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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#131

Post by BanAntiVaxxers »

0xy wrote: post #113
bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

Those same economists warning about tariffs also warned it would lead to runaway skyrocketing inflation and quote "the mother of all recessions" [1] [2] [3], which objectively did not happen. The same economists were nowhere to be seen when prices doubled 2020-24 and the official inflation numbers were 13%. Once again proving that economists are engaged in mere astrology. You also frame the argument that the last adm…

There are some selection bias here, these are the economists whose voices got heard.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#132

Post by dzink »

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

The election is a state at a moment in time. Before the election, to affect the state, propaganda machines target whatever is lower on the maslow hierarchy of needs for the voters - pesky tariffs are a tiny issue compared to that boogeyman that wants to target your children. Someone’s freedom is a pesky thing compared to that immigrant boogeyman going after your retirement savings. Once people have voted because they are scared for their life savings and their children, the elected can do whatever they want and target whomever they want with impunity for several years. Especially if they start building their own militia and threatening the judiciary.

This authoritarian model has proven very successful for anyone Putin and his aparatus has installed anywhere. Now it may be franchised even further.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#134

Post by TimorousBestie »

shevy-java wrote: post #26

I actually think Trump is going to lose big soon. One turning point was the death of Renee Good. Past this point the ICE stormtroopers may kill anyone else too, no matter who that is - just step in front of a car and shoot when the car moves. For serious penalty, all those TechBro cronies need to have all assets seized. They are imcompatible with democracy.

There’s no solidarity movement coalescing around Good’s death. When the local police chief invoked “say her name” in a public statement on it, it caused a bunch of acrimony and resentment instead.

I think Americans past the point where individual instances of police violence can shock us into taking political action (which is extremely risky in any case). It’s going to take kilodeath crimes, I imagine.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#135

Post by drstewart »

alex_suzuki wrote: post #129
drstewart wrote: post #88

Has this institute done an analysis of the VAT own goal by Germany? What percentage is paid by EU Germans?

Value added tax, to the best of my knowledge, is always paid by the end customer/consumer. Is somebody claiming otherwise?

So it's a huge German own goal? And they knew it?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#136

Post by maccard »

wolvoleo wrote: post #119
bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

I'm not American but I don't think tariffs were mentioned in Trump's campaign? It was more the 'stick it to the liberals' and 'drain the swamp' stuff. He only started that tariff stuff when he took office. Edit: Clearly I was not following things well enough, sorry for the wrong information.

He also ran as the “no war” president and has so far attempted to start two, and is likely to be involved in a third.

Besides, he started the tariff nonsense in his first term - it even has its own Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_tr...

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#137

Post by dfee »

soared wrote: post #59
dfee wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

even if we take the number presented as fact (i'm not sure we should), the articles claim is that: > "Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden-the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers." so yeah, the exporter does pay some burden. it's not binary. indeed, tariff exports can be designed in a way to dial either direction. certainly, we could dial foreign exporters burden to 0% – and we could d…

This is a whole lot of words with no meaning. Yes 4% is a number that can go up or down, cool? 4% is absolutely meaningless compared to to what was shouted loudly about how other countries would be paying these. Does it change who customers buy food from? No, because everyone increases their prices regardless of if they’re impacted by tariffs or not. The 2018 washing machine tariffs are a clear cut example of why tar…

It wasn't a whole lot of words with no meaning, it was a response to the parent comment.

> Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??

My response was that it's not binary, but a mixed case. And, furthermore, from the perspective of an individual exporter, their export profile may change if goods and services are purchased from a different exporter.

E.g. if the same good may be cheaper without a 25% tariff, then you'd expect the incentive to pay less to have some effect.

The US Treasury would still get money, but the exporting country might change.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#138

Post by senorrib »

nosianu wrote: post #47
senorrib wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it isn’t that simple. Who bears the most weight depends on the elasticity of the curve on each side. This is confirming demand is more inelastic, which causes it to bear the burden, but could have been the other way around.

What does elasticity matter if you no longer make a profit? Isn't the only thing that could matter - apart from strategic considerations of financing a loss for a time - if the margins are big enough? Who wants to pay for people to take their products below the full cost of making them, apart from some investor-financed hype startups?

1) You’re assuming there’s no profit to be made 2) Profit is implicitly embedded in the elasticity curve

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#139

Post by the_gipsy »

Archelaos wrote: post #85

If customs duties act like a domestic tax, wouldn't that mean that they should initially be considered neutral? They would then be another type of consumption tax. Any assessment would have to be made in the context of the tax system as a whole. Are consumption taxes too high overall? Too low? Or just right? Who pays the taxes? Is that fair? Who and what are the taxes collected spent on? Etc.

That's the neat part, you don't.

Neat as in fantastic - it literally can't get any better - for the oligarchs. Tax the poor, and tell them we're collecting money for them, from the foreigners.

Raise and lower the rates willy-nilly, no need to really justify why you're squeezing who.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#140

Post by jacquesm »

Ladies & Gentlemen, the President of the United States of Amerca:

“Dear Jonas: Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a “right of ownership” anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also. I have done more for NATO than any other person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States. The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT”

Given that, should it be any surprise at all that Trump has been gaslighting America on who pays for his tariffs?

And guess what mechanism he's brought to bear on the countries that do not see things his way when it comes to Greenland?

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