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AI is a horse (2024)

kconner.com

81–90 of 254 posts

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#82
Horses have some semblance of self preservation and awareness of danger - see: jumping. LLMs do not have that at all so the analogy fails.

My term of “Automation Improved” is far more relevant and descriptive in current state of the art deployments. Same phone / text logic trees, next level macro-type agent work, none of it is free range. Horses can survive on their own. AI is a task helper, no more.

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#83
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been calling LLMs "electric bicycles for the mind", inspired by that Jobs quote. - some bicycle purists consider electric bicycles to be "cheating" - you get less exercise from an electric bicycle - they can get you places really effectively! - if you don't know how to ride a bicycle an electric bicycle is going to quickly lead you to an accident

I like this analogy. I'll add that, while electric bicycles are great for your daily commute, they're not suited for the extremes of biking (at least not yet). - You're not going to take an electric bike mountain biking - You're not going to use an electric bike to do BMX - You're not going to use an electric bike to go bikepacking across the country

I think you're kind of missing the point discussing which vehicle compares better to LLMs. The point is not the vehicle: it's the birth of the engine. Before engines, humans didn't have the means to produce those amounts of power- at all. No matter how many people, horses or oxen they had at their disposal.

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#84

Famously Steve Jobs said that the (personal) computer is "like a bicycle for the mind". It's a great metaphor because- besides the idea of lightness and freedom it communicates- it also described the computer as multiplier of the human strength- the bicycle allows one to travel faster and with much less effort, it's true, but ultimately the source of its power is still entirely in the muscles of the cyclist- you don'…

Its like a motor bike, except it doesn't take you where you steer. It take you where it wants to take you.

If you tell it you want to go somewhere continents away, it will happily agree and drive you right into the ocean.

And this is before ads and other incentives make it worse.

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#85
I see AI as an awesome technology, but also a like programming roulette.

It could go and do the task perfectly as instructed, or it could do something completely different that you haven't asked for and destroy everything in its path in the process.

I personally found that if you don't give it write access to anything that you can't easily restore and you review and commit code often it saves me a lot of time. It also makes the whole process more enjoyable, since it takes care of a lot of boilerplate for me.

It's definitely NOT intelligent, it's more like a glorified autocomplete but it CAN save a huge amount of time if used correctly.

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#86
post #84

Famously Steve Jobs said that the (personal) computer is "like a bicycle for the mind". It's a great metaphor because- besides the idea of lightness and freedom it communicates- it also described the computer as multiplier of the human strength- the bicycle allows one to travel faster and with much less effort, it's true, but ultimately the source of its power is still entirely in the muscles of the cyclist- you don'…

Its like a motor bike, except it doesn't take you where you steer. It take you where it wants to take you. If you tell it you want to go somewhere continents away, it will happily agree and drive you right into the ocean. And this is before ads and other incentives make it worse.

It will take you where you want to go if you can clearly communicate your intent through refinement iterations.

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a legitimate fear that is born from what happened with Chess. Humans could handily beat computers at chess for a long time. Then a massive supercomputer beat the reigning champion, but didn't win the tournament. Then that computer came back and won the tournament a year later. A few years later humans are collaborating in-game with these master chess engines to multiply their strength, becoming the d…

The irony with the chess example is that chess has never been more popular. Perhaps we're about to experience yet another renaissance of computer languages.

I know chess is popular because I have a friend who's enthusiastic about it and plays online regularly.

But I'm out of the loop: in order to maintain popularity, are computers banned? And if so, how is this enforced, both at the serious and at the "troll cheating" level?

(I suppose for casual play, matchmaking takes care of this: if someone is playing at superhuman level due to cheating, you're never going to be matched with them, only with people who play at around your level. Right?)

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#88
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe AI is a centaur??

After Deep Blue Garry Kapsparav proposed "Centaur Chess"[1] where teams of humans and computers would complete with each other. For about a decade a team like that was superior to either an unaided computer or an unaided AI. These days pure AI teams tend to be much stronger. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_chess

With intelligence of models seeming spikey/lumpy I suspect we'll see tasks and domains fall to AI one at a time. Some will happen quickly and others may take far longer than we expect.

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#89
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Horses poop a lot. A lot.

I had to search about and it's indeed a lot: "it is quite normal for a horse to poo (defecate) 8-12 times a day and produce anywhere from 13 to 23 kilograms of poo a day." Source: https://www.ranvet.com.au/horse-poo/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_horse_manure_crisis_of_1...

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a legitimate fear that is born from what happened with Chess. Humans could handily beat computers at chess for a long time. Then a massive supercomputer beat the reigning champion, but didn't win the tournament. Then that computer came back and won the tournament a year later. A few years later humans are collaborating in-game with these master chess engines to multiply their strength, becoming the d…

The irony with the chess example is that chess has never been more popular. Perhaps we're about to experience yet another renaissance of computer languages.

I'd argue the renaissance is already off the ground; one man's vibe-coded-slop is another man's vision that he finally has the tools to realize.
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