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The recurring dream of replacing developers

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Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#221

Post by austhrow743 »

jasonjmcghee wrote: post #90
fn-mote wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is too cryptic. Be clearer what you mean. Ponzi schemes?

Many companies aren't selling anything special or are just selling an "idea". Like liquid death sells water for a strangely high amount of money - entirely sales / marketing. International Star Registry gives you a piece of paper and a row in a database that says you own a star. Many luxury things are just because it's sold by that luxury brand. They are "worth" that amount of money for the status of other people kno…

By this logic you should just be able to list anything for an above average price and have people buy it as a status symbol.

Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#222

Post by fenwick67 »

apsurd wrote: post #216
fenwick67 wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The honest truth is it can go either way, really. Just ask all the sign-painters and portrait artists how their career is going

But sign painting isn't programming? The comment is insightful and talks specifically of low and no code options creating more need for developers. Great point. has nothing to do with non programming jobs.

what is special about programming jobs that makes them permanently immune from the high skilled workers being in low demand

Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#223

Post by blhack »

Consider what the rise of things like shopify, squarespace, etc. did for developers.

In 2001, you needed an entire development team if you wanted to have an online business. Having an online business was a complicated, niche thing.

Now, because it has gotten substantially easier, there are thousands of times as many (probably millions of times) online stores, and many of them employ some sort of developer (usually on a retainer) to do work for them. Those consultants probably make more than the devs of 2001 did, too.

Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#224

Post by servo_sausage »

Tade0 wrote: post #92
strict9 wrote: post #44

As I have heard from mid level managers and C suite types across a few dev jobs. Staff are the largest expense and the technology department is the largest cost center. I disagree because Sales couldn't exist with a product but that's a lost point. This is why those same mid level managers and C suite people are salivating over AI and mentioning it in every press release. The reality is that costs are being reduced b…

> The reality is that costs are being reduced by replacing US teams with offshore teams. Hailing from an outsourcing destination I need to ask: to where specifically? We've been laid off all the same. Me and my team spent the second half of 2025 working half time because that's the proposition we were given. What is this fabled place with an apparent abundance of highly skilled developers? India? They don't make on a…

At a very large company at the momen: One of the things I've noticed is as translation has improved, C level preferences and political considerations have made a much bigger impact.

So we will reduce headcount in some countries because of things like (perceived) working culture, and increase based on the need to gain goodwill or fulfil contracts from customers.

This can also mean that the type of work outsources can change pretty quickly. We are getting rid of most of the "developers" in India, because places like Vietnam and eastern Europe are now less limited by language, and are much better to work with. At the same time we are inventing and outsourcing other activities to India because of a desire to sell in their market.

Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#225

Post by oxag3n »

In 00s, Rational Rose UML was a mandatory course in my Uni undergrad program.

At that time I had a chat with a small startup CEO who was sure that he'll fire all those pesky programmers who think they are "smart" because they can code. He pointed me to a code generated by Rational Rose for his diagram, and told that only methods should be implemented, which also will be possible soon, the hardest part is to model the system.

Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#226

Post by yk09123 »

enos_feedler wrote: post #85
zby wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Classic Jevons Paradox - when something gets cheaper the market for it grows. The unit cost shrinks but the number of units bought grows more than this shrinkage.

Of course that is true. The nuance here is that software isn’t just getting cheaper but the activity to build it is changing. Instead of writing lines of code you are writing requirements. That shifts who can do the job. The customer might be able to do it themselves. This removes a market, not grows one. I am not saying the market will collapse just be careful applying a blunt theory to such a profound technological…

The nuance here is that AI cant do what you think it can.

AI can code because the user of AI can code.

Debbie from accounting doesn't have a clue what an int is

Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#227

Post by kiba »

Retric wrote: post #145
groundzeros2015 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also the percentage of adults working has been dropping for a while. There are lots of negative reasons for this that aren’t efficiency. Aging demographics. Poor education. Increasing complexity leaves people behind.

Efficiency is why things continue to work as fewer people work. Social programs, bank account, etc are just an abstraction you need a surplus or the only thing that changes is who starves.

Social programs often compensate for massive distortion in the economy. For example, SNAP benefits both the poor and the businesses where SNAP funds is spent on, but that's because a lot of unearned income goes to landowners, while preventing people from employing laborers and starting businesses. SNAP merely ameliorate a situation that shouldn't had arise in the first place.

So, yes, reasons other than efficiency explain why people aren't working, as well why there are still poor people.

Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#229

Post by layer8 »

felipeerias wrote: post #193
xnx wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Machinery made farmers more efficient and now there are more farmers than ever.

If AI tools make expert developers a lot more productive on large software projects, while empowering non-developers to create their own little programs and automations, I am not sure how that would increase the number of people with “software developer” as their full-time job.

It happened with tools like Excel, for example, which matches your description of empowering non-developers. It happens with non-developers setting up a CMS and then, when hitting the limits of what works out of the box, hiring or commissioning developers to add more complex functions and integrations. Barring AGI, there will always be limitations, and hitting them induces the desire to go beyond.

Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#230

Post by rudedogg »

MontyCarloHall wrote: post #22

It's not so much about replacing developers, but rather increasing the level of abstraction developers can work at, to allow them to work on more complex problems. The first electronic computers were programmed by manually re-wiring their circuits. Going from that to being able to encode machine instructions on punchcards did not replace developers. Nor did going from raw machine instructions to assembly code. Nor di…

> increasing the level of abstraction developers can work at

Something is lost each step of the abstraction ladder we climb. And the latest rung uses natural language which introduces a lot of imprecision/slop, in a way that prior abstractions did not. And, this new technology providing the new abstraction is non-deterministic on top of that.

There's also the quality issue of the output you do get.

I don't think the analogy of the assembly -> C transition people like to use holds water – there are some similarities but LLMs have a lot of downsides.

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