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Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

economist.com

11–20 of 297 posts

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#11

> And it is America’s private sector, not industrial planners in Washington, which is chiefly responsible for the ai boom. The ongoing success of free markets is obscuring the damage protectionism is doing. The AI boom is also largely being funded by defense spending on both sides of the Pacific. Without state investment this technological boom would also suffer.

So another Apollo project? Didn’t that turn out well for us even though it was expensive?

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#12
post #9

Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.

I try to see it positive. With the AI bubble, I finally habe a tangible example to point to when I say that GDP growth is a bad indicator for economic success

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#13

> And it is America’s private sector, not industrial planners in Washington, which is chiefly responsible for the ai boom. The ongoing success of free markets is obscuring the damage protectionism is doing. The AI boom is also largely being funded by defense spending on both sides of the Pacific. Without state investment this technological boom would also suffer.

Also — what industrial plan? As far as I can tell, we just have tariffs without a complementary plan to encourage investment, build infrastructure, train workers, reduce labor costs, etc.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#14

Well in the U.S., a majority of households are invested in the stock market via 401(k)’s. When their investments do well, the average Joe will give the incumbent president the credit.

I think that largely didn’t happen with Biden. But if it’s true then it makes divesting from US stocks a priority for countries targeted by the US administration.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#15

> And it is America’s private sector, not industrial planners in Washington, which is chiefly responsible for the ai boom. The ongoing success of free markets is obscuring the damage protectionism is doing. The AI boom is also largely being funded by defense spending on both sides of the Pacific. Without state investment this technological boom would also suffer.

One could argue we wouldn't even have EUV without state research funds, which I'd say could be seen as a necessary precursor to the AI boom.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#16
I find the S&P500 to be interesting as a demonstration for currency risk. Denoted in US, it went up ~18% or so. For me as an EUR investor, it went up just 4.6% when accounting for the loss of the USD. Comparing that to indicies that usually do not perform that well, Euro Stoxx 50 is up ~22% and MSCI Emerging Markets ~21%.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#17
post #9

Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.

I try to see it positive. With the AI bubble, I finally habe a tangible example to point to when I say that GDP growth is a bad indicator for economic success

Unless you can demonstrate that there is in fact an AI bubble, that is simply begging the question.

Notice how the term “housing bubble” is used much less frequently today than 10 years ago? That’s because that so-called bubble has been ballooning in size for three decades now, and almost nobody still believes that it will “burst” in any meaningful sense. The Dotcom bubble was in many ways an outlier.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#18
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I try to see it positive. With the AI bubble, I finally habe a tangible example to point to when I say that GDP growth is a bad indicator for economic success

Unless you can demonstrate that there is in fact an AI bubble, that is simply begging the question. Notice how the term “housing bubble” is used much less frequently today than 10 years ago? That’s because that so-called bubble has been ballooning in size for three decades now, and almost nobody still believes that it will “burst” in any meaningful sense. The Dotcom bubble was in many ways an outlier.

OT: I enjoyed seeing a dictionary-correct use of the term 'begging the question' in the wild :-)

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#20
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I try to see it positive. With the AI bubble, I finally habe a tangible example to point to when I say that GDP growth is a bad indicator for economic success

Unless you can demonstrate that there is in fact an AI bubble, that is simply begging the question. Notice how the term “housing bubble” is used much less frequently today than 10 years ago? That’s because that so-called bubble has been ballooning in size for three decades now, and almost nobody still believes that it will “burst” in any meaningful sense. The Dotcom bubble was in many ways an outlier.

It is cause housing bubble was a thing of 2000 and burst in 2008 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_United_States_housing_bu...

People dont talk about housing bubble as much, because it is history at this point. Not something that would go on now.

And no, housing being expensive is not the same thing as a bubble. We dont have bubble in housing now.

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