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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#231

Post by Shocka1 »

NewCzech wrote: post #6

He doesn't really address his own question. He's answering the question "How should options be priced?" Sure, it's possible for a big crash in Nvidia just due to volatility. But in that case, the market as a whole would likely be affected. Whether Nvidia specifically takes a big dive depends much more on whether they continue to meet growth estimates than general volatility. If they miss earnings estimates in a meani…

I've been selling options for almost a decade now, including running trading algorithms, and was laughing a bit to myself because it was basically just the math in an everyday option chain. As you already know, anyone can look at the strike they are talking about, with the IV already cooked into it, on platforms like Think Or Swim or even Yahoo Finance. Some of the stuff can be pretty useful though in backtesting and exploration.

All that aside, I'm impressed it made it to the HN front page.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#232

Post by svnt »

recursive wrote: post #190
Loudergood wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market is full of people trying to anticipate how other people are going to react and exploit that by getting there first. There's a layer aimed at forecasting what that layer is going to do as well. It's guesswork all the way down.

Personally, I try to predict how others are going to predict that yet others will react.

[flagged]

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#233

Post by pmarin »

blackoil wrote: post #127
nebula8804 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thats just buying China more time until they can get their chip manufacturing to at least a similar ballpark. Then Taiwan has no cards left to play. China can cripple TSMC depriving the west of chips while they continue onwards.

"buying China more time". China has no time-pressure to attack immediately, but all the upside right now of pretending to a stable, sensible world leader. Treaty with Taiwan will keep the ego of One China, prevent it from naval blockade by Taiwanese territories and will remove one of the major territorial issues raised against it.

I don't think is about China, it's more about Winnie the Pooh's legacy.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#234

Post by hibikir »

iancmceachern wrote: post #188
bob1029 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Margins are typically not so razor thin that you cannot operate with technology from one generation ago. 15 vs 17 mpg is going to add up over time, but for a taxi company it's probably not a lethal situation to be in.

Tell that to the airline industry

And yet they aren't running planes and engines all from 2023 or beyond: See the MD-11 that crashed in Louisville: Nobody has made a new MD-11 in over 20 years. Planes move to less competitive routes, change carriers, and eventually might even stop carrying people and switch to cargo, but the plane itself doesn't get to have zero value when the new one comes out. An airline will want to replace their planes, but a new plane isn't fully amortized in a year or three: It still has value for quite a while

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#235

Post by SequoiaHope »

fooker wrote: post #146
mbrumlow wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not that they don’t work. It’s how businesses handle hardware. I worked at a few data centers on and off in my career. I got lots of hardware for free or on the cheap simply because the hardware was considered “EOL” after about 3 years, often when support contracts with the vendor ends. There are a few things to consider. Hardware that ages produce more errors, and those errors cost, one way or another. Rack spa…

I’ll be so happy to buy a EOL H100! But no, there’s none to be found, it is a 4 year, two generations old machine at this point and you can’t buy one used at a rate cheaper than new.

There’s plenty on eBay? But at the end of your comment you say “a rate cheaper than new” so maybe you mean you’d love to buy a discounted one. But they do seem to be available used.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#236

Post by unsupp0rted »

iLoveOncall wrote: post #160
agentcoops wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear your argument, but short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon. Of course I could easily be wrong, but regardless I think the most predictable cause for a drop in the NVIDIA price would be that the CHIPS act/recent decisions by the CCP leads a Chinese firm to bring to market a CUDA compatible and reliable GPU at a fraction of the cost. It shoul…

> short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon Or, you know, when LLMs don't pay off.

Even if LLMs didn't advance at all from this point onward, there's still loads of productive work that could be optimized / fully automated by them, at no worse output quality than the low-skilled humans we're currently throwing at that work.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#237

Post by notepad0x90 »

Everyone is saying data center build outs are the main thing to look out for. But those data centers with all those gpus will need to replace those gpus right? Nvidia will come up with better, faster, more efficient gpus.

LLM use age won't crash either, it might decline or taper off but it's here to stay.

My concern is better models that won't need a whole of GPU, or China comping up with their own foundry and GPUs that compete. There is also the strategy issue, can Nvidia's leadership think global enough? will they start pursuing data centers in europe, latam, asia? can they make gpus cheap enough to compete in those regions?

The way things are, lots of countries want this tech local, but they can't deny the demand either.

Europe for example might not want anything to do with American AI companies, but they still need GPUs for their own models. But can Nvidia rebrand itself as a not-so-american-but-also-american company? Like Coca Cola for example. i.e.: not just operate in europe but have an HQ in europe that has half their execs working from there, and the rest from california. Or perhaps asia is better (doubt)? either way, they can't live off of US demand forever, or ignore geopolitics.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#238

Post by SchemaLoad »

unsupp0rted wrote: post #236
iLoveOncall wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon Or, you know, when LLMs don't pay off.

Even if LLMs didn't advance at all from this point onward, there's still loads of productive work that could be optimized / fully automated by them, at no worse output quality than the low-skilled humans we're currently throwing at that work.

How much of the current usage is productive work that's worth paying for vs personal usage / spam that would just drop off after usage charges come in? I imagine flooding youtube and instagram with slop videos would reduce if users had to pay fair prices to use the models.

The companies might also downgrade the quality of the models to make it more viable to provide as an ad supported service which would again reduce utilisation.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#239

Post by gpderetta »

Loudergood wrote: post #180
readthenotes1 wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also tanked to ~$90 when Trump announced tariffs on all goods for Taiwan except semiconductors. I don't know if that's non-rational, or if people can't be expected to read the second sentence of an announcement before panicking.

The market is full of people trying to anticipate how other people are going to react and exploit that by getting there first. There's a layer aimed at forecasting what that layer is going to do as well. It's guesswork all the way down.

Keynesian beauty contest.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#240

Post by stingraycharles »

iLoveOncall wrote: post #160
agentcoops wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear your argument, but short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon. Of course I could easily be wrong, but regardless I think the most predictable cause for a drop in the NVIDIA price would be that the CHIPS act/recent decisions by the CCP leads a Chinese firm to bring to market a CUDA compatible and reliable GPU at a fraction of the cost. It shoul…

> short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon Or, you know, when LLMs don't pay off.

Exactly, the current spend on LLMs is based on extremely high expectations and the vendors operating at a loss. It’s very reasonable to assume that those expectations will not be met, and spending will slow down as well.

Nvidia’s valuation is based on the current trend continuing and even increasing, which I consider unlikely in the long term.

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