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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#151

Post by kqr »

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

Fundamental analysis is great! But I have trouble answering concrete questions of probability with it.

How do you use fundamental analysis to assign a probability to Nvidia closing under $100 this year, and what probability do you assign to that outcome?

I'd love to hear your reasoning around specifics to get better at it.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#152

Post by whaleofatw2022 »

Yizahi wrote: post #130
Melatonic wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the opposite actually - most GPU used for mining are run at a consistent temp and load which is good for long term wear. Peaky loads where the GPU goes from cold to hot and back leads to more degradation because of changes in thermal expansion. This has been known for some time now.

That is commonly repeated idea, but it doesn't take into account countless token farms which are smaller than a datacenter. Basically anything from a single MB with 8 cards to a small shed with rigs, all of which tend to disregard common engineering practices and run hardware into a ground to maximize output until next police raid or difficulty bump. Plenty of photos in the internet of crappy rigs like that, and no o…

Let's also not forget the set of miners that either overclock or dont really care about long term in how they set up thermals

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#154

Post by coryrc »

agentcoops wrote: post #128
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I hear your argument, but short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon. Of course I could easily be wrong, but regardless I think the most predictable cause for a drop in the NVIDIA price would be that the CHIPS act/recent decisions by the CCP leads a Chinese firm to bring to market a CUDA compatible and reliable GPU at a fraction of the cost. It shoul…

Not that locked out: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/31/160-million-export-controlle...

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#155

Post by coryrc »

Yizahi wrote: post #130
Melatonic wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the opposite actually - most GPU used for mining are run at a consistent temp and load which is good for long term wear. Peaky loads where the GPU goes from cold to hot and back leads to more degradation because of changes in thermal expansion. This has been known for some time now.

That is commonly repeated idea, but it doesn't take into account countless token farms which are smaller than a datacenter. Basically anything from a single MB with 8 cards to a small shed with rigs, all of which tend to disregard common engineering practices and run hardware into a ground to maximize output until next police raid or difficulty bump. Plenty of photos in the internet of crappy rigs like that, and no o…

Specifically, we expect a halving of lifetime per 10K increase in temperature.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#156

Post by alecco »

rwmj wrote: post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

I think they are already hedging for Taiwan. 1. They just pseudo-acquired Groq, fully made in USA (GlobalFoundries) and with a diversified supply chain. 2. And they just announced they will be re-introducing RTX 3090 made in Korea (Samsung). 3. And they plan to produce chips in Intel's new US fabs soon.

I think the bigger problems of the AI bubble are energy and that it's gaining a terrible reputation for being the excuse for mass layoffs while suffocating the Internet with slop/brainrot content. All while depending on government funding to grow.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#157

Post by coryrc »

mikkupikku wrote: post #149
dylan604 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>offset buying a new one every one to three years? Isn't that precisely how leasing works? Also, don't companies prefer not to own hardware for tax purposes? I've worked for several places where they leased compute equipment with upgrades coming at the end of each lease.

Who wants to buy GPUs that were redlined for three years in a data center? Maybe there's a market for those, but most people already seem wary of lightly used GPUs from other consumers, let alone GPUs that were burning in a crypto farm or AI data center for years.

Depends on the price, of course. I'm wary of paying 50% of new for something run hard 3 years. Seems an NVIDIA H100 is going for $20k+ on EBay. I'm not taking that risk.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#158

Post by [deleted] »

coryrc wrote: post #154
agentcoops wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear your argument, but short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon. Of course I could easily be wrong, but regardless I think the most predictable cause for a drop in the NVIDIA price would be that the CHIPS act/recent decisions by the CCP leads a Chinese firm to bring to market a CUDA compatible and reliable GPU at a fraction of the cost. It shoul…

Not that locked out: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/31/160-million-export-controlle...

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#160

Post by iLoveOncall »

agentcoops wrote: post #128
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I hear your argument, but short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon. Of course I could easily be wrong, but regardless I think the most predictable cause for a drop in the NVIDIA price would be that the CHIPS act/recent decisions by the CCP leads a Chinese firm to bring to market a CUDA compatible and reliable GPU at a fraction of the cost. It shoul…

> short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon

Or, you know, when LLMs don't pay off.

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