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Boeing knew of flaw in part linked to UPS plane crash, NTSB report says

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Re: Boeing knew of flaw in part linked to UPS plane crash, NTSB report says

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I owned a machine shop, and I'm the founder of a mid sized CNC gear factory. I think I know my way around bearings, lubrication, press fits and other such bits & pieces. As for the rest of your comment: What a load of tripe. I'm doing the exact opposite of what you claim. I am just taking the bits of evidence already available and rejecting root causes that would require those bits of evidence to not exist, which is…

>I owned a machine shop, and I'm the founder of a mid sized CNC gear factory. I think I know my way around bearings, lubrication, press fits and other such bits & pieces.

Then you have no excuse for having such a nuance free opinion for you must know things are often not obvious at "first glance of pictures someone else took" which is what we're all doing here.

>I'm doing the exact opposite of what you claim. I am just taking the bits of evidence already available and rejecting root causes that would require those bits of evidence to not exist, which is entirely valid, this still leaves a massive amount of uncertainty which I have underlined on more than one occasion.

I disagree. You are acting like this is a cut and dry situation wherein the Boeing advice that this was not safety critical is just wrong on it's face. That assessment was made 15yr ago (perhaps by "old good boeing" engineers) and on a part already under a lot of scrutiny from the other MD11 that lost an engine. Sure they could be wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it so confidently.

This bearing moves a few degrees. It's not like the engine is doing loops around the pylon. It's possible that for whatever reason the bearing stopped doing bearing things as well as it should. Now, this is a plane, everything is light, aluminum and made to flex to varying degrees. It's hard to say where exactly the movement was taking place in lieu of the bearing. Without specific knowledge it's hard to say how the failure happened. Maybe things got loose and failed from stress concentration. Maybe the movement happened in the wing assembly and the force+vibration of making that happen caused the engine mount to fail. You don't know. I don't know. Nobody in these comments know with a sufficiently low chance of being wrong to point the finger in any one direction.

To act like "well of course when the bearing wore/failed/whatever it ripped its mount right in two because now the force was concentrated and the part it was concentrated on was sus to begin with" is to confidently oversimplify the situation.

Engine pylons, landing gear, control surfaces, these are key systems, not the "built to within an inch of their life because they gotta be light" like a lot of other things on an airliner (though I admit the MD11 is a particularly questionable application of this heuristic)

Big planes generally don't fall out of the sky because one party misleadingly labeled something in the service literature. I would be very surprised if there weren't also maintenance failing of some sort here.

Re: Boeing knew of flaw in part linked to UPS plane crash, NTSB report says

#102
post #19

Some are forgetting how risk in technology works: No technology is designed or operated without flaws; that's an absurd approach and impossible to implement. To reduce negative outcomes, we use risk management: assessing the likely lifetime cost of the flaw, and taking cost-effective measures to reduce the risk to an acceptable level. As a familiar example, redundant mass storage drives are much more cost-effective t…

Please point to someone ITT who is forgetting that. I can't see any such posts.

And "shit happens; suck it up, buttercup" is not an approved PHA determination.

Re: Boeing knew of flaw in part linked to UPS plane crash, NTSB report says

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I owned a machine shop, and I'm the founder of a mid sized CNC gear factory. I think I know my way around bearings, lubrication, press fits and other such bits & pieces. As for the rest of your comment: What a load of tripe. I'm doing the exact opposite of what you claim. I am just taking the bits of evidence already available and rejecting root causes that would require those bits of evidence to not exist, which is…

>I owned a machine shop, and I'm the founder of a mid sized CNC gear factory. I think I know my way around bearings, lubrication, press fits and other such bits & pieces. Then you have no excuse for having such a nuance free opinion for you must know things are often not obvious at "first glance of pictures someone else took" which is what we're all doing here. >I'm doing the exact opposite of what you claim. I am ju…

> I disagree. You are acting like this is a cut and dry situation wherein the Boeing advice that this was not safety critical is just wrong on it's face. That assessment was made 15yr ago (perhaps by "old good boeing" engineers) and on a part already under a lot of scrutiny from the other MD11 that lost an engine. Sure they could be wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it so confidently.

Well, those good old Boeing engineers and their management have misled the world more than once and no longer deserve the benefit of the doubt. That advisory is black-and-white, there is no arguing with what it says or does not say, you can read it for yourself. If your conclusion is the same as Boeing's then that's fine, you can have a different opinion. My conclusion is that if a load bearing component has these kind of potential issues that you need to act with an abundance of caution because of the price in case you get it wrong.

Yes, that bearing only moves a few degrees. But this is not about how much it moves, this is about what happens when it can not move and given the forces involved the outcome of that is fairly predictable, in spite of your previous statements. There is absolutely no way in which if that bearing is seized or otherwise constrained that this is safe.

> I would be very surprised if there weren't also maintenance failing of some sort here.

I explicitly left the door open for that. But regardless, this bearing should have never failed.

There are a couple of HN members whose pension depends on Boeing stock so I can see how this might ruffle some feathers but this is not a company that has behaved in a morally responsible way when it came to issues such as these om the past and you are effectively already blaming the maintenance people with your 'I would be very surprised if there weren't also maintenance failing of some sort here.'.

That is jumping to conclusions.

I would not be surprised if it were the case, but I also would not be surprised if it wasn't the case. That's the degree to which Boeing has squandered its erstwhile stellar reputation.

But, since you feel comfortable attacking my reputation from behind your shield of anonymity I suggest you flesh out your profile and Bio and tell us a bit about yourself and why you feel so emotionally involved in this.

Re: Boeing knew of flaw in part linked to UPS plane crash, NTSB report says

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I owned a machine shop, and I'm the founder of a mid sized CNC gear factory. I think I know my way around bearings, lubrication, press fits and other such bits & pieces. Then you have no excuse for having such a nuance free opinion for you must know things are often not obvious at "first glance of pictures someone else took" which is what we're all doing here. >I'm doing the exact opposite of what you claim. I am ju…

> I disagree. You are acting like this is a cut and dry situation wherein the Boeing advice that this was not safety critical is just wrong on it's face. That assessment was made 15yr ago (perhaps by "old good boeing" engineers) and on a part already under a lot of scrutiny from the other MD11 that lost an engine. Sure they could be wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it so confidently. Well, those good old Boeing engineers…

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Re: Boeing knew of flaw in part linked to UPS plane crash, NTSB report says

#105
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most likely just luck. These days US pilots can’t keep their planes separate from their helicopters so we're not exactly sending our best up there.

Mmmm…. Not saying us pilots are universally great, but I have definitely seen a significant regression from the mean in many foreign cohorts. I imagine it’s due to fundamental differences in the concept of training. It’s one of the things besides war that fear based societies seem to do better than shame based societies.

Civilian pilots have to consider that they are flying in heavily congested airspace with 200 passengers in the back. They are not LARPING Chuck Yaeger in the right stuff.

Re: Boeing knew of flaw in part linked to UPS plane crash, NTSB report says

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I disagree. You are acting like this is a cut and dry situation wherein the Boeing advice that this was not safety critical is just wrong on it's face. That assessment was made 15yr ago (perhaps by "old good boeing" engineers) and on a part already under a lot of scrutiny from the other MD11 that lost an engine. Sure they could be wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it so confidently. Well, those good old Boeing engineers…

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Re: Boeing knew of flaw in part linked to UPS plane crash, NTSB report says

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look up the hull loss numbers on the SR-71. More than a third of them were lost in incidents despite never making contact with the enemy. It was also insanely expensive to operate: $300k/hour in 1990 dollars, and there aren’t reliable numbers on development costs with all of the black budgets.

33 percent attrition and could only fly once a week. I know satellites and drones have replaced the sr71 but it would be cool if someone would build a plane as capable again.

It was replaced because the USSR managed to shoot one down.

Spy satellites are as of yet off limits.

Re: Boeing knew of flaw in part linked to UPS plane crash, NTSB report says

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

33 percent attrition and could only fly once a week. I know satellites and drones have replaced the sr71 but it would be cool if someone would build a plane as capable again.

It was replaced because the USSR managed to shoot one down. Spy satellites are as of yet off limits.

Anti-satellite weapons have been demonstrated by the US, USSR, Russia, China, India, and if you stretch a bit Israel (they shot down a Houthi missile while it was above the Kármán line, the same system is probably capable of use as true anti-satellite weapon). Nobody has shot down anyone else's spy satellites, but it's not because it's impossible.

Re: Boeing knew of flaw in part linked to UPS plane crash, NTSB report says

#109
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After watching the below video, it's the excess bearing play and thus no-longer-constrained force directions that would seem to be the issue. With a proper tolerance bearing in place, the force is constrained so that other parts are only stressed in directions they're well suited to handle (because the bearing takes the load). Once the bearing develops excess tolerance, you've got a bucking engine that (to your point…

> The fact that Boeing supposedly modeled this and came up with non-safety critical in the event of bearing breakage... curious how that will turn out. They'd have to show at least one plane with a bearing gone that still flies as intended. I suggest we break one on purpose, put the full complement of Boeing execs on that plane to prove its safety given the alternative of retracting that statement.

Niki Lauda, eat your heart out
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