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US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

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Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#361
post #44

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Job openings are still very high, ~30% higher than the average for the last few decades.

Thanks. It is very funny how young people perceive this market. Unemployment is basically lower than it has ever been and people are panicking. Prime age labor force participation rate near all-time record highs. The people are almost dangerously over-employed.

Correct. The prime age labor force participation rate is 0.8% lower than the all-time record highest in recorded US history, January 1999.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#362

My hot take: We’re already in a recession. We just use AI to justify doing all the same recession behaviors while making it sound like innovation - not hiring this year > AI is making us productive! - no wage growth > AI means we don’t need to raise salaries - layoffs > with AI we can do more with less people - spending less on offsites, work perks etc > we really need that budget for AI - not spending money on that…

> My hot take: We’re already in a recession Personal-savings rate says we're heading into a recession, but aren't yet in one [1]. Labour-force participation, on the other hand, suggests we may be [2]. Assuming we go into another shutdown at the end of the month, none of this may be clear until well into the autumn. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

The prime age (25-54 years old) labor force participation rate disagrees.[1] It's almost the highest it's ever been and steady.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#363
post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does this 5% include people who have fallen out of the unemployed bucket into some sort of long term bucket? I know multiple people who have been looking for 6 months+. Not to mention underemployed.

It never has. The labor force participation rate for 25-54 year-olds is a better metric for such things.[1] Last time it was this high was 1990s through 2002. (Before that, it was never this high.) [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

The shape of that graph is roughly equivalent to the shape of labor force participation for women [1]. I don’t think that detracts from your point in regards to the last 20-30 years, but in regards to “before that it was never this high” I think it’s evident that the societal shift of women joining the workforce is the reason, not an improvement in the economy.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#364
post #44

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Job openings are still very high, ~30% higher than the average for the last few decades.

Thanks. It is very funny how young people perceive this market. Unemployment is basically lower than it has ever been and people are panicking. Prime age labor force participation rate near all-time record highs. The people are almost dangerously over-employed.

Haha, you speak of ivory towers without even knowing so

In far more words this entire position is simply "let them eat cake" but without the excuse of a royal court distorting reality.

Willful ignorance is worse.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I work for an global company in the industrial automation space. Not only is there is a major effort underway to offshore jobs and manufacturing from the US, but our customers around the world are pulling way back on capital expenditures, citing US policy uncertainties as a primary reason.

I work for a regional manufacturing company in the US and we have been booming since COVID (nearly doubling every year) and have not seen a slow down. Manufacturing firms seem to be doing really well, here (midwest US).

Where are your downstream clients?

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is literally the nihilism that got us here to begin with.

I mean, yeah. If y’all didn’t pollute the climate to the point things will be unlivable I wouldn’t feel that way. But rn my political goals are to leave a more beautiful corpse.

From what I understand, things will get bad but for 99% of the world, the rest of this century should be bearable climate-wise. There simply aren't enough fossil fuels in the ground to keep it burning longer than 2100~ish anyways. I mean, the problem is very real and millions might die, but at the same time the majority of the billions will do ok as well, so no real cause for nihilsm on that front. Especially considering the mortality rates at the same decades a century earlier would still be significantly higher.

Wars, economic crises and other turmoils however, that's a tough one. Even climate change alone will stress out too many things and exasperate those areas.

It's more like we've had it really good post-WW2 over all, and that will go away pretty soon. Even ocean currents collapsing and acidification of the ocean, as bad as it is, it won't yet be the worst or cataclysmic I'm afraid.

Widespread undesirable situations like that tend to result in humans coming up with solutions too. It took us WW2 to get nuclear energy. It took slavery and colonialism to get us the industrial age. Bad things and good things tend to come and go alike.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could come back. Trump being removed, Vance returning to normal, then normal for the next decade and it would just be a crazy blip. But it’s not just Trump. This is what America wants.

That's what I thought after the first Trump administration. But the fact that we re-elected him proves that it wasn’t a one-off, we will always be four years away from the possibility of a wild regime change.

That’s why it would jar to be Vance and this reigime, Kay without Trump. 10 more years of both red and blue and enough change to undo and prevent this in the future could get it out.

Germany was reformed, Japan was reforms. These things take time

But the problem is the American people want this. This isn’t some dictator in Korea or Iraq or Venezuela, this is someone with full democratic support. There are many checks and balances in the American system to avoid a single person doing this amount of damage without having widespread support.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy canaries can't tell us anything: they're already dead.

That's literally how the canaries would inform the miners about toxic gases.

Happily, this wasn't actually the case. Canaries faint long before they die and miners would carry small resuscitation chambers where the canaries could be reawakened in an oxygen-rich atmosphere. The Science and Industry Museum in Liverpool has one in their collection: https://blog.scienceandindustrymuseum.org.uk/canary-resuscit...

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it would mean to move away from google & android etc. Where do you go?

Jolla's Sailfish OS, GrapheneOS (I know, uses AOSP). It's going to be more touch than running stock Android or iOS, but the more users and funding these get, the more resources for development. I think there will be a lot of chaos in the coming years. But chaos also creates opportunities. There is a lot of local talk about moving away from US Tech and for new tech, you already see this happening. E.g. our local unive…

I prefer Librem 5 and Pinephone, since they don't rely on proprietary software or Google.
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