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US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

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Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#151

Post by hdgvhicv »

Eric_WVGG wrote: post #51
bluedino wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't every president do that, just to do different industries?

It's the rate of change. Things like NAFTA took many years to implement, and were debated and developed in the open. Everyone understood what would happen to the economy and that there would be a decade of transition. Nobody announces the largest tariffs since the 1930s overnight, and selectively increases or dismantles them from week to week. Just look at this line graph: https://www.usfunds.com/resource/americas-ta…

It could come back. Trump being removed, Vance returning to normal, then normal for the next decade and it would just be a crazy blip.

But it’s not just Trump. This is what America wants.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#153

Post by rvz »

fellowniusmonk wrote: post #93
jibe wrote: post #44

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Job openings are still very high, ~30% higher than the average for the last few decades.

I don't understand how this chart can be true at all. Does this include ghost listings?

Very likely which is the point of the ghost jobs and gives the illusion that the OP is falling for. Companies (especially publicly traded ones) do not want analysts at banks or hedge funds using their careers page as a good / bad signal.

Therefore, it is cope.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#154

Post by nostrademons »

ibejoeb wrote: post #118
aldebran wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re misinformed or willingly stupid if you think there are H1 hiring sprees with the last set of changes. H1 hiring has tanked.

This is a real eye-opener. Do you know how to fix how stupid I am? Tell me what's wrong with my analysis. Here's a report: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-lawmakers-scruti... . Is it factually wrong that "In the first half of 2025, Amazon and its cloud-computing unit, AWS, received approval for more than 12,000 H-1B visas, while Microsoft and Meta had more than 5,000 H-1B visa approvals each" and that the…

It's hard to see how H-1B hiring could move meaningfully either up or down, given that the number of H-1Bs is capped at 65,000 [1] (+ 20,000 for advanced degrees), no company is going to pay for the process of getting an H-1B visa and not actually hire into it, and if a person on an H-1B loses their job they lose their visa in 60 days. You know exactly how many H-1Bs there are in the country: it's mandated by Congress.

What has changed is that they are or will soon be allocated by pay level instead of randomly. That's going to bias hiring toward Big Tech firms like Microsoft and Meta and away from body-shops like Infosys and Wipro.

[1] https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary...

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#155

Post by daemonologist »

bpt3 wrote: post #103
DetectDefect wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really is this simple and this chart of Net Worth Held by the Top 0.1% demonstrates it well - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBLTP1246

That chart seems to demonstrate that there was a lot of inflation in the early 2020s, which I assume is not your point.

Here's one for share of net worth: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBSTP1300

(Note: I am not GP, and am not necessarily saying you can draw conclusions from this one chart, just that the change in net worth cannot be attributed solely to inflation.)

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#156

Post by jeffbee »

xboxnolifes wrote: post #145
jeffbee wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. It is very funny how young people perceive this market. Unemployment is basically lower than it has ever been and people are panicking. Prime age labor force participation rate near all-time record highs. The people are almost dangerously over-employed.

Because it measures open job listing. All of the job listing i've apply to and never hear back from still exist too. Take from that what you will.

I can assure you that has happened before. I just find it amusing. A professional now 25-30 years old started their career in what was the most spectacularly overheated labor market of all time. Now it is very very slightly cooling off, still way hotter than historical norms, and there are many complaints. But it is all relative.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#157

Post by ZeroCool2u »

DetectDefect wrote: post #6
ZeroCool2u wrote: post #5

Bloomberg gift linK: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-07/us-job-op...

Not necessary, this information is free: https://finviz.com/calendar/economic/detail/UNITEDSTAJOBOFF?... > Job openings in the US fell by 303,000 to 7.146 million in November 2025, the lowest since December 2020 and well below market expectations of 7.60 million. The number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-148,000); transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-108,000); and wholesale tra…

Gift link costs me nothing :)

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#158

Post by loeg »

jeffbee wrote: post #138
loeg wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The youngest Millennials were 18 in 2014 and 22 in 2018. At this point, it's the smaller Gen Z entering the workforce, not Millennials.

Let me put it another way: the [20, 25) and [25, 30) age cohorts are larger than any cohort aged 50+ that might have recently aged out. So that "prime age" workforce is still growing.

This could be true, but it isn't obviously true (to me). (I dispute a little bit the idea that there are many new workers in the [25, 30) demo.) There are 37M workers 55+, but only 20M in the 16-24 range: https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat18b.htm (2024 numbers)

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#159

Post by theultdev »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #115
theultdev wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From someone who is close to the energy sector that's simply not true. There's been so many EOs from Democrat presidents that cause hugely negative disruptions in the industry.

Can you give a few examples, please. Also, I'm curious, what you feel you're getting out of your support of the Trump regime?

The first that comes to mind was the Keystone XL Pipeline.

Biden cancelled it with EO 13990 when it was pretty much done.

Would have been thousands of jobs, Canada wanted it too, it's safer than trucking/transporting by train. All just cancelled on a whim.

Then there's EO 14008 that put a moratorium on new oil and gas leases on federal lands and offshore waters. (fed land is 25% of oil production)

Regardless of your position on oil (I'm sure you have one), the point is those are two examples of disruption of an industry by EO from a previous president.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#160

Post by garciasn »

milesvp wrote: post #105
garciasn wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S Federal Receipts as a Percent of GDP measures total government revenue relative to the size of the economy, serving as a standardized way to track the federal tax burden over time. Although the top marginal tax rate in the 1950s indeed exceeded 90%, federal receipts hovered around 17% of GDP; this was nearly identical to current levels, because loopholes and high income…

Raising taxes should never be seen as a way to raise revenue. Even if the Laffer curve has come under attack, there is still some profit maximizing rate which I’m positive most modern countries are beyond both at a static rate and at a growth and future revenue maximizing rate. No we don’t tax at this point to increase tax revenue. We do tax to shape what society looks like. Right now society doesn’t look very good t…

I am choosing not to get involved in a discussion about tax policy miniutiae as I am not an expert in any related way; instead, I wanted to provide factual context to the oft-repeated 'America was better in the 1950s due to the tax rate on the rich,' claim so folks might be able to better understand what they're attempting to say.
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