Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction • Hacker News Board

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#311

Post by idiotsecant » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 2:48 AM UTC

CamperBob2 wrote: post #293

idiotsecant wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China invading Taiwan makes zero sense, they just flex those muscles for domestic consumption. They will probably take over Taiwan, but they'll do it how modern major powers do anything: propaganda, influence campaigns, and soft power.

Russia invading Ukraine also made zero sense, given their actual capabilities and the likely (now realized) consequences. The leader doesn't always have the best information, it turns out. Either that, or the leader does have access to the best information, and they just DGAF. That condition seems to be going around too.

I guess I see Chinese leadership as more rational than that, but maybe you're right.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#312

Post by ThrowawayTestr » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 2:52 AM UTC

davesque wrote: post #310

tombert wrote: post #282

It's entirely possible it will crash, but I also don't think it'll go bankrupt or anything. I don't typically buy stock to flip it right away; I have some Nvidia stock that I bought the day after ChatGPT was launched, and I bought a bit more when it was $90/share about a ~year ago. If it drops to $100, then I'll still be in the black, but even if it drops to $50, I'm not going to worry because I figure that I can jus…

> Nvidia has been around long enough and has enough market penetration in datacenters and gaming that I don't think it's going to go bust, and I figure that it will eventually appreciate again just due to inflation. Shouldn't the same argument also apply to Intel?

Intel doesn't make desirable products

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#313

Post by zozbot234 » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 2:56 AM UTC

bigyabai wrote: post #306

tracker1 wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't even necessarily need to be CUDA compatible... there's OpenCL and Vulkan as well, and likely China will throw enough resources at the problem to bring various libraries into closer alignment to ease of use/development. I do think China is still 3-5 years from being really competitive, but still even if they hit 40-50% of NVidia, depending on pricing and energy costs, it could still make significant inroads wi…

> there's OpenCL and Vulkan as well OpenCL is chronically undermaintained & undersupported, and Vulkan only covers a small subset of what CUDA does so far. Neither has the full support of the tech industry (though both are supported by Nvidia, ironically). It feels like nobody in the industry wants to beat Nvidia badly enough, yet. Apple and AMD are trying to supplement raster hardware with inference silicon; both of…

The modern successor to OpenCL is SYCL and there's been some limited convergence with Vulkan Compute (they're still based on distinct programming models and even SPIR-V varieties under the hood, but the distance is narrowing somewhat).

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#314

Post by iancmceachern » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 3:15 AM UTC

Dylan16807 wrote: post #295

iancmceachern wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But Company A also took on debt for theirs, so that's a wash. You assume only one of them has debt to service?

Both companies bought a set of taxis in the past. Presumably at the same time if we want this comparison to be easy to understand. If company A still has debt from that, company B has that much debt plus more debt from buying a new set of taxis . Refreshing your equipment more often means that you're spending more per year on equipment. If you do it too often, then even if the new equipment is better you lose money o…

You are assuming something again.

They both refresh their equipment at the same rate.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#315

Post by bethekidyouwant » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 3:24 AM UTC

SchemaLoad wrote: post #238

unsupp0rted wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if LLMs didn't advance at all from this point onward, there's still loads of productive work that could be optimized / fully automated by them, at no worse output quality than the low-skilled humans we're currently throwing at that work.

How much of the current usage is productive work that's worth paying for vs personal usage / spam that would just drop off after usage charges come in? I imagine flooding youtube and instagram with slop videos would reduce if users had to pay fair prices to use the models. The companies might also downgrade the quality of the models to make it more viable to provide as an ad supported service which would again reduce…

Who is generating videos for free?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#316

Post by bethekidyouwant » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC

Itt: trust me, bro capitalism will fail this time

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#317

Post by pinot » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 3:31 AM UTC

KK7NIL wrote: post #301

toephu2 wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't goto nearly zero. TSMC has a large fab in Arizona and they are continuing to expand it. They also have a fab in Washington, and in Japan. [1] [1] https://www.tsmc.com/english/aboutTSMC/TSMC_Fabs

The fab in Washington is very old (notice it's still equipped for 8 inch wafers) and so pretty irrelevant to Nvidia's business. I'm not quite sure what process they run there but I believe it was an acquisition 10+ years ago, not built from the ground up by them. Edit: their Japan fab is also a mature node so not very relevant here. And their Arizona fab is a very very small portion of their volume and with far worse…

WA fab is verrry old and makes commodity products, think like small microcontrollers etc. 160-350nm processes.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#318

Post by monkaiju » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 3:34 AM UTC

rwmj wrote: post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

US blows up the fabs on the way out!

/s (unless???)

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#319

Post by Nevermark » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 3:42 AM UTC

MrOrelliOReilly wrote: post #230

recursive wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I try to predict how others are going to predict that yet others will react.

And I just predict how you’ll predict

So we have a closed instability/volatility amplification loop. Great: Time for the straddle with finger-cross trade.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#320

Post by Dylan16807 » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 4:13 AM UTC

iancmceachern wrote: post #314

Dylan16807 wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both companies bought a set of taxis in the past. Presumably at the same time if we want this comparison to be easy to understand. If company A still has debt from that, company B has that much debt plus more debt from buying a new set of taxis . Refreshing your equipment more often means that you're spending more per year on equipment. If you do it too often, then even if the new equipment is better you lose money o…

You are assuming something again. They both refresh their equipment at the same rate.

> They both refresh their equipment at the same rate.

I wish you'd said that upfront. Especially because the comment you replied to was talking about replacing at different rates.

So your version, if company A and B are refreshing at the same rate, then that means six months before B's refresh company A had the newer taxis. You implied they were charging similar amounts at that point, so company A was making bigger profits, and had been making bigger profits for a significant time. So when company B is able to cut prices 5%, company A can survive just fine. They don't need to rush into a premature upgrade that costs a ton of money, they can upgrade on their normal schedule.

TL;DR: six months ago company B was "no longer competitive" and they survived. The companies are taking turns having the best tech. It's fine.