If you look at the decline in the Chinese producer price index, it doesn't seem like that is accurate.
That declined more
in 2023 110.6->107.9
and 2024 107.9->105.4
than 2025 105.4->103.6
Looks like around ~2% a year
American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
81–90 of 814 posts
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
I remember the justification for Obama Care was by calling it a 'type of tax'. Which actually was the reason to negate the rights argument at the time, they were using to cancel it. The government is allowed to create 'taxes', and since it was a 'type of tax', it is allowed.
I think the opposition wanted to toss the entire ACA system calling it a tax. However, SCOTUS took a more piecemeal approach than the opposition wished and removed the bit they felt was a tax and left the ACA unaffected generally.
SCOTUS has been reasoning backward from their blatant partisanship for a couple decades now. It used to have a bit of randomness with some justices defecting with "reasoned arguments", but that's basically over now.
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
I suspect tens of millions of Americans believe whatever they are told by their trusted "news" source. My only basis is anecdotal though, a dozen or so "maga/trump no matter what" family members and people I grew up with are mostly believing the tariffs are something other countries are paying the US.
FOX News, after their scandal with Dominion, should have been broken down or even shutdown. They deliberately disinformed the public, there is blatant evidence that the news anchors were aware that they were lying. Not just bending facts a little or opining, but knowingly and purposefully lying. The pretext of freedom of expression, and more narrowly freedom of press should not *continue* to apply to businesses/indiv…
Can you stretch your imagination to a scenario in which a hostile administration, eager to shut down critical reporting, might declare that various outlets are engaging in fake news and must thus be shut down? Let's be glad a precedent wasn't set.
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#84Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??
It doesn’t help that the person who imposed these tariffs was indeed claiming the cost would be borne by foreign countries, and the political party in power is repeating the claim ad nauseam on every channel imaginable. It’s a misleading claim, but OTOH the point of making imports more expensive for Americans is to push them to prefer US made products, and if that happens and imports go down then at some level it’s true that tariffs cost other countries. The biggest most important question is whether that’s actually happening - whether US consumers are switching to US-made brands - whether the US even makes alternatives to most of the imports we’re now taxing - whether demand for imports is dropping - or whether the politicians are just collecting a lot more tax money and raising the cost of living.
One big problem with arguing about this is that it will take many years for the effects of the tariffs to settle. If there’s new opportunity for local competition of goods that we’ve been importing, new companies can’t form and meet that demand over night, it will take longer than the president has to see that succeed, which certainly hasn’t stopped him from claiming it already has.
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#85If customs duties act like a domestic tax, wouldn't that mean that they should initially be considered neutral? They would then be another type of consumption tax. Any assessment would have to be made in the context of the tax system as a whole. Are consumption taxes too high overall? Too low? Or just right? Who pays the taxes? Is that fair? Who and what are the taxes collected spent on? Etc.
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#86Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??
There's been this phrase 'passing costs off to the consumer' that I've heard since I was a kid, used as some kind of indictment against companies raising prices when their costs go up. Even as a kid I was confused. Where else is the money going to come from?
I'm confused how you could be confused. Obviously the company that's passing off their costs to the consumer?
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#87Trump has floated the idea of eliminating federal income tax completely, which would balance things out. I think I’d rather pay taxes in the form of tariffs than through income tax. The tariffs can help protect jobs from being outsourced, which has been a big issue over the last several decades. With everyone talking about out AI coming for our jobs, having more options for employment seems like a good thing. I suppo…
US federal income tax raises vastly more revenue than tariffs ever have. Eliminating income tax would require tariffs at levels high enough to dramatically raise consumer prices and would certainly trigger retaliation.
Also, reduced competition from China does not imply higher wages unless labor has bargaining power and firms pass gains to workers. Historically it has been passed to shareholders not workers.
Finally, tariffs mainly protect manufacturing jobs. AI threatens white-collar and service work
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#88Has this institute done an analysis of the VAT own goal by Germany? What percentage is paid by EU Germans?
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#89Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??
No, it isn’t that simple. Who bears the most weight depends on the elasticity of the curve on each side. This is confirming demand is more inelastic, which causes it to bear the burden, but could have been the other way around.
There's a weird recursion here though.
I wonder what supply and demand curves look like if you keep telling people that the increased costs will be paid by foreigners and not them?
I assume it has an impact eventually but it must dampen the speed of response if people believe that.
Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
#90> Event studies around discrete tariff shocks on Brazil (50%) and India (25–50%) confirm: export prices did not decline. Trade volumes collapsed instead. What if that was the intended result?
Isn't that exactly the point of tariffs? To decrease import volumes so local industry can fill the gap and compete?