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US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

bloomberg.com

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Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#351

Post by Eric_WVGG »

hdgvhicv wrote: post #151
Eric_WVGG wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the rate of change. Things like NAFTA took many years to implement, and were debated and developed in the open. Everyone understood what would happen to the economy and that there would be a decade of transition. Nobody announces the largest tariffs since the 1930s overnight, and selectively increases or dismantles them from week to week. Just look at this line graph: https://www.usfunds.com/resource/americas-ta…

It could come back. Trump being removed, Vance returning to normal, then normal for the next decade and it would just be a crazy blip. But it’s not just Trump. This is what America wants.

That's what I thought after the first Trump administration. But the fact that we re-elected him proves that it wasn’t a one-off, we will always be four years away from the possibility of a wild regime change.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#352

Post by NickC25 »

bpt3 wrote: post #324
NickC25 wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I founded a company partially because I spent 2 years on the job hunt and got absolutely nothing. So yeah, here's one example of someone who isn't doing well - me. I was doing terribly. Honestly, I still am. I've just been fortunate enough to have conceived a product some people in my city want. Will the business scale and succeed? I hope so, because I'm fucked if it goes south. And yes, anecdotal data sucks. But I'd…

Sounds like you're on to something, hope that's what turns things around for you.

Thank you. Fingers crossed

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#353

Post by NickC25 »

lotrjohn wrote: post #321
NickC25 wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I founded a company partially because I spent 2 years on the job hunt and got absolutely nothing. So yeah, here's one example of someone who isn't doing well - me. I was doing terribly. Honestly, I still am. I've just been fortunate enough to have conceived a product some people in my city want. Will the business scale and succeed? I hope so, because I'm fucked if it goes south. And yes, anecdotal data sucks. But I'd…

Genuine question: how did you conduct your job search? What steps did you take during those two years? Do you have a degree?

LinkedIn applications, applying to every PM role available in my metro area that I could, attending as many tech & startup events as I could. I got to know the main writer of the local startup/tech news aggregator pretty well and would pester him regularly for contacts at new local companies that he's talking with. I was active in my city's tech Slack/Discord community.

I do have a degree albeit on not in STEM. Also have an advanced degree (also not STEM) that helped the company I was with from 2018 until 2021.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#354

Post by NickC25 »

eli_gottlieb wrote: post #348
NickC25 wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I founded a company partially because I spent 2 years on the job hunt and got absolutely nothing. So yeah, here's one example of someone who isn't doing well - me. I was doing terribly. Honestly, I still am. I've just been fortunate enough to have conceived a product some people in my city want. Will the business scale and succeed? I hope so, because I'm fucked if it goes south. And yes, anecdotal data sucks. But I'd…

I'd like to back you up and point out that I've considered doing the same. If VCs will throw money at anyone promising to advance the SOTA in AI, and I can promise that, why am I bothering to keep looking for research positions or with a financially flailing industry employer?

Fair enough. My product is very much non-tech (CPG - beverage). But you're right that VCs are still throwing money around like its the ZIRP days. If you have an idea, go for it.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#355

Post by NickC25 »

selimthegrim wrote: post #323
lotrjohn wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuine question: how did you conduct your job search? What steps did you take during those two years? Do you have a degree?

I want to back this guy up because I was in the same hole.

See my above post. Basically, tons of applications, going to networking events 2-3x a week, being active in local tech Slack/Discord groups, bothering the lead writer of the local tech/startup newsletter, etc.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#356

Post by bpt3 »

wyre wrote: post #317
bpt3 wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not worked up about anything, just pointing out that a contrived metric isn't all that meaningful but feeds into the preconceived notions of people like the parent poster who seem to love to submit drive-by comments about how terrible everything is. The economy is not doing great. That doesn't mean the "economy is completely fucked and we are in a race to steal and horde all the data before people catch on", whic…

>”economy is completely fucked and we are in a race to steal and horde all the data before people catch on” Have you been following current events for the past year? This is not an absurd statement. You can’t just dismiss news you don’t want to accept as ”doomer FUD”, call a leading economics an “huckster” and then not back it up with real data. Go to twitter or truth social if you want to cherry-pick the news you wa…

Yes, I've been following current events for the last few decades, including the last year. We weren't "completely fucked" in 1990-1991, 2000-2001, 2008, or 2020, (or any of the other cataclysmic events that occurred long before my lifetime) so why would slowing down from the hottest labor market in a generation mean we are "completely fucked" now?

And what on earth does "we are in a race to steal and horde all the data before people catch on" even mean? Who is the "we" who are stealing and hoarding (which is the correct spelling FYI) compared to the "people" who would catch on that it's happening (and presumably care)? What data is being stolen, how, and from whom? Why is hoarding data a problem? Why would any of this matter in the first place if we're "completely fucked" anyway?

Could it be that people like you and the parent poster lack perspective (and potentially some self-awareness) and are prone to overreacting?

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#357

Post by DrPimienta »

jeffbee wrote: post #119
jibe wrote: post #44

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Job openings are still very high, ~30% higher than the average for the last few decades.

Thanks. It is very funny how young people perceive this market. Unemployment is basically lower than it has ever been and people are panicking. Prime age labor force participation rate near all-time record highs. The people are almost dangerously over-employed.

The government has spent decades figuring out ways to lie about this. Are you actually shocked? The number of men who can buy a home and have a stay-at-home-wife on a random job they got out of high school is nigh 0% when this used to be the norm.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#358

Post by eli_gottlieb »

NickC25 wrote: post #354
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to back you up and point out that I've considered doing the same. If VCs will throw money at anyone promising to advance the SOTA in AI, and I can promise that, why am I bothering to keep looking for research positions or with a financially flailing industry employer?

Fair enough. My product is very much non-tech (CPG - beverage). But you're right that VCs are still throwing money around like its the ZIRP days. If you have an idea, go for it.

LOL the primary reason I haven't done it was needing to come up with a concrete business model and MVP.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#359

Post by HeyLaughingBoy »

yencabulator wrote: post #345
HeyLaughingBoy wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy canaries can't tell us anything: they're already dead.

That's literally how the canaries would inform the miners about toxic gases.

"Yes, Ted. That was the joke."

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#360

Post by esbranson »

dexwiz wrote: post #344
jibe wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We also have the unemployment numbers, and they are low. If job openings were largely ghost listings, and we were in a stealth recession, we'd see it in rising unemployment. Now unemployment HAS been creeping up, but still is low. If it hits 5% then I'd worry about a downturn.

Does this 5% include people who have fallen out of the unemployed bucket into some sort of long term bucket? I know multiple people who have been looking for 6 months+. Not to mention underemployed.

It never has. The labor force participation rate for 25-54 year-olds is a better metric for such things.[1] Last time it was this high was 1990s through 2002. (Before that, it was never this high.)

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

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