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Some advice from Jeff Bezos

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Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#41

And the sad thing is that society often punishes people who change their minds or "flip-flop". See politics.

Flip-flopping in politics is often an insincere change of position for the purpose of chasing votes.

"chasing votes"

Or perhaps another way of looking at it is they are trying to represent voters better. Since that's, well, their job.

We should not get onto politicians for representing voters, rather than themselves. Changing their approach to public policy is a very good way for a public official to better represent voters.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#42
"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson.

When I first read that quote in early High School I didn't understand it. It was the kind of thing that ate at me, I could not get what he was trying to say. To me, consistency was an important part of life; the old adage that you stick to your word. However, that quote transcends the idea of being consistent, because when you often make decisions without all of the information (especially in startups). As new information becomes available, you have to incorporate it into your decision. Sometimes it makes you look like a dick, or someone that doesn't know what direction they want to go to, but that's where different skills (leadership and sales) come in to be able to hold people together.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#44
post #33

I never understood why consistent opinions are considered a good thing, it doesn't make any sense. If I realize I'm wrong, why should I stick to the wrong opinion?

The whole concept of "flip flopping" being a bad thing is something from the political arena that spilled out into a broader social context. There's absolutely nothing wrong with changing your mind as your understanding evolves.

I'm not sure I buy the theory about it originating in political discourse.

It's a very basic concept. Changing your mind almost necessarily involves admitting you were wrong in the first instance — if you do not admit it outright, someone else will likely confront you on it.

People don't like admitting they were wrong. It makes one look bad, and provides one's enemies with ammunition.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#45
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right 100% of the time and therefore would never change their opinion because changing it would go from right to wrong. The problem with this, is that most opinions are applied to most circumstances in highly contextual ways. What's the best database? It's one thing to talk about it in abstract and another entirely to talk about it for a specific pro…

> The problem with this, is that most opinions are applied to most circumstances in highly contextual ways. What's the best database? It's one thing to talk about it in abstract and another entirely to talk about it for a specific project. That doesn't prevent someone from being right 100% of the time. It may prevent them from saying "x is the best database", but not from saying "x is the best for y use, z is the bes…

> That doesn't prevent someone from being right 100% of the time. It may prevent them from saying "x is the best database", but not from saying "x is the best for y use, z is the best for... etc"

PG has noted that Robert Morris was one of the smartest people he knew, because he always knew when he shouldn't give an opinion.

> The problem is with the fact that no-one is capable of always being right, not that the hypothetical person couldn't always be right.

No disagreement there. A corollary: a big problem is embodied in people who don't know that the above is the case and take steps to mitigate it.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#46

Makes a lot of sense to be honest. If ideas aren't held too dearly you'll be able to weed out the bad ones. A lot of people (myself included) have a certain irrational loss aversion when it comes to ideas. I'm sure one could find plenty of articles on this on LessWrong.

[deleted]

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#47
Bezos's observation reminds me of Philip Tetlock's conclusions in "Expert Political Judgement" (http://press.princeton.edu/titles/7959.html). Tetlock studied it pretty rigorously and came to a number of conclusions, but the central thesis was that people who got things right the most were people who thought by building up lots of competing models and evaluating all of them (ie, having lots of little ideas) rather than guiding all their decisions by a single ideology.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#48
post #30

I never understood why consistent opinions are considered a good thing, it doesn't make any sense. If I realize I'm wrong, why should I stick to the wrong opinion?

The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right 100% of the time and therefore would never change their opinion because changing it would go from right to wrong. Therefore a simplistic view is that the closer to that person you are, the better. Some people may even think they are that person. Realising that you are not going to be correct 100% of the time is the first step. The second step is…

The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right 100% of the time and therefore would never change their opinion because changing it would go from right to wrong.

A subtly different view: The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right close to 100% of the time because they would change any wrong opinion almost immediately.

And with this view, the closer you are to that person, the better you really are.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#49
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right 100% of the time and therefore would never change their opinion because changing it would go from right to wrong. Therefore a simplistic view is that the closer to that person you are, the better. Some people may even think they are that person. Realising that you are not going to be correct 100% of the time is the first step. The second step is…

The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right 100% of the time and therefore would never change their opinion because changing it would go from right to wrong. A subtly different view: The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right close to 100% of the time because they would change any wrong opinion almost immediately. And with this view, the closer you are to that…

That's a much more realistic cleverest person, but in terms of hypotheticals it is clearly better to be right 100% of the time than to almost immediately change your opinion the 1% of the time you start off wrong.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#50

I would argue that this is the defining factor in what makes someone intelligent or not. If you're always revising your ways of thinking about a problem, your probability of converging on a solution is vastly greater than someone with a narrow, one-track focus. In fact, another article on the HN homepage ( http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/streams-of-consciousness... ) elaborates on this point of trying multiple "s…

Great comment. I appreciate the principle you're working towards, and largely agree with it. But I wonder if the analogy with Physics works well as a broad metaphor for "intelligence." The gaps between Newtonian, Quantum and Relativity model physics are singular instances of a peculiar, nearly paradoxical set of apparent contradictions that of course have yet to be fully resolved. Each is correct within its own domain, and the full realization of the implications of each requires complete commitment to the rules within the domain to the exclusion of the other models.

So the analogy can also turn around and bite you here. If a researcher in Quantum theory were to get hung up on the apparent contradictions between her own research and the implications within one of the other models, she'd risk being distracted and lose the fruitful path of research within her given domain. In this case, a certain level of myopia is helpful.

Did Einstein's tremendous resistance to Heisenberg and Bohr impugn his accomplishments in any way? Of course not. I don't think anyone would use that as an example of diminished intelligence on Einstein's part.

Your broader point is valid: be open to other viewpoints. But at another level, taking up a position and defending it has its practical advantages, when the position/opinion shows fruitful results.

In software, I think of DHH's 'opinionated' approach to Rails and how that has informed and guided the whole Ruby community. For many programmers Rails' implicit, "magical" approach to coding is not as good as, for instance Django/Python's more explicit philosophy. Both points of view are valid, but the strengths of each would be diluted if they tried to do both. I also think of the Torvalds/Tanenbaum debate over Kernel architectures. Deciding which is correct is way above my pay grade, but it seems clear to me that Linus had to take up a position here and commit to it in order for Linux to thrive the way it has.

I also think of the common criticism of JavaScript's OO structures, that it's a confusing hybrid of Prototypical and Classical OOP, leading to inconsistent or confusing structures. Perhaps a thorough commitment to one or the other would have been better?

So, on the one hand a certain openness and teachability is necessary, but then at strategic points in the development of an idea, a certain stubbornness and myopia seems to be equally important to the ultimate execution of a vision.

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