beaten and burned until he admits that to be beaten is not the same as not to be beaten, and to be burned is not the same as not to be burned."--Avicenna
Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
Usually when I see it, it is people complaining that a candidate endorsed different viewpoints than they did during past elections (in other words, they think something different than they did years ago). Kerry and Romney both come to mind (though to be clear, both (or at least Romney) have been accused of the type you are talking about as well) . Specifically I have heard some people claim that Romney has flip-flopp…
I think a lot of that is just that if the person in question clearly does just say whatever they think people want to hear, then a dramatic change in position appears more likely to just be more of the same. Romney suddenly being against "obamacare" is a good example. It doesn't appear that he changed his mind because of new information, since he still claims his version of the same thing is great, but Obama's is ter…
Similarly, Romney has recently said "I have never said I was pro-choice" but he did, multiple times, say that he "supports a woman's right to choose".
So, the verb form is OK but the noun form is absolutely not.
Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
I suspect the racist tag was applied because stereotypically white men are slower runners than black men. But as far as racism goes that's... not to mention that it's a white guy talking about himself.
While I'm generally happy with the position that white guys can take it, I think it's still racist to imply white men are slow, whether one is a white guy or not.
It's not really racist to say something like that especially when there is strong supporting evidence.
Racism is where you advocate treating somebody differently because of these differences. So it would be racist to say "White men are too slow therefor should be banned from taking part in the olympics"
Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos
#85Good advice but I'm curious about: "Jason Fried is the fastest white man you'll ever meet." Is Jason actually really fast and/or was he an athlete at a prior time?
Yeah, it was really weird hitting the bottom of the article only to find a vaguely racist nonsensical byline.
I'm not going to defend the byline (because it's cheap and inappropriate for the context) but there is a distinction between racial humor and racist humor. Not everything that addresses the concept of race is automatically racist, especially when it's not mean-spirited or demeaning.
It's a line that I'm not clever enough to tread, but other people seem to pull it off. Look at Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder. Very racial, not really racist.
Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos
#86Keeping an open mind is a great philosophy, so long as your mind doesn't change so quickly that no one can coordinate actions with you. But I'm having a difficult time inferring the significance of this post. On the one hand, if I'm constantly changing my mind, and my mind tends to change toward a stable, slow-changing correct solution, by definition, I'll be "right a lot", so long as I've had sufficient time to conv…
As Keynes said, "When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?"
When I was younger, I didn't know what confirmation bias was. I had to be introduced to the concept. After being introduced, I was able to make better decisions. Although it may seem trivially true to you (now?), it's not to everyone.
You may be reading more into "change their minds a lot" than is intended. A lot in this context means "more than most people". There's a reason phrases like "strong opinions, weakly held" become popular in rationalist circles. It's an emphasis on better decision making.
I think the first time I heard about this idea was in Marilyn vos Savant's Brain Building. She argued that societal infatuation with "having the courage of your convictions" is not the redeeming quality it's made out to be. She mentioned that she could always give her opinion on an issue, but she was also always prepared to change her opinion upon new information.
I'm pretty sure Bezos does not mean you should change your mind 180 degrees at each new contradictory piece of information. Like a Bayesian spam filter, if you've had lots of pieces of evidence for one position, it should take lots or very significant new evidence to change that position.
Decision making biases of various sorts are my chief pet peeve in modern life. It's almost impossible to discuss public policy with people, even in the smartest online forums I know. I think it's banned at Less Wrong. When I listen to the media, I spend most of my time ticking of the biases I hear.
Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos
#87Just the other day during a design discussion I was arguing for X instead of Y and was reminded that I was the one who introduced Y earlier in the discussion. I was finally able to bring out Walt Whitman during a technical discussion and responded "I contain multitudes". :)
Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos
#88Earlier quoted context omitted.
The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right 100% of the time and therefore would never change their opinion because changing it would go from right to wrong. A subtly different view: The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right close to 100% of the time because they would change any wrong opinion almost immediately. And with this view, the closer you are to that…
That's a much more realistic cleverest person, but in terms of hypotheticals it is clearly better to be right 100% of the time than to almost immediately change your opinion the 1% of the time you start off wrong.
I believe that's an error in perception that has lead us to religion and other "I'm always right" worldviews.
Actually, no, it is not better.
Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos
#89Off-topic: how do they get typography so right?! If I just throw those fonts on my site they will look crappy, but their articles are always great looking.
Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos
#90Keeping an open mind is a great philosophy, so long as your mind doesn't change so quickly that no one can coordinate actions with you. But I'm having a difficult time inferring the significance of this post. On the one hand, if I'm constantly changing my mind, and my mind tends to change toward a stable, slow-changing correct solution, by definition, I'll be "right a lot", so long as I've had sufficient time to conv…
Maybe it's obvious, but I think the observation resembles an NP-complete problem: it's easy to verify that it is true, but finding it is difficult.