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Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

economist.com

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Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#241

Post by graemep »

lm28469 wrote: post #233
graemep wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who would win in a war? Russia, easy. Really? Russia has not even done all that well against Ukraine, a much smaller economy. What sort of war? I agree Spain could not successfully invade Russia, on the other hand Russia could not invade Spain either. No working aircraft carriers so their air force would be operating from very distant bases (even if they were allowed to pass over the countries in between), limits o…

> Really? Spain army's is 1/10th of Ukraine's and basically haven't been in anything close to a war in decades, so yes, really and easily lmao. Ukraine alone produces more military drones per month than the entire EU per year btw.

> Spain army's is 1/10th of Ukraine's and basically haven't been in anything close to a war in decades, so yes, really and easily lmao.

They do not have a border with Russia so how could Russia get their army to Spain?

Ukraine has armed forces geared to fight a land war with Russia. How do Ukraine's air force and navy compare to Spain's?

> Ukraine alone produces more military drones per month than the entire EU per year btw.

Because they are in a war. You cannot compare fully geared up war time production to peacetime production. What was Ukraine's drone output prior to the current Russian invasion?

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#243

Post by pepperball »

lm28469 wrote: post #233
graemep wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who would win in a war? Russia, easy. Really? Russia has not even done all that well against Ukraine, a much smaller economy. What sort of war? I agree Spain could not successfully invade Russia, on the other hand Russia could not invade Spain either. No working aircraft carriers so their air force would be operating from very distant bases (even if they were allowed to pass over the countries in between), limits o…

> Really? Spain army's is 1/10th of Ukraine's and basically haven't been in anything close to a war in decades, so yes, really and easily lmao. Ukraine alone produces more military drones per month than the entire EU per year btw.

I’m certain that if Russia somehow managed to attack or invade Spain, they would not be standing alone. I can’t imagine the French will be as content to sit around twiddling thumbs when their neighbor is lit up.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#244

Post by Nursie »

jdasdf wrote: post #217
zipy124 wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If education is welfare then so is everything. Defence is welfare becuase before you might have to hire private security. Police and fire serviecs are welfare because they used to be private. etc....

Yes, education is welfare. I'm not sure how anyone could possibly argue otherwise...

So, it's obvious where the money goes, it's welfare, because everything is welfare.

0% insight there then.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#245

Post by jacquesm »

rwmj wrote: post #76
dranudin wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The roi is unfortunately not the same if you earn your money in euros and need to pay your taxes in euros. At one point one has to do a forex trade and that will be a loss for the euro investor

Only if you convert it at a loss and are unable to wait for USD to recover. If (and it is, admittedly, a big assumption) we assume that USD and EUR are broadly stable currencies over the long term, then short term changes in the ratio don't matter for long term investors. You're buying a share of productive capacity, the currency it is listed in doesn't matter.

Only if you convert it at a loss and are unable to wait for USD to recover.

If you need to wait for it to recover you have lost money.

Besides, who says it will recover?

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#246

Post by ambicapter »

Rastonbury wrote: post #237
baxtr wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I noticed this as well. I haven’t found a good cure for this other than diversifying globally.

There is no 'cure' per se as a non-US investor currency risk is just something to accept (or swap return for a hedge but then it ends up being a wash mostly), for example if you invest in a World equities ETF, it's a bit pointless to be hedging exposure to all the currencies. Even if you decide to slant away from the US, it's likely a majority of non-US large caps have USD exposures. It's more a psychological thing,…

Is absolute USD return being lower than “actual return” (not sure what that is measured in) an issue if you stay in USD your whole life?

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#247

Post by Ekaros »

mlrtime wrote: post #176
ciconia wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This analogy is flawed. The conversion formula between Fahrenheit and Celsius is fixed. Not so for currencies.

They are two separate issues, you don't look at the returns on SPY vs every currency.

If you are in USA and invest outside USA. Do you look at returns in USD or in nominal value of the market you invested in? Say there is hyperinflation where you invested. You should be extremely happy. After all the nominal value of your investment is massively up. Even if USD value is now fraction...

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#248

Post by quxbar »

baxtr wrote: post #34
BrenBarn wrote: post #9

Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.

I think it’s not perfect but probably the best we have. People forgot or simply don’t realize how much worse life was just a couple of decades ago (in terms of nutrition, access to knowledge, clean water, material wealth).

Yes, look at the massive 'success' of Vail, Colorado.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#249

Post by HumblyTossed »

baxtr wrote: post #34
BrenBarn wrote: post #9

Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.

I think it’s not perfect but probably the best we have. People forgot or simply don’t realize how much worse life was just a couple of decades ago (in terms of nutrition, access to knowledge, clean water, material wealth).

Yes, the bottom 90% have had their lives improve a little. But nowhere near the same as the top 10%.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#250

Post by tonyedgecombe »

jdasdf wrote: post #223
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a promise that if I paid NI then I would receive the state pension. It might have been better not to make that promise but you can’t blame people for accepting it.

Perhaps if people were burned for trusting electoral promises, they would be more mindful of their sustainability. Stop justifying pyramid schemes.

>Stop justifying pyramid schemes.

It’s too late, those promises have been made. We have to lie in the bed we made.

All you can do is stop making future promises.

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