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The tech monoculture is finally breaking

jasonwillems.com

51–60 of 349 posts

Re: The tech monoculture is finally breaking

#51
> Antitrust pressure has slowed consolidation, opened app distribution, killed the anti-competitive iMessage and AirDrop moats, and made big tech cautious about horizontal expansion.

Huh? In what reality is this remotely true? It certainly isn't in the one I live in.

The Big 6 control all media in the US, and mergers happen all the time (WBD->Netflix->Paramount?). Google owns web search and web browsing; Amazon owns e-commerce; Alphabet and Meta own adtech; Amazon, Microsoft, and Google own cloud computing; etc. All of these companies make frequent acquisitions and expansions. "Antitrust pressure" is just the cost of doing business.

What I think the author is referring to are the minor concessions Apple has made in some territories, mainly the EU. And even there, they're using every dirty trick at their disposal to do the absolute bare minimum.

Anti-competitive moats are still alive and well, and growing larger. It's curious that the author is positive about "AI", when that is the ultimate moat builder right now. Nobody can basically touch the largest players, since they have the most resources and access to mind-bogglingly large datacenters.

What a silly article. I don't understand how anyone can consider the current state of the tech industry "fun". I've been following it for nearly 30 years now, and it has gradually been devolving into a place that's anything but fun. Especially in these last ~5 years. I wish I could be optimistic about the future, but it should be obvious to anyone by now that technology, mostly but not entirely by misuse, is the cause of most of our problems.

Re: The tech monoculture is finally breaking

#52
post #15
post #2

> A Timex ad went viral this year: “Know the time without seeing you have 1,249 unanswered emails.” Having to micromanage notifications is why I have two phones - one without a SIM card. It's nice to be able to do stuff on the phone and know it won't bug you. I simply put the one with the SIM card elsewhere (other room, leave in car, etc). No - I'm not going to spend too much time learning how to "effectively" manage…

My strategy here is to default notifications off for everything other than calls and texts. And then manually open Gmail to check mail, manually open Instagram when I feel like checking notifications, etc. It’s such a better experience when you’re opening an app because you want to, and not because a notification is baiting you.

iOS or Android?

Can you default it to off and not have any popups (during run/install) asking you to enable permissions to notify? Or do you have to decline once per app?

Re: The tech monoculture is finally breaking

#53
post #2

> A Timex ad went viral this year: “Know the time without seeing you have 1,249 unanswered emails.” Having to micromanage notifications is why I have two phones - one without a SIM card. It's nice to be able to do stuff on the phone and know it won't bug you. I simply put the one with the SIM card elsewhere (other room, leave in car, etc). No - I'm not going to spend too much time learning how to "effectively" manage…

Adding on to this I think it's bizarre how you need to have a phone to navigate life now and corporations just assume you have one. So for example, using QR codes to gain entry to things. It's weird to think about how we all carry around this expensive computer and think nothing of it. It's like when we laugh about how people in the Middle Ages carried a personal knife for eating because hosts wouldn't supply you wit…

> Adding on to this I think it's bizarre how you need to have a phone to navigate life now and corporations just assume you have one.

I have a VoIP phone line from 2004. I was told yesterday that it was showing up as "Spam" on someone's phone. Sigh.

Also, for 2FA, some services allow phone calls. So I put in the VoIP line and not my cell phone. At some point, any given service switches to text-only for 2FA - but they don't notify me in advance and I'm locked out for good.

Even worse, some 2FA that allow phone calls just will not call my VoIP line. No warnings, etc. But if I put my mobile number it calls.

And QR codes for menus? I try not to eat at such establishments. Paper is cheap. I don't need a fancy menu. If you change your prices, just print new ones.

Re: The tech monoculture is finally breaking

#54
post #13

What the author describes seems to be more specific examples in his/her circle rather than a wider movement I’d say. The walled gardens are imo getting worse. And opting out (dumb phone) isn’t the same thing as that dissolving. That said I’m also cautiously optimistic in some areas. Linux on desktop in particular is on a good streak. Riscv seems promising. More people are understanding lock in risk etc.

> The walled gardens are imo getting worse But isn't Apple (the most egregious example IMO) losing a slew of cases in many jurisdictions (not just EU)? I think the consensus is very much that they've overplayed their hand and the bill is coming due

Various player are getting slapped with fines but haven’t seen much sign of it having effect.

Think the fines need more zeros - especially if the behaviour is egregious

Re: The tech monoculture is finally breaking

#55
post #8

What a weird techno-optimist blog post, full of cherry-picked examples, with a twist of consumerism. Refreshing take in a sea of nihilism, but saying people are interested in Pokémon and N64 games again when it's mostly post-NFT "everything is an investment" mentality is cute in its naivety.

I think the key, and I’m basing this on people in real life, is that these are all different people, and the person toying with Linux desktop is not also buying an mp3 player and paper notebooks and that person isn’t the one who’s building a DVD library. But what he’s onto is the thing that unifies all these weird little niches: they’re motivated by a bone deep annoyance with the most popular big tech offerings. None…

> is that these are all different people, and the person toying with Linux desktop is not also buying an mp3 player and paper notebooks and that person isn’t the one who’s building a DVD library.

Hey! That's (almost) me!

My desktop has been Linux for multiple decades.

I buy paper notebooks and write with pen. Always have.

mp3 player: You got me on that one. Although I did buy a Yoto (https://us.yotoplay.com/) and perhaps I should just use it as an mp3 player, but to be honest it's a poor player (no shuffle without app, etc). On the flip side, what I like about it is putting podcasts on cards. I can assign a card to any podcast feed and it will let me choose which episode to listen to.

DVD library: Nah - I used to have one and gave in to Plex. I don't know how many of my 20 year old DVDs will work now. Video files have more longevity. But someone did once post on HN how he had set up a physical card + NFC for his kids. A given card has a particular movie/TV show. They insert the card, and the TV plays just the movie on the card and turns off after. I'd definitely pay for that if I could buy it. I'm sure many parents would.

Re: The tech monoculture is finally breaking

#56
post #25

In the article, he lists his 14 major electronics purchases for 2025 along with "more mechanical watches than I can count". Serious question: is this a normal level of acquisition? I'm not a minimalist, but that's more electronics than I buy in a decade.

He likely has good money, or just decided on a shopping spree and won't buy much in the next few years.

Re: The tech monoculture is finally breaking

#57
post #34
post #29

I think the author is correct to a point but I don't believe the examples they've chosen provide the best support for their case. Gen Z buying iPods and people buying N64 games again is not evidence of the monoculture breaking apart - it's a retreat into the past for the enlightened few because their needs are not being met by modern goods and services. You cannot buy a dedicated MP3 player today with the software po…

> growth and momentum behind Linux and self-hosting as better evidence that change is afoot. Linux is still not user friendly enough. Products from two decades ago are more user friendly than modern "mainstream" disros. Look at Matrix and other OSS that wants to be mainstream. It's got awful UI/UX. And it's never taken off. Gimp is an ugly beast with a bad name. Nobody's using that unless they're a Linux nerd. I do s…

> Linux is still not user friendly enough. Products from two decades ago are more user friendly than modern "mainstream" disros.

> Gimp is an ugly beast with a bad name. Nobody's using that unless they're a Linux nerd.

It depends on the use case. The vast majority of computer users nowadays use only the browser and an office suite. Even email clients are a thing of the past.

It's true that Gimp doesn't have a great UX, but who spends time photoretouching on the computer, when one can do it in a few seconds on the phone?

Re: The tech monoculture is finally breaking

#58
post #52
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My strategy here is to default notifications off for everything other than calls and texts. And then manually open Gmail to check mail, manually open Instagram when I feel like checking notifications, etc. It’s such a better experience when you’re opening an app because you want to, and not because a notification is baiting you.

iOS or Android? Can you default it to off and not have any popups (during run/install) asking you to enable permissions to notify? Or do you have to decline once per app?

iOS. Do a 1 time clean up by manually turning everything off. And then decline for every app you install after that.

I can’t believe I used to be one of those people who got every single email delivered to their smart watch.

Re: The tech monoculture is finally breaking

#59
Call me a pessimist, but I don't agree with this blog post at all. The author's views seems a bit biased and narrow based on their social circle perhaps.

> VR is no longer experimental

Till it has practical everyday uses and is at least semi affordable, I would categorize it as experimental still

> Meta shipped a wearable that normal people actually use, thanks to a clever Ray-Ban partnership (and associated equity stake). 3D printers have become real household products.

I don't know a single person who actually owns a Meta wearable device or a 3D printer. Isn't Meta actually shifting their focus away from metaverse?

> Design matters again. In our devices, and in our lives

Design has been forgotten. Just look at your phones and computers and most of the web.

All I see around me are people swiping away at their screens (most of the time not using their headphones), getting their fix in bursts of 15 seconds, rinse and repeat.

It's getting harder to have fun with tech when you have to deal with things like:

* Operating systems that are actively hostile to their users (Windows and OSX).

* iPhone and Android being the only 2 choice when it comes to phones (the author did mention this). The chances of getting a 3rd player here seems negligible.

* Everyone trying to shove AI down your throat. At no time in the past did we need mandates to use a "useful" thing.

* A couple of players consolidating all the power in the AI space and millions of people having no ethical issues about using products from these companies, or opening up their source code and data for these companies to come suck it all up.

* No real disruption or competition in the browser space. It will be a long time before Ladybird will be usable.

* Bloated, heavy websites with popups galore.

* Everything getting a redesign every couple of months for no reason

* You don't own anything anymore. Even building your own PC seems like it will become a thing of the past given how price are rising.

I could go on.

Re: The tech monoculture is finally breaking

#60
post #29

I think the author is correct to a point but I don't believe the examples they've chosen provide the best support for their case. Gen Z buying iPods and people buying N64 games again is not evidence of the monoculture breaking apart - it's a retreat into the past for the enlightened few because their needs are not being met by modern goods and services. You cannot buy a dedicated MP3 player today with the software po…

>You cannot buy a dedicated MP3 player today with the software polish and quality of life that an iPod had in the early 2000s wat. I'm curious how an ipod from 2000 is better than, for example, the Fiio jm21. It's worse in pretty much every possible way, other than the ipod might be appealing to a certain kind of 'old man shakes fist at clouds' type of user.

I can't speak from personal experience with the Fiio jm21, but I was a big user of a previous generation of Fiio, and while I imagine some technical leaps forward have been achieved with this generation (the Fiio M1 never, for instance, achieved gapless playback from 2015-2021, even though this was promised with every new software version), taking a quick look at it... this is just an android phone interface! App store? Chrome? I certainly don't want this from a dedicated music device

Beyond this, I'd say that the true advantage of the iPod Classic was a matter of polish and UX:

* Dedicated buttons/wheel/etc that are tactile instead of a touchscreen interface (the Fiio M1 was button-and-wheel based, but it never approached the quality of Apple engineering); I see the jm21 has some side-based buttons for pause/forward/back, which is nice, but a touchscreen as main interface still grates * A way to interface with your albums that was delightful and visually dense (Cover Flow remains the single greatest music UI put forward)

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