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FiveThirtyEight: Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted

nytimes.com

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Re: FiveThirtyEight: Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted

#41

Post by ryanwaggoner »

colanderman wrote: post #31
drivebyacct2 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people love to act like both parties are the same? Is it just errant, broad pessimism? I understand wanting more options or not liking either available option but they're not the same. They don't have the same values, beliefs, principles, policies or experiences. They have many things in common, but they're not the same and it's not useless to talk about them and their perception in the polls.

If they weren't similar, then it would behoove them to become more so, lest the other party move to sway undecided voters. Plurality voting ensures that there are two major parties, and that they are as similar as possible without ceding ground to third parties.

The big risk isn't 3rd parties, it's just not voting, as about half of our citizens decide to do. And for example, it's hard to see the Republican party try to capture undecided voters with more centrist policies without pissing off the right-wing portion of their party, who won't go vote for the green party, but will instead:

1) Not vote 2) Start something like the Tea Party 3) Toss the incumbents out because they weren't extreme enough

This is happening on the left as well; we're becoming way more partisan as a country, and slowly but surely removing all the moderates from Congress.

Re: FiveThirtyEight: Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted

#42

Post by andreasvc »

drivebyacct2 wrote: post #20
marshallp wrote: post #19

Of course, none of this actually matters anymore. The corporo-verlords have bought both parties. The only way is parliamentary system with proportional representation. This isn't a political statement, just that hackers should investigate how to hack the system into that form. One clever hack is being done by John Koza (inventor of genetic programming) to do away with the electoral college http://www.nationalpopularv…

Why do people love to act like both parties are the same? Is it just errant, broad pessimism? I understand wanting more options or not liking either available option but they're not the same. They don't have the same values, beliefs, principles, policies or experiences. They have many things in common, but they're not the same and it's not useless to talk about them and their perception in the polls.

The GP didn't say that they're the same, just that they're in the hands of corporations. Now that may or may not be true, but I think it's obvious that a two party state is very sub-optimal.

Re: FiveThirtyEight: Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted

#43

Post by ryanwaggoner »

marshallp wrote: post #19

Of course, none of this actually matters anymore. The corporo-verlords have bought both parties. The only way is parliamentary system with proportional representation. This isn't a political statement, just that hackers should investigate how to hack the system into that form. One clever hack is being done by John Koza (inventor of genetic programming) to do away with the electoral college http://www.nationalpopularv…

This isn't a political statement, just that hackers should investigate how to hack the system into that form.

Haha...I love this.

The only way to do government is full-blown communism, with a little genocide mixed in for good measure. This isn't a political statement, but someone should figure out how to make this happen.

Of course it's a political statement!

Re: FiveThirtyEight: Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted

#44

Post by clarkmoody »

derleth wrote: post #30
mbell wrote: post #17

It would be awesome if this could somehow incorporate relative positions of the parties over time, perhaps by 'waving' the center line left-right as well. For example it could be argued that republicans during Nixon's time were closer to middle of the road democrats of today in terms of overall platform.

> it could be argued that republicans during Nixon's time were closer to middle road democrats of today in terms of overall platform. That's because it's correct, depending on what you mean by 'middle road Democrat'. Nixon created the EPA, created OSHA, signed Title IX into existence, ended the Vietnam war, and endorsed the Equal Rights Amendment, which nevertheless failed to pass. He couldn't have done a lot of thos…

Bigger landslide in 1984[1]...

Cheating there too?

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elec...

Re: FiveThirtyEight: Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted

#45

Post by EvanMiller »

kevinnk wrote: post #7
dewitt wrote: post #3

Mike Bostock of D3 fame is basically unrivaled in data visualization using HTML, SVG, and JS: http://bost.ocks.org/mike/ Most of the code is open source, too: https://github.com/mbostock Awesome that he's working at the NYT alongside people like Nate Silver.

I agree, this is a really, really cool visualization of something that would otherwise be rather difficult to understand. I've always known about the "Southern switch" but something like this really highlights it. Alabama in particular had a almost 83% change in the vote from 1960 to 1964 and a 73% swing back in 1968! It's also cool to see the slowly cyclical nature of the elections, although the wild swings from one…

This is data visualization gone wrong. I am afraid you have drawn a wildly incorrect conclusion because the programmers were too lazy to deal with the political and historical inconvenience of Gov. George C. Wallace, the Southern Dixiecrat and presidential nominee of the American Independent Party. Alabama didn't suddenly take 73% a left turn to vote for LBJ's vice president in 1968; they, along with Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia, and Arkansas, voted for George Wallace, a candidate who made Richard Nixon look like Bob Dylan in comparison. Get the facts:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=1968&#3...

The moral of the story (in my mind) is that while it's tempting to throw a big dataset into a cool visualization algorithm, if you're not careful about what each individual data point means, you might end up imparting more confusion and misconceptions than actual knowledge.

Re: FiveThirtyEight: Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted

#46

Post by clarkm »

true_religion wrote: post #36
dennisgorelik wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DC is fed by US government. Democrats are pro-government, so DC votes for Democrats.

More info: - Many in the DC metro area are also employed by the military or employed by proxy (i.e. working for a contractor like Boing/Lockheed/Caci/etc.). - The military is a part of the government. - The republican party is firmly behind the military. Unsurprisingly the outlying suburbs of the DC metro area are lean republican[1]. Looks like everyone is voting for their own interests here. [1] http://www.princeton…

I don't think that's true of the past decade or so. While DC's outlying suburbs in Virginia and Maryland are more Republican than the urban core, they most certainly vote more Democratic than the average suburban county elsewhere in the U.S.

Re: FiveThirtyEight: Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted

#47

Post by marshallp »

ryanwaggoner wrote: post #43
marshallp wrote: post #19

Of course, none of this actually matters anymore. The corporo-verlords have bought both parties. The only way is parliamentary system with proportional representation. This isn't a political statement, just that hackers should investigate how to hack the system into that form. One clever hack is being done by John Koza (inventor of genetic programming) to do away with the electoral college http://www.nationalpopularv…

This isn't a political statement, just that hackers should investigate how to hack the system into that form. Haha...I love this. The only way to do government is full-blown communism, with a little genocide mixed in for good measure. This isn't a political statement, but someone should figure out how to make this happen. Of course it's a political statement!

Yeah, sure, whatever you say.

Re: FiveThirtyEight: Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted

#48

Post by ohashi »

ryanwaggoner wrote: post #39
dennisgorelik wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DC is fed by US government. Democrats are pro-government, so DC votes for Democrats.

It's possible that is a factor, but DC is >50% black, so it wouldn't be surprising to see a huge majority for Obama in 2008.

It's about 50% (50.7) http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/11000.html

Re: FiveThirtyEight: Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted

#49

Post by lurker14 »

netmau5 wrote: post #10
Dove wrote: post #8

I am always astonished by what an outlier DC is.

I'm not. If you ever visit, it's pretty clear where each economic group lives. Practically anyone with money who works in DC lives in VA or MD. DC has the highest ghetto per capita in the world.

Northwest DC has plenty of the whitest richest Democratic voters you'll find.

Re: FiveThirtyEight: Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted

#50

Post by andreasvc »

ryanwaggoner wrote: post #43
marshallp wrote: post #19

Of course, none of this actually matters anymore. The corporo-verlords have bought both parties. The only way is parliamentary system with proportional representation. This isn't a political statement, just that hackers should investigate how to hack the system into that form. One clever hack is being done by John Koza (inventor of genetic programming) to do away with the electoral college http://www.nationalpopularv…

This isn't a political statement, just that hackers should investigate how to hack the system into that form. Haha...I love this. The only way to do government is full-blown communism, with a little genocide mixed in for good measure. This isn't a political statement, but someone should figure out how to make this happen. Of course it's a political statement!

Why do you make it seem as if that second part in italics is a quote when it's not? You're arguing against a straw man.
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