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US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

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Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#241

Post by marcosdumay »

talloaktrees wrote: post #73
jibe wrote: post #44

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Job openings are still very high, ~30% higher than the average for the last few decades.

honest question, because it's something I don't understand well. is it possible the quantity of job openings can mask the quality of jobs openings? if job openings at fast food restaurants goes up 1000% maybe this isn't positive

Yes, employment statistics rarely tell you anything about the quality of the jobs. And when they do tell something, it's the simplest information possible.

But the statistics are selected in a way that if a society maintains a low headline unemployment for a long time, it's correlated to an increase in the quality of the jobs¹. The correlation is still not perfect, and authoritarian countries love to redefine the date so their absolute value changes.

1 - More clearly, a constant low unemployment correlates to a positive derivative in quality. And a constant high unemployment correlates to a negative derivative in quality.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#242

Post by Ray20 »

s_dev wrote: post #124
IncreasePosts wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Florida has a GDP in line with Australia, or South Korea, or Spain, and with a smaller population. Not exactly what I would call generationally poor. Texas has the same GDP as Italy, but with half the population.

Alabama, US and Bavaria, Germany also have a similar GDP per capita. You would simply be insane to think Alabama was in any way wealthier than Bavaria. This isn't me having a go at the US, this is me having a go at GDP.

> You would simply be insane to think Alabama was in any way wealthier than Bavaria.

Is it accurate? Europe has a fairly low standard of living compared to America, but their totalitarian governments are quite effective at silencing all dissent.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#243

Post by tick_tock_tick »

Herring wrote: post #81

[flagged]

> Look at the US South. They have been poor for generations because they dislike diversity more than they want a strong economy and common prosperity.

The US South is the only place in the country with "diversity" seriously go look a population maps the north has a fraction of the diversity of the south.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#244

Post by morleytj »

SilverElfin wrote: post #219
ben_w wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You want to tax foreign businesses that sell stuff to you? Ok, given you can only tax stuff when it passes into your territory what you really have there is called a "tariff", it is paid by… the customer, when they buy the thing. The seller has an entire planet to sell to. The US has about 25% of the money to buy things with, but even then only because we all like your money. Moment we stop liking your money, that pr…

I’m not sure why this logic isn’t more mainstream. Half the country is clamoring for tariffs, bans on H1Bs, offshoring taxes, etc. They’re not connecting the dots on how this affects innovation, the economy, debt, taxation, etc. Is it a failure of education or a culture of rejecting it?

For the US, it's not too out of the norm historically speaking. Up until relatively recently tariffs were very popular in the US despite the clear understanding by academics that they were incredibly damaging to the economy. Political movements based around protectionist economic arguments have a long history in the US.

For an example, take a look at the 1888 US presidential election, which largely revolved around tariffs. Grover Cleveland lost re-election due to being part of the pro-business wing of the Democrats, and he came to the conclusion that tariffs were a negative to the economy overall, while his opponents were strongly protectionist. After McKinley's Republicans won the election on a protectionist platform, he instituted the McKinley tariffs (average import duties of around ~50%), which were devastating to the economy despite being extremely popular with the nation in the election. It led to massive price increases which led to the re-election of Grover Cleveland in 1892 (only other non-consecutive term president aside from Trump). Despite expert opinion being fairly solidified against tariffs even at the time, the idea of "protecting American business" and "punishing other countries for their unequal trade deficits with the US" was pretty popular with specific interest groups!

Parts of this sound rather familiar, do they not? I would then argue that it points to a cultural element, out of the two options of a failure of education or a culture of rejecting it. History certainly rhymes on this point.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#245

Post by spencerflem »

notepad0x90 wrote: post #23

I was just telling someone the other day how all the talk of civil wars and unrest were overblown, Americans will never resort to that with the economy the way it is. Even in the '08 recession (and even worse scenarios), recovery was a possibility. There would be no jobs at the time, but you can reasonably expect them to be created in a few years. You could go to school and switch careers. But I think right now there…

I feel ya 100%.

Add on atomic bombs and biosphere collapse and I’m not just worried for the USA but civilization itself not making it many more decades

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#246

Post by reop2whiskey »

Ray20 wrote: post #212
lvl155 wrote: post #122

Corporate America is such a weird place. They rather hire immigrants than retrain or educate existing workforce. Everything about the US economy is plug and play then discard. And if they can’t plug and play, they will just scrap the whole thing. That’s exactly what’s happening right now.

> They rather hire immigrants than retrain or educate existing workforce The existing workforce is literally the most expensive in the world. And if you add to that its toxicity, what specifically surprises you?

[dead]

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#247

Post by marcosdumay »

notepad0x90 wrote: post #92
tdeck wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Might be time to check with history and see how fascist governments have historically sought resources to boost their domestic economy...

They didn't outsource manufacturing, rely on foreign parties for critical tech, and rely on immigrants (legal or not) for both skilled and unskilled labor. They didn't have instant comms and globalized commerce either. Only tangentially related, the Nazis started the holocaust, in part, as a way to boost their domestic economy while making invasion supply chains viable. Less people to fight over resources, they were…

> They didn't outsource manufacturing, rely on foreign parties for critical tech, and rely on immigrants (legal or not) for both skilled and unskilled labor.

Outsourcing manufacturing is new. But you are wrong about the other two.

Why do you think fascists (and proto-fascists and the unrelated look-alikes) keep losing wars all through history?

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#248

Post by palmotea »

aldebran wrote: post #97
ibejoeb wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone will tell you I'm not a regulations guy, but there's definitely a problem. When you watch these rounds of seemingly coordinated, sweeping layoffs, followed by H-1B hiring sprees, it's hard to pretend.

You’re misinformed or willingly stupid if you think there are H1 hiring sprees with the last set of changes. H1 hiring has tanked.

> You’re misinformed or willingly stupid if you think there are H1 hiring sprees with the last set of changes. H1 hiring has tanked.

Yeah, probably because they're offshoring instead. Which is, you know, worse.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#249

Post by microtonal »

tick_tock_tick wrote: post #231
ben_w wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You want to tax foreign businesses that sell stuff to you? Ok, given you can only tax stuff when it passes into your territory what you really have there is called a "tariff", it is paid by… the customer, when they buy the thing. The seller has an entire planet to sell to. The US has about 25% of the money to buy things with, but even then only because we all like your money. Moment we stop liking your money, that pr…

> The seller has an entire planet to sell to. They really don't there is a reason the EU pretty much instantly caved in the last trade "negotiation" and it's most of the world frankly doesn't have much money. There certainly isn't enough untapped demand to fill a USA sized hole anywhere.

The EU caved because they didn't want to agitate Trump too much due to Ukraine. This becomes less and less important as the EU ramps up arms production.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#250

Post by lotsofpulp »

talloaktrees wrote: post #73
jibe wrote: post #44

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Job openings are still very high, ~30% higher than the average for the last few decades.

honest question, because it's something I don't understand well. is it possible the quantity of job openings can mask the quality of jobs openings? if job openings at fast food restaurants goes up 1000% maybe this isn't positive

Cash is king. Look at change in income by quintile (or preferably decile, but I was too lazy to check mark all those and make a graph)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1Q95B&heig...

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