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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#421

Post by nomilk »

I find predication markets the most accurate form of 'news'. For example, if I want to understand if a claim (e.g. a news headline) has merit, I check the prediction market and easily dismiss/confirm it. Recently it has been useful to understand the situation in Iran. It has also informed my travel decisions to other countries based on geopolitical dangers.

Are prediction markets perfect? Of course not. But the difference is in prediction markets someone has something to lose (real money), whereas legacy news values sensationalism over accuracy and sobriety.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#422

Post by hypeatei »

alphazard wrote: post #409

The headline is part of a widespread trend of the word "gambling" being used as synonymous with "betting". This new use isn't constructive, as it makes it difficult to talk about either precisely. Betting (risking something known for a payout which is uncertain), is ubiquitous in life, and really any game where the participants don't have perfect information. You are betting even if you don't realize it. You can't op…

> Anytime people criticize betting, it looks to me like some kind of utopian scheme

This is how I feel, too. Life is all about risk management and a life where you take no risk is one where you have nothing. People make bets all the time: areas they move to, people they ask out, jobs they take, what foods they eat, etc. which is clearly different than going to the casino and putting it all on red.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#423

Post by II2II »

alphazard wrote: post #409

The headline is part of a widespread trend of the word "gambling" being used as synonymous with "betting". This new use isn't constructive, as it makes it difficult to talk about either precisely. Betting (risking something known for a payout which is uncertain), is ubiquitous in life, and really any game where the participants don't have perfect information. You are betting even if you don't realize it. You can't op…

> Gambling refers to taking on risk for the feeling it brings.

Is there much of a difference when it comes to placing bets on the news?

To play off the article's opening example: investing in mineral exploration in Greenland, with an American invasion opening up opportunities for resource extraction, would be taking a risk with an unknown payout due to imperfect information. That is to say, it is taking a risk to build a business. A business where the payout may exceed what is going in. Betting on the news is just an exchange of money, with the intermediary taking a cut. Risks are being taken, but no value is being created. It is all about emotional involvement.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#424

Post by blurbleblurble »

nomilk wrote: post #421

I find predication markets the most accurate form of 'news'. For example, if I want to understand if a claim (e.g. a news headline) has merit, I check the prediction market and easily dismiss/confirm it. Recently it has been useful to understand the situation in Iran. It has also informed my travel decisions to other countries based on geopolitical dangers. Are prediction markets perfect? Of course not. But the diffe…

The realer the money, the more incentive there is to "make it so".

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#425

Post by itintheory »

tpm wrote: post #91
Buttons840 wrote: post #65

This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society. But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it. Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably. If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last elec…

> But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? Long time ago I was working for a betting company and we had a product where virtual (horses, dogs, bikes, cars) were racing in a virtual environment. This was displayed on a TV in physical branches and on the website, along with completely transparent information that it is all random, source of randomness was even so…

Your company was taking bets on https://www.online-stopwatch.com/horse-race/ ?

Unrelated - that site is great. I looked into membership, but $6/month seems steep.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#426

Post by sarky-litso »

entropyneur wrote: post #285
thecupisblue wrote: post #280

Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…

Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.

Have you watched sports recently? Gambling has always had a negative effect on the perceived fairness but once that effect becomes a core part of the way the sport is monetized it gets even worse for everyone involved. Watching playoff games last weekend either Draft Kings or Fan Duel showed an ad where a single person in a crowded bar is cheering wildly by themselves while looking at their parlay bet or whatever on their phone - this isolation of the communal experience alone is a definitely a negative effect but I could go on...

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#428

Post by volkk »

nomilk wrote: post #421

I find predication markets the most accurate form of 'news'. For example, if I want to understand if a claim (e.g. a news headline) has merit, I check the prediction market and easily dismiss/confirm it. Recently it has been useful to understand the situation in Iran. It has also informed my travel decisions to other countries based on geopolitical dangers. Are prediction markets perfect? Of course not. But the diffe…

i don't know much about prediction markets aside from just a very high level view but i bumped into a thread on twitter that talks about how game-able they are as well if you have a decent chunk of money. e.g i throw 100k into "yes" and now bots/people think some insider has real info, and more shares get thrown into "yes" and then last minute the bot undoes the trade and throws a bunch of money into "no" and no resolves and they made a lot more money.

again, i don't know enough about prediction markets, but this feels like i can't really trust lower liquidity "predictions" (i guess very similar to penny stocks).

One can argue that main news headline predictions will have so much volume that it's impossible to rig it this way, but what's stopping state actors from manipulation?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#429

Post by arretevad »

alphazard wrote: post #409

The headline is part of a widespread trend of the word "gambling" being used as synonymous with "betting". This new use isn't constructive, as it makes it difficult to talk about either precisely. Betting (risking something known for a payout which is uncertain), is ubiquitous in life, and really any game where the participants don't have perfect information. You are betting even if you don't realize it. You can't op…

I think by your own definition the headline is warranted in its use of gambling. The act of betting on predictions is in service of “being right” ostensibly. But is really just about the monetary reward. I don’t see betting on predictions serving any other purpose. Other risks in life have other purpose, in which the risk is accepted because of the reward of the other purpose. Gambling is risk without any other sort of side reward or effect.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#430

Post by sebastiennight »

_heimdall wrote: post #332
evandijk70 wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say that gambling with skill component is still gambling. For example, in blackjack you can limit your losses by following a basic strategy, which is a 2x2 matrix with rows containing the value of your hand and columns containing the open dealer card. If you can obtain an edge through a skill component (card counting in blackjack), some people wouldn't call this gambling anymore, but I would still call it gam…

Does this not boil down to the distinction being one's intent? I play poker occasionally, for example, and my primary goal is to win money not to take risk. Does that make it meet your definition of investing rather than gambling?

Well you're not committing the money to purchase an asset that will generate returns, so no, it's not "investing".

It would be more accurate to say you're working, really: spending time and effort to earn money. Though the "work" here, assuming you're a skilled poker player sitting with lesser-skilled marks, is similar to a crypto bro performing a rug pull. You're enabling other participants to gamble in the hope of an uncertain win, while they actually are pretty much guaranteed to lose in a zero-sum game where the house will always earn its keep.

One could say that if everybody else at the table is gambling and you're working, it's still gambling. Lunch is lunch, whether you're the customer, the chef, or the lamb.

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