321–330 of 385 posts
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It was overvalued when crypto was happening too, but another boom took its place. Of course, lightening rarely strikes twice and all that, but it proves overvalued doesn’t mean the price is guaranteed to go down it seems. Predicting the future is hard.
As they say, the market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.
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How much of the current usage is productive work that's worth paying for vs personal usage / spam that would just drop off after usage charges come in? I imagine flooding youtube and instagram with slop videos would reduce if users had to pay fair prices to use the models. The companies might also downgrade the quality of the models to make it more viable to provide as an ad supported service which would again reduce…
For any "click here and type into a box" job for which you'd hire a low-skilled worker and give them an SOP to follow, you can have an LLM-ish tool do it. And probably for the slightly more skilled email jobs that have infiltrated nearly all companies too. Is that productive work? Well if people are getting paid, often a multiple of minimum wage, then it's productive-seeming enough.
Why are there still customer service reps? Shouldn’t they all be gone by now due to this amazing technology?
Ah, tumbleweed.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It was overvalued when crypto was happening too, but another boom took its place. Of course, lightening rarely strikes twice and all that, but it proves overvalued doesn’t mean the price is guaranteed to go down it seems. Predicting the future is hard.
if there was anything i was going to bet against between 2019 and now, it was nvidia... and wow it feels wild how much in the opposite direction it went. I do wonder what people would think the reasoning would be for them to increase in value this much back then, prolly would just assume crypto related still.
According to nvidia’s 2025 annual report [1], 34% of their sales for 2025 comes from just 3 customers. Additionally, they mentioned that customers can cancel purchases with little to no penalty and notice [2]. This is not unique for hardware companies, but to think that all it takes is just one company to get their sales down by 12% (14b$). To cut to the point, my guess is that nvidia is not sustainable, and at some…
All the AI companies are locked in a death loop where they must spend as much money as possible otherwise everything they invested will immediately become zero. No one is going to pay for an LLM when the competitor has GAI. So it's death loop for everyone that has become involved in this race.
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Even if LLMs didn't advance at all from this point onward, there's still loads of productive work that could be optimized / fully automated by them, at no worse output quality than the low-skilled humans we're currently throwing at that work.
inference requires a fraction of the power that training does. According to the Villalobos paper, the median date is 2028. At some point we won't be training bigger and bigger models every month. We will run out of additional material to train on, things will continue commodifying, and then the amount of training happening will significantly decrease unless new avenues open for new types of models. But our current LL…
The world is more than just text. We can never run out of pixels if we point cameras at the real world and move them around.
I work in robotics and I don’t think people talking about this stuff appreciate that text and internet pictures is just the beginning. Robotics is poised to generate and consume TONS of data from the real world, not just the internet.
This is fun math to play with, but completely misses the point of how and why options are priced the way they are. Think of horse racing - when a horse is 1000 to 1 odds the odds of that horse winning are much, much lower. The odds are non-zero, but the oddsmakers are considering who the other side is and why they are buying that ticket. Most options are actually used to hedge large positions and are rolled over well…
That sounds like an egregious statement. Markets don't have simple persistent arbitrage opportunities like that, do they?
It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.
does that include the chance for a stock split?
This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…
I hear your argument, but short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon. Of course I could easily be wrong, but regardless I think the most predictable cause for a drop in the NVIDIA price would be that the CHIPS act/recent decisions by the CCP leads a Chinese firm to bring to market a CUDA compatible and reliable GPU at a fraction of the cost. It shoul…