Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction • Hacker News Board

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#301

Post by KK7NIL » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 1:15 AM UTC

toephu2 wrote: post #132

rwmj wrote: post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

It doesn't goto nearly zero. TSMC has a large fab in Arizona and they are continuing to expand it. They also have a fab in Washington, and in Japan. [1] [1] https://www.tsmc.com/english/aboutTSMC/TSMC_Fabs

The fab in Washington is very old (notice it's still equipped for 8 inch wafers) and so pretty irrelevant to Nvidia's business.

I'm not quite sure what process they run there but I believe it was an acquisition 10+ years ago, not built from the ground up by them.

Edit: their Japan fab is also a mature node so not very relevant here. And their Arizona fab is a very very small portion of their volume and with far worse margin.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#302

Post by gadflyinyoureye » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 1:35 AM UTC

reppap wrote: post #268

agentcoops wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear your argument, but short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon. Of course I could easily be wrong, but regardless I think the most predictable cause for a drop in the NVIDIA price would be that the CHIPS act/recent decisions by the CCP leads a Chinese firm to bring to market a CUDA compatible and reliable GPU at a fraction of the cost. It shoul…

People will want more GPUs but will they be able to fund them? At what points does the venture capital and loans run out? People will not keep pouring hundreds of billions into this if the returns don't start coming.

Money will be interesting the next few years.

There is a real chance that the Japanese carry trade will close soon the BoJ seeing rates move up to 4%. This means liquidity will drain from the US markets back into Japan. On the US side there is going to be a lot of inflation between money printing, refund checks, amortization changes and a possible war footing. Who knows?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#303

Post by x-complexity » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 1:35 AM UTC

pvab3 wrote: post #278

zozbot234 wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We will run out of additional material to train on This sounds a bit silly. More training will generally result in better modeling, even for a fixed amount of genuine original data. At current model sizes, it's essentially impossible to overfit to the training data so there's no reason why we should just "stop".

I'm just talking about text generated by human beings. You can keep retraining with more parameters on the same corpus https://proceedings.mlr.press/v235/villalobos24a.html

> I'm just talking about text generated by human beings.

That in itself is a goalpost shift from

> > We will run out of additional material to train on

Where it is implied "additional material" === "all data, human + synthetic"

------

There's still some headroom left in the synthetic data playground, as cited in the paper linked:

https://proceedings.mlr.press/v235/villalobos24a.html ( https://openreview.net/pdf?id=ViZcgDQjyG )

"On the other hand, training on synthetic data has shown much promise in domains where model outputs are relatively easy to verify, such as mathematics, programming, and games (Yang et al., 2023; Liu et al., 2023; Haluptzok et al., 2023)."

With the caveat that translating this success outside of these domains is hit-or-miss:

"What is less clear is whether the usefulness of synthetic data will generalize to domains where output verification is more challenging, such as natural language."

The main bottleneck for this area of the woods will be (X := how many additional domains can be made easily verifiable). So long as (the rate of X) >> (training absorption rate), the road can be extended for a while longer.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#304

Post by jaimex2 » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 1:41 AM UTC

This kind of prediction is hard because it has a dependency on when will AI companies crash. The market would need to lose confidence in AI which should make data-centre creation stop and then impact nVidia.

There's a bet here on profitability and it needs to play out.

How long do investors normally wait to see if a bet on new technology is a winner? I imagine that's quite arbitrary?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#305

Post by bigbuppo » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 1:52 AM UTC

tuetuopay wrote: post #32

bigbuppo wrote: post #16

Since there's such an interdependence between nvidia and the other companies involed in AI to the point that if one fails they all fail, shouldn't the analysis focus on the weakest link in the AI circle jerk?

Nvidia is the biggest link, however, I'd wager OpenAI and the likes are big enough to make a significant dent in the mammoth. So yeah, this analysis is sort of a spherical cows in a vacuum situation. Still, it's interesting the probability is so high while ignoring real-world factors . I'd expect it to be much higher due to: - another adjacent company dipping - some earnings target not being met - china/taiwan - just…

Yeah, no signs that the AI craze is slowing down, other than all the stories of it not living up to the hype and creating more jobs rather than replacing people and not doing what it says on the tin and the various security issues and that whole they can't expand for the next decade because they need more power plants thing.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#306

Post by bigyabai » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 1:56 AM UTC

tracker1 wrote: post #273

agentcoops wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear your argument, but short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon. Of course I could easily be wrong, but regardless I think the most predictable cause for a drop in the NVIDIA price would be that the CHIPS act/recent decisions by the CCP leads a Chinese firm to bring to market a CUDA compatible and reliable GPU at a fraction of the cost. It shoul…

Doesn't even necessarily need to be CUDA compatible... there's OpenCL and Vulkan as well, and likely China will throw enough resources at the problem to bring various libraries into closer alignment to ease of use/development. I do think China is still 3-5 years from being really competitive, but still even if they hit 40-50% of NVidia, depending on pricing and energy costs, it could still make significant inroads wi…

> there's OpenCL and Vulkan as well

OpenCL is chronically undermaintained & undersupported, and Vulkan only covers a small subset of what CUDA does so far. Neither has the full support of the tech industry (though both are supported by Nvidia, ironically).

It feels like nobody in the industry wants to beat Nvidia badly enough, yet. Apple and AMD are trying to supplement raster hardware with inference silicon; both of them are afraid to implement a holistic compute architecture a-la CUDA. Intel is reinventing the wheel with OneAPI, Microsoft is doing the same with ONNX, Google ships generic software and withholds their bespoke hardware, and Meta is asleep at the wheel. All of them hate each other, none of them trust Khronos anymore, and the value of a CUDA replacement has ballooned to the point that greed might be their only motivator.

I've wanted a proper, industry-spanning CUDA competitor since high school. I'm beginning to realize it probably won't happen within my lifetime.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#307

Post by m3kw9 » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 2:01 AM UTC

10% given the info we have now. Or 10% given what info are likely to come in the future that satisfies the 10% prediction? Or are these 2 the same?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#308

Post by user3939382 » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 2:23 AM UTC

This is a market can stay irrational problem. Modern compute infrastructure from phones, 5G, data centers, LLMs have their energy economics exactly backwards which combined with plastic waste is causing a massive global economic distortion that will correct itself bc physics doesn’t care about the white house, Vanguard, TSMC or anyone else. How long we can borrow from the future and put stress on the poor to prop up this insanely wasteful system who can say.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#309

Post by ddxv » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 2:32 AM UTC

khalic wrote: post #17

rwmj wrote: post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

Idk the pro china side is getting more and more support, at this rate they’ll vote themselves into mainland

Where do you see the pro china side getting more and more support? As far as I can tell it's sharply swung towards maintaining independence in the past decade or two with single digit support of unification with the mainland.

https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963

https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202512.png

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#310

Post by davesque » Wed, Jan 21, 2026, 2:45 AM UTC

tombert wrote: post #282

It's entirely possible it will crash, but I also don't think it'll go bankrupt or anything. I don't typically buy stock to flip it right away; I have some Nvidia stock that I bought the day after ChatGPT was launched, and I bought a bit more when it was $90/share about a ~year ago. If it drops to $100, then I'll still be in the black, but even if it drops to $50, I'm not going to worry because I figure that I can jus…

> Nvidia has been around long enough and has enough market penetration in datacenters and gaming that I don't think it's going to go bust, and I figure that it will eventually appreciate again just due to inflation.

Shouldn't the same argument also apply to Intel?