Live data from Hacker News

In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels

e360.yale.edu

281–290 of 809 posts

Re: In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels

#281

Curious if this will eventually change China's calculus with regards to Russia. If Europe is a big customer for Chinese exports, and Russia is antagonizing, it seems like China would have an incentive to put pressure on Russia. It already seems like Russia is positioned to be completely subservient to China in the future.

If Europe were a big customer for Russia energy, it seems like Russia would have an incentive to not antagonize it. Oh, see how well it went.

Russia did have a big incentive to not antagonize Europe.

But sadly they have a political system that doesn't reflect what is best for the ordinary person. So those incentives can be ignored by those making the decisions.

See also, Trump invading Greenland.

Re: In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels

#282
post #128
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is happy as a clam that Russia is self-isolating and destroying their internal economy. The natural resources of Russia are vast and if China is the only one exploiting them and funneling them into the Chinese economy it'd be an excellent outcome. I don't think China is opposed to strong economies as trade partners but dependent economies are much easier to control and monopolize.

[flagged]

Russia holds leverage over China is probably the funniest statement I've read on HN in a long time ...

Re: In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I looked into sodium-ion batteries for which factories are coming online in China. The theoretical manufacturing cost of those is very very low, which will make solar + batteries very cheap. I suspect China will reach those costs ahead of schedule.

IMO this is a classic case of underestimating how far manufacturing improvements can get you on the cost scale. You see a promising technology in the lab and it’s hard to imagine a 1 million x reduction in price, yet we see that time and time again as tech gets scaled out. What’s wild to me is how the US is leaving itself in the dust. How the GOP imagines we’ll be competitive when the rest of the world can produce el…

> ow the GOP imagines we’ll be competitive when the rest of the world can produce electricity 10x cheaper

By forcing oil prices to get 10x cheaper, at the barrel of a gun. See: Venezuela and Iran. Will it work? I would not bet on it.

Re: In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels

#284
post #168
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And, credit where credit is due, it's all thanks to China.

2022-11-28 - “About 2.6 million Uyghur and Kazakh people have been subjected to coercion, “re-education programs” and internment in the Xinjiang region of north-west China, which is the source of 40-45% of the world’s solar-grade polysilicon. A report by the United Nations office of the high commissioner for human rights three months ago found Xinjiang was home to “serious human rights violations”, and the US has lis…

It's convenient the Islamic countries don't seem to mind their coreligonists being persecuted here, especially as these people haven't launched military invasions of neighboring regions.

Re: In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the difference between a new solar farm and new solar panels on roofs (or the ground) ?

The solar farm produces more energy per dollar spent. Rooftop solar is expensive. It produces comparatively fewer kw to amortize the fixed costs over - permitting, getting up on the roof etc. If a country has abundant land and expensive labor, the money is probably best spent improving grid transmission capacity and otherwise getting the f- out of the way of utility-scale renewables. Places like Pakistan, which is go…

OK, so rooftop solar is a higher /kW solar farm. That's one argument against it.

On the other hand, it is also distributed which from some perspectives is a benefit, and is also do-able with very little planning and grid extension. So that's one argument for it.

How things come out on balance depends a bit on what you value and how you imagine the future.

Re: In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels

#286
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd disagree the fervor is religious. I think it's more frustration. Pointing out there is a maintenance cost to infrastructure is silly and doesn't add to the discussion. We all know materials have to be shaped into machines to extract energy.

Simply ask to quantify the cost of shaping those materials into machinery, respective to other means of energy production. You will be met with hostility and scorn, accused of all sorts of improprieties, and ejected from the tribe, without ever receiving a data-supported answer.

You have received data from several people in this thread alone. Have you updated your opinion accordingly?

Re: In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels

#287
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Solar prices in the US are criminal, protecting oil and gas who bought all the politicians. It would be worth including control of the people who vote for the politicians by direct investment such as when the oil producing Saudis bought the second largest stake in NewCorps which controls FoxNews controlling the content that influences voters. And, less than ethical control using bots on social media by Russia. A lo…

I agree wholeheartedly, and the technocrats are complicit with the GOP here. It's funny how “free markets” keep producing the most expensive solar prices in the developed world. Don't get me started on Healthcare (I just moved back to the U.S. a couple years ago after 18 years in Canada, what a cluster*ck). Oil and gas buy politicians, foreign oil money buys media influence, and social-media bots keep voters angry at…

If even a Democratically-led California is doing this, how can you point fingers at just the GOP? It's endemic to the system, and not restricted to just one party.

Re: In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels

#288
It used to be the big worry among climate activists that you'd never get every country organize and move in one direction. Like you'd need some global body to clean everything up.

That's very fragile.

Luckily, we're moving to a world where a disjoint, self-interested response can be an advantage. Countries decide, for their own selfish reasons, to adopt green energy. For energy independence, affordability, clean air, etc.

So when one country politically rotates out for dumb reasons, other countries pick up the slack and make a bit of progress.

Re: In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels

#289

I'm curious as to how this will shift once the shift towards more electrification continues. This is only about electricity generation, not total power consumption. Nowadays, for very energy intenive things like heating or driving a car, fossil fuels still are more prevalent than electric alternatives. Once demand shifts in favor of the electrified alternatives, electricity demand is continuing to raise (although not…

the prerequisite for fast electrification is cheap electricity. Currently many EU countries have expensive electricity for households

Re: In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels

#290

Imagine the powerhouse America would be (pun intended) if we subsidized nuclear energy to become the defacto producer of nuclear power plants world wide. Sometimes it is easier said than done but this really is as easy as said.

You have it backwards. At the current cost curve for renewables and storage, Nuclear will never again be able to compete. See: the overly optimistic SMR plans being predictably scrapped in many places. What you do have is ample land to build out solar and export eg. Ammonia (made out of Hydrogen) for "free" energy.

nuclear can compete if we re-learn to build on time and on budget. Japanese abwr did cost 3bn and done in <4y. China does the same now for cheaper. There's no such thing as free hydrogen, nor it will be
Post reply on HN