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US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

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Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#311
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Florida has a GDP in line with Australia, or South Korea, or Spain, and with a smaller population. Not exactly what I would call generationally poor. Texas has the same GDP as Italy, but with half the population.

Alabama, US and Bavaria, Germany also have a similar GDP per capita. You would simply be insane to think Alabama was in any way wealthier than Bavaria. This isn't me having a go at the US, this is me having a go at GDP.

Bavaria is one of the wealthiest regions in Germany and Alabama is one of the poorest US states. So it's not really a great comparison.

Also GDP per capita doesn't have that much to do with "wealth". It's a good proxy for income though. So I'm not sure what you are claiming here exactly.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I do want to pay more to bolster my country's domestic workforce vs subsidizing corporate shareholders and offshore workers, while also having that come out of corporate profits. shrug

You can just buy US-made products... How many American-made garments are in your closet right now? Or is this more of an imaginary preference you're expressing right now?

What’s funny about this is that I actually can’t. 2 examples:

For years, I’ve tried to buy only American-made denim. When the Cone Mills plant closed, I bought a bunch of dead stock jeans. There was one attempt since Cone Mills closed to open a new US denim factory, but it failed. Unless you’re buying whatever’s left of that increasingly rare stock, you can’t buy American-made denim.

Another example — I’m currently in the market for custom-formulated silicone and acrylic products. Every US manufacturer I’ve approached just sends an email that says “no we don’t do that”. I have like 5 Chinese suppliers on Alibaba trying to make a deal with me.

I would much rather source domestically as soon as someone tells me how to do it.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#313

It makes sense that you wouldn't hire in such an uncertain environment. We have a President using emergency powers to affect sweeping, unpredictable, consequential changes to the economy that can dramatically alter unit economics overnight and completely tank a previously viable business. Within this calendar year, the President's ability to do this may be upended by pending court cases, an election, or both. Followi…

we had a much larger disruption to logistics just a few years ago if you recall =) and hiring really took off then. so i don't think this argument really holds any water

Money was free then, and hiring took off in software, which people were relying on a lot more during the pandemic. All of my friends who are performers or work in events were wrecked financially. The industry still hasn’t really recovered.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#314

It makes sense that you wouldn't hire in such an uncertain environment. We have a President using emergency powers to affect sweeping, unpredictable, consequential changes to the economy that can dramatically alter unit economics overnight and completely tank a previously viable business. Within this calendar year, the President's ability to do this may be upended by pending court cases, an election, or both. Followi…

Doesn't every president do that, just to do different industries?

No, every President does not declare tariffs by fiat using specious emergency powers that change day to day depending on who kissed their ass most recently.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can just buy US-made products... How many American-made garments are in your closet right now? Or is this more of an imaginary preference you're expressing right now?

What’s funny about this is that I actually can’t. 2 examples: For years, I’ve tried to buy only American-made denim. When the Cone Mills plant closed, I bought a bunch of dead stock jeans. There was one attempt since Cone Mills closed to open a new US denim factory, but it failed. Unless you’re buying whatever’s left of that increasingly rare stock, you can’t buy American-made denim. Another example — I’m currently i…

Sure there is a (growing set) of product categories you can’t buy in the US. What I typically find though is all these “we should force people to buy US” folks don’t actually own American-made goods even in categories where it’s relatively easy.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the US, it's not too out of the norm historically speaking. Up until relatively recently tariffs were very popular in the US despite the clear understanding by academics that they were incredibly damaging to the economy. Political movements based around protectionist economic arguments have a long history in the US. For an example, take a look at the 1888 US presidential election, which largely revolved around ta…

Serious question, if tariffs are so terrible, why did so many countries have tariffs on US (and other country's) goods? Also, during the period you describe the US was a major export economy. Now the US economy is far more insular (even before Trump) than it was during that period (foreign trade was more than 50% in the late 19th century vs 7% today). Why would you assume that doesn't impact the effects of tariffs?

There's definitely debate over which specific scenarios tariffs could be beneficial, as I understand it, but the general theme is that any benefits are highly concentrated (one or two companies or industries will benefit) and the negatives are felt in a diffuse fashion(every consumer pays the tax). They are broadly protectionist and the ones that do exist usually are implemented for pretty specific reasons like the following:

1: A government wants to protect domestic industries over ones outside of the country by applying price increases to the foreign ones, with the idea being that the domestic industries just need to grow into being able to compete with the industries in other areas. This is called the infant industries argument. A central problem with this is that the industries will always benefit from the protectionist policy, and are unlikely to ever admit that they have "grown up" so to say. My general view on this is that groups will of course lobby to have benefits specific to their industry, and that there are probably scenarios where we would prefer to have things handled domestically rather than abroad, but I would generally want this to be highly targeted and time-gated(Once the industries are mature enough to compete, we wouldn't want to keep subsidizing them), and that other tools are probably more efficient for this purpose.

2: Some sort of national security argument, where production being cut off during war would be a serious concern. My general thought on this one is that if something is specifically important for national security, broad reaching taxes on all imports probably aren't as useful as targeted government interventions in those specific industries. The government can build whatever factories it wants or contract people to do specific things if it passes a law to do so. If we're worried that we need a domestic supply of beets(randomly selected example) and the government is willing to produce them at a loss for national security reasons, they should probably just do that rather than tax imports of coffee, chocolate, bananas, beets, beef, and cars in order to encourage domestic production of beets. The broad spectrum nature of across the board tariffs doesn't specifically protect any given industry, unless the specific protection desired is "nothing should be imported, only ever produced domestically."

3: Historically speaking tariffs were a major source of government revenue. There was no income tax in the very early US (and this was the case in many places), and tariffs were seen as an efficient way to raise a lot of money for the government. At the time it was also something that was a lot easier to measure than things like property value, sales, or individual income, because all the goods had to come in through a port. Pretty easy to check the majority of the things coming in, compared to other taxation methods. A major argument in the time period was actually that the government was making too much revenue, such that it was constricting the growth of the private economy! A huge debate in the 1880s and 1890s was on how the share of government revenue could be lowered, and the growth of the economy could be encouraged. Republicans argued that implementing more tariffs would actually reduce imports and lead to lower revenues, which was the stated goal of the McKinley tariffs.

The general reason some people oppose tariffs overall is that they represent an approach to economic growth based on zero-sum thinking, i.e. an idea that if another country experiences economic growth, ours must suffer economic decline. There tends to be more support from many people behind the idea that international trade allows multiple economies to grow in tandem, as I understand it, but I'm definitely not an expert in this stuff, haha. I just find the historical aspect interesting.

On your second point, describing it as a major export economy in the period I describe is maybe not capturing the scenario, because we were in the middle of a major change in manufacturing. We were major importers of manufactured goods in the preceding time period, and we exported agricultural goods! The period from 1890 to 1910 roughly(depending on when you draw the cutoff) is when the US mainly started exporting manufactured goods more than importing them, and it was a massive transition. The period we're talking about is probably best understood as when we were in the process of industrializing more.

It's fair to point out that the economy was pretty different at the time, but it was different in a bigger way.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#317
post #296
post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re getting very worked up arguing about a 6% difference. Please grow up. You can call people doomers all you want, but that doesn’t change the fact that the economy is getting worse.

I'm not worked up about anything, just pointing out that a contrived metric isn't all that meaningful but feeds into the preconceived notions of people like the parent poster who seem to love to submit drive-by comments about how terrible everything is. The economy is not doing great. That doesn't mean the "economy is completely fucked and we are in a race to steal and horde all the data before people catch on", whic…

>”economy is completely fucked and we are in a race to steal and horde all the data before people catch on”

Have you been following current events for the past year? This is not an absurd statement.

You can’t just dismiss news you don’t want to accept as ”doomer FUD”, call a leading economics an “huckster” and then not back it up with real data. Go to twitter or truth social if you want to cherry-pick the news you want to believe in.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you going to stop at killing corporations? I can imagine a few people might also try to stop you from this people’s revolution you’re envisioning.

Democratic socialists were just recently democratically elected in NYC and Seattle. Support for unions in the US is at historical record highs [1]. ~2M 55+ people in the US die every year, ~5k per day. ~3M people turn 18 every year and become eligible to vote, young people who only see bleakness ahead. 31% of wealth is held by people over 70 [2]. This is a population dynamics story, old ideas die out, new ideas come…

Given how Trump’s second election seems to have been driven by the youth vote, it seems like an overly optimistic take to assume that youth vote is in the bag for progressive ideas. And we’ll see what Mondani has in store in terms of actual progressive policies that he can enact, but corporate death penalty is not on the table last I checked.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a lot pressure to put on a conjunction. It is up there along with 'it will never be'. In all seriousness ( and some disclosure ), I like this tech so I am mildly biased in my stance. That said, I almost fully disagree with yours. As much as I dislike Nadella, his last blog entry is not that far off. Using LLMs for stuff like email summaries is.. kinda silly at best. The right use cases may have not emerged ye…

"it already has been transformative.." Yea, at being a search interface. But what else? Not that it can't be, but the failure rate for AI is absurd right now. What happens if it collapses and all its used for is answering questions on your phone and maybe better search of your emails? That seems to be a real and probably likely outcome. What then? Ironically, I think it will improve the economy because there are a lo…

I keep a personal log of specific failures for simple CYA reasons. I do get some, but I can't honestly say it does not seem high to me. A lot likely depends on what is defined as a failure ( to me it typically is a clearly wrong result ). But those clearly wrong results do not seem to cross 10% of output.. so about the same as average human.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you can find someone to write you a weird, bespoke (and therefore expensive) derivative to hedge against the Trump DoT revoking thousands of CDLs, you've still only succeeded in moving all these calculations and risks to that counterparty. Somebody somewhere still has to have the headache of pricing this risk.

The insurance company can also just go bankrupt if they priced it incorrectly and then your hedge is worthless.

Ideally a reinsurer would be on the hook at that point.
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