Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction • Hacker News Board

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#71

Post by munk-a » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:26 PM UTC

nospice wrote: post #58

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

> My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Their stock trajectory started with one boom (cryptocurrencies) and then seamlessly progressed to another (AI). You're basically looking at a decade of "number goes up". So yeah, it will probably come down eventually (or the inflation will catch up), but it's a poor argument for betting against them right now. Meanwhile, the…

That's the rub - it's clearly overvalued and will readjust... the question is when. If you can figure out when precisely then you've won the lottery, for everyone else it's a game of chicken where for "a while" money that you put into it will have a good return. Everyone would love if that lasted forever so there is a strong momentum preventing that market correction.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#72

Post by 10xDev » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:27 PM UTC

I mean common sense reasoning tells me that if OpenAI has decided to turn into an ad business, the actual return expected from investing into compute isn't going to be nearly as great as advertised.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#73

Post by baal80spam » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:28 PM UTC

immibis wrote: post #25

It's easy to predict that a bubble will pop, but there's a variance in the timing of approximately half a human lifetime, and if you don't guess that correctly, you throw away yours. Everything that can't go on forever will eventually stop. But when?

Well put and clearly explains why "timing the market" is never a good plan.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#74

Post by weirdmantis69 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC

It's forward looking P/E is 24-26. That doesn't seem like a huge crash is coming. It could come down a bit but they print money. They also have potential car market and robots coming in.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#75

Post by munk-a » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC

linkregister wrote: post #66

mnky9800n wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

The common factoid raised in financial reports is GPUs used in model training will lose thermal insulation due to their high utilization. The GPUs ostensibly fail. I have heard anecdotal reports of GPUs used for cryptocurrency mining having similar wear patterns. I have not seen hard data, so this could be an oft-repeated, but false fact.

I can't confirm that fact - but it's important to acknowledge that consumer usage is very different from the high continuous utilization in mining and training. It is credulous that the wear on cards under such extreme usage is as high as reported considering that consumers may use their cards at peak 5% of waking hours and the wear drop off is only about 3x if it is used near 100% - that is a believable scale for endurance loss.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#76

Post by seawsurf » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC

NewCzech wrote: post #6

He doesn't really address his own question. He's answering the question "How should options be priced?" Sure, it's possible for a big crash in Nvidia just due to volatility. But in that case, the market as a whole would likely be affected. Whether Nvidia specifically takes a big dive depends much more on whether they continue to meet growth estimates than general volatility. If they miss earnings estimates in a meani…

Indeed, the market as a whole would be affected. But is not NVIDIA more of a software company than a hardware one? This bugs the shit out of me.

They are maintaining this astronomical growth through data centers margins from the design of their chips and all of that started from graphics related to video games.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#77

Post by savorypiano » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC

mnky9800n wrote: post #53

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

You aren't trying to support ad-based demand like OpenAI is.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#78

Post by wordpad » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC

mikkupikku wrote: post #62

iancmceachern wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're no longer energy competitive. I.e. the amount of power per compute exceeds what is available now. It's like if your taxi company bought taxis that were more fuel efficient every year.

If a taxi company did that every year, they'd be losing a lot of money. Of course new cars and cards are cheaper to operate than old ones, but is that difference enough to offset buying a new one every one to three years?

If your competitor refreshes their cards and you dont, they will win on margin.

You kind of have to.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#79

Post by r_lee » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:31 PM UTC

They're enjoying a massive demand for GPUs due to AI blowing up, at a time when there isn't much competition, yet the technology is already pleateauing, with similar offerings from AMD, not to mention proven training & inference chips from Google & AWS, plus the Chinese national strategy of prioritizing domestic chips

The only way the stock could remain at its current price or grow (which is why you'd hold it) is if demand would just keep going up (with the same lifecycle as current GPUs) and that there would be no competition, which the latter to me us just never going to be a thing.

Investors are convinced that Nvidia can maintain its lead because they have the "software" side, I.e. CUDA, which to me is so ridiculous, as if with the kind of capital that's being deployed into these datacenters, you couldn't fit your models into other software stacks by hiring people....

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#80

Post by zozbot234 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC

linkregister wrote: post #66

mnky9800n wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

The common factoid raised in financial reports is GPUs used in model training will lose thermal insulation due to their high utilization. The GPUs ostensibly fail. I have heard anecdotal reports of GPUs used for cryptocurrency mining having similar wear patterns. I have not seen hard data, so this could be an oft-repeated, but false fact.

> I have heard anecdotal reports of GPUs used for cryptocurrency mining having similar wear patterns.

If this was anywhere close to a common failure mode, I'm pretty sure we'd know that already given how crypto mining GPUs were usually ran to the max in makeshift settings with woefully inadequate cooling and environmental control. The overwhelming anecdotal evidence from people who have bought them is that even a "worn" crypto GPU is absolutely fine.