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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#281

Post by Dylan16807 »

iancmceachern wrote: post #260
lazide wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily if you count capital costs vs operating costs/margins. Replacing cars every 3 years vs a couple % in efficiency is not an obvious trade off. Especially if you can do it in 5 years instead of 3.

You highlight the exact dilemma. Company A has taxis that are 5 percent less efficient and for the reasons you stated doesn't want to upgrade. Company B just bought new taxis, and they are undercutting company A by 5 percent while paying their drivers the same. Company A is no longer competitive.

The debt company B took on to buy those new taxis means they're no longer competitive either if they undercut by 5%.

The scenario doesn't add up.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#282

Post by tombert »

It's entirely possible it will crash, but I also don't think it'll go bankrupt or anything.

I don't typically buy stock to flip it right away; I have some Nvidia stock that I bought the day after ChatGPT was launched, and I bought a bit more when it was $90/share about a ~year ago. If it drops to $100, then I'll still be in the black, but even if it drops to $50, I'm not going to worry because I figure that I can just hold onto it until another upswing.

Nvidia has been around long enough and has enough market penetration in datacenters and gaming that I don't think it's going to go bust, and I figure that it will eventually appreciate again just due to inflation.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#283

Post by idiotsecant »

tombert wrote: post #282

It's entirely possible it will crash, but I also don't think it'll go bankrupt or anything. I don't typically buy stock to flip it right away; I have some Nvidia stock that I bought the day after ChatGPT was launched, and I bought a bit more when it was $90/share about a ~year ago. If it drops to $100, then I'll still be in the black, but even if it drops to $50, I'm not going to worry because I figure that I can jus…

If it appreciates just due to inflation you didn't actually make any money. Unless your investment beats inflation, you lose value.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#284

Post by onion2k »

notyourwork wrote: post #212
MrDarcy wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google, Amazon, and Microsoft aren’t profitable?

I assume the reference was AI use cases are not profitable. Those companies are subsidizing and OpenAI/grok are burning money.

Google, Amazon, and Microsoft do a lot of things that aren't profitable in themselves. There is no reason to believe a company will kill a product line just because it makes a loss. There are plenty of other reasons to keep it running.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#285

Post by tombert »

idiotsecant wrote: post #283
tombert wrote: post #282

It's entirely possible it will crash, but I also don't think it'll go bankrupt or anything. I don't typically buy stock to flip it right away; I have some Nvidia stock that I bought the day after ChatGPT was launched, and I bought a bit more when it was $90/share about a ~year ago. If it drops to $100, then I'll still be in the black, but even if it drops to $50, I'm not going to worry because I figure that I can jus…

If it appreciates just due to inflation you didn't actually make any money. Unless your investment beats inflation, you lose value.

I don't dispute that all. I'm just ok with that being the outcome; if it keeps up with inflation then it's still better than storing it in a bank, and the thing that would upset me more than "not gaining" would be "actively losing".

Now obviously, if it drops below from what I paid for it and then it takes inflation to catch up, then yeah, that's definitely "lost money", but that's just the risk of the stock market, especially with individual stocks. I also think that if it crashes, Nvidia might still have another surge eventually, even if it doesn't get back to its full glory.

I definitely would not buy new Nvidia stock at its current price though.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#286

Post by idiotsecant »

rwmj wrote: post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

China invading Taiwan makes zero sense, they just flex those muscles for domestic consumption. They will probably take over Taiwan, but they'll do it how modern major powers do anything: propaganda, influence campaigns, and soft power.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#287

Post by lossyalgo »

notyourwork wrote: post #212
MrDarcy wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google, Amazon, and Microsoft aren’t profitable?

I assume the reference was AI use cases are not profitable. Those companies are subsidizing and OpenAI/grok are burning money.

Yeah but OpenAI is adding ads this year for the free versions, which I'm guessing is most of their users. They are probably hedging on taking a big slice of Google's advertising monopoly-pie (which is why Google is also now all-in on forcing Gemini opt-out on every product they own, they can see the writing on the wall).

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#288

Post by bigyabai »

zozbot234 wrote: post #271
bigyabai wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very easy to envision. America needs chips, and Intel can't do most of this stuff.

Intel makes GPUs.

Intel's GPU designs make AMD look world-class by comparison. Outside of transcode applications, those Arc cards aren't putting up a fight.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#290

Post by lubujackson »

This is fun math to play with, but completely misses the point of how and why options are priced the way they are. Think of horse racing - when a horse is 1000 to 1 odds the odds of that horse winning are much, much lower. The odds are non-zero, but the oddsmakers are considering who the other side is and why they are buying that ticket.

Most options are actually used to hedge large positions and are rolled over well before the "due date". YOLOing calls and puts is a Robin Hood phenomenon and the odds of "fair pricing" are heavily affected by these big players, so using that data as some sort of price discovery is flawed from the get go.

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