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Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

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Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#41

Post by onion2k »

RRWagner wrote: post #34
pugworthy wrote: post #15

I've got a few high tech friends (and myself) that have slowly become more and more of the mindset to be self sufficient. Two things probably have made me initially think more about it. First, the predictions of a major subduction earthquake here in Oregon, and knowing I'd be somewhat on my own for a while after that. And the other thing is Burning Man, which has taught me about self sufficiency and how one can actua…

Do many people think that with their single assault rifle or other weap9n, that they would successfully defend against one or more truckloads of vandals looking to steal whatever they have stored up "self-sufficiently"? History seems to indicate that in the absence of law, those with the most people inside a fortified structure and position are the most likely to survive.

History seems to indicate that in the absence of law, those with the most people inside a fortified structure and position are the most likely to survive.

I don't think that's true. I imagine the people with the highest chance of survival are the ones whose governing/ruling people seek peace and the rule law quickest. Second would be people who flee to the nearest safe and lawful area. A fortification is probably the third best option if you can't have either of the first, but the probability of that structure keeping you alive is very low, especially if the conflict lasts long enough to become a siege. Entire cities managed to hold out from sieges that lasted for years, but the ordinary people inside did not.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#42

Post by dlcarrier »

omoikane wrote: post #10

I see this page pop up with some regularity, and unfortunately the disasters mentioned within seem to become more and more likely each time I read it. Maybe I am just growing more pessimistic, but COVID-19 felt like yesterday and all the large scale layoffs certainly don't inspire confidence. I renewed my home insurance policy recently and there was one clause along the lines of coverage being excluded for war/insurr…

I'm in California, and I'm lucky that I've been able to renew my home insurance. My brother wasn't able to, because every insurer had pulled out of the area, and he had to buy insurance directly from the state for several times more than what private providers charge, and those rates are likely to go up because the state program that runs it is bankrupt.

If anything happens to the my house, it can take a year or more to get permission to rebuild it, and if fire or earthquake or flood takes out the neighborhood, the permitting backlog can take multiple years. My neighbor tried to build a house on a slope, and it took ten years to get the county to acknowledge that the engineering plans were sound, but by that point my neighbor was too old to build the house.

It's really common to have power outages here at least annually, if not more often, and that's been a problem for decades, but there's significant resistance to building new power plants, including solar and wind, which wouldn't fix the instability anyway, and a tenth of our power comes from the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant, which is past its design life and we'd be lucky to get another five years out of it.

The oil refineries keep shutting down, we don't have any pipelines to bring in oil, and gas stations are required to sell a California-specific formula anyway.

Restaurants are closing everywhere, discount stores are closing, the 99¢ Only chain went bankrupt, eliminating one of the few affordable sources of fresh fruits and vegetables.

We've been so obsessed with NIMBYism for so long that we're losing our infrastructure and quickly approaching a collapse. A high paying job is necessary to barely scrape by, a generator is a must, gasoline shortages may soon become a problem, and electricity outages may grow from seasonal to regular.

I have contingency plans for all of these issues, but long term I'll probably just move to Nevada, Idaho, or Utah.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#43

Post by dlcarrier »

retrocog wrote: post #37

Its always good to be prepared materially, physically, and psychologically. The best preps are not supplies, but relationships. Social credit matters more, IMHO, than anything else when it comes to long emergencies.

That's probably the best strategy, but no one wants to admit it. Everyone seems to think that Lord of the Flies depicts human nature, when in reality teen boys on a deserted island are more likely to form a band than kill each other (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tongan_castaways#Cast_away) and adults are even better behaved.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#44

Post by 0928374082 »

DetectDefect wrote: post #24
jdkee wrote: post #14

Build stable societies.

Care to name any examples?

My relatively stable high trust society has bunker space for more or less the entire population; if the world goes to hell I'd much rather be* among people who (even on our right wing) habitually put solidarity into practice than be worrying about generators, ice augers, and looters.

* one of the best pieces of advice I ever got, related to skating to where the puck is going to be: "if you know where to be, you can let the young guys run"

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#45

Post by throwawayq3423 »

RRWagner wrote: post #34
pugworthy wrote: post #15

I've got a few high tech friends (and myself) that have slowly become more and more of the mindset to be self sufficient. Two things probably have made me initially think more about it. First, the predictions of a major subduction earthquake here in Oregon, and knowing I'd be somewhat on my own for a while after that. And the other thing is Burning Man, which has taught me about self sufficiency and how one can actua…

Do many people think that with their single assault rifle or other weap9n, that they would successfully defend against one or more truckloads of vandals looking to steal whatever they have stored up "self-sufficiently"? History seems to indicate that in the absence of law, those with the most people inside a fortified structure and position are the most likely to survive.

> History seems to indicate that in the absence of law, those with the most people inside a fortified structure and position are the most likely to survive.

Source?

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#48

Post by dlcarrier »

RRWagner wrote: post #34
pugworthy wrote: post #15

I've got a few high tech friends (and myself) that have slowly become more and more of the mindset to be self sufficient. Two things probably have made me initially think more about it. First, the predictions of a major subduction earthquake here in Oregon, and knowing I'd be somewhat on my own for a while after that. And the other thing is Burning Man, which has taught me about self sufficiency and how one can actua…

Do many people think that with their single assault rifle or other weap9n, that they would successfully defend against one or more truckloads of vandals looking to steal whatever they have stored up "self-sufficiently"? History seems to indicate that in the absence of law, those with the most people inside a fortified structure and position are the most likely to survive.

People stockpiling only "weap9n"s aren't going to last near as long as people stockpiling only food.

In real life melee weapons are readily available and far more overpowered that you'd think, but what matters more is that robbery is risky. Winning most of the time isn't enough; you'd need to win all of the time.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#49

Post by defrost »

DetectDefect wrote: post #24
jdkee wrote: post #14

Build stable societies.

Care to name any examples?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBH_Group

A one hundred year old farmer's collective with deep assets and a membership that makes US preppers look ... uhhh, unprepped.

Literally established well outside what one US astronaut called the most remote city in the world, it is made up of individuals that are all capable of survival in harsh environments and yet choose to work together to lower collective costs and ensure fires are kept in check, floods don't knock out individuals, roving scam artists get talked about on bush telegraph, etc.

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