Earlier quoted context omitted.
The US needs an offshoring tax. If you want to sell to Americans you also need to hire Americans.
shrug enjoy paying more taxes for your consumption, I guess.
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US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
71–80 of 376 posts
Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe. I am likely not a typical HNer, but my company actually has use of AI our 2026 goals. I am not guessing. I know majority of people in this company have those goals baked in. Now, can I suspect other like companies do the same? No. But even if they don't, it does not matter. Because the companies that don't allow AI, have people who use it anyway..
FOMO. https://www.axios.com/2025/08/21/ai-wall-street-big-tech Have we forgotten this? It'll find its niche, but it isn't yet a truly transformative one.
That is a lot pressure to put on a conjunction. It is up there along with 'it will never be'.
In all seriousness ( and some disclosure ), I like this tech so I am mildly biased in my stance. That said, I almost fully disagree with yours.
As much as I dislike Nadella, his last blog entry is not that far off. Using LLMs for stuff like email summaries is.. kinda silly at best. The right use cases may have not emerged yet, but, in a very real sense, it already has been transformative..
Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
#73https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Job openings are still very high, ~30% higher than the average for the last few decades.
honest question, because it's something I don't understand well. is it possible the quantity of job openings can mask the quality of jobs openings? if job openings at fast food restaurants goes up 1000% maybe this isn't positive
Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
#74It makes sense that you wouldn't hire in such an uncertain environment. We have a President using emergency powers to affect sweeping, unpredictable, consequential changes to the economy that can dramatically alter unit economics overnight and completely tank a previously viable business. Within this calendar year, the President's ability to do this may be upended by pending court cases, an election, or both. Followi…
Actually its easy if you're a multinational. You invest outside the United States.
also, future of USD-value is highly uncertain, dropped 10% last year, likely to drop more if interest rates keep dropping
Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
Actually its easy if you're a multinational. You invest outside the United States.
The US needs an offshoring tax. If you want to sell to Americans you also need to hire Americans.
US would lose out significantly if this were applied by everyone worldwide. The whole of Europe + Anglosphere have surrendered their whole tech related sectors to US companies, an enormous wealth transfer.
Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes they do. Not sure why you're being downvoted.
No - not to anything like the same extent, and not through executive orders.
From someone who is close to the energy sector that's simply not true.
There's been so many EOs from Democrat presidents that cause hugely negative disruptions in the industry.
Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
#77It makes sense that you wouldn't hire in such an uncertain environment. We have a President using emergency powers to affect sweeping, unpredictable, consequential changes to the economy that can dramatically alter unit economics overnight and completely tank a previously viable business. Within this calendar year, the President's ability to do this may be upended by pending court cases, an election, or both. Followi…
One of my clients is a midsized logistics brokerage based in LA. Right now is RFP season, where they bid on freight contracts with various existing and potential customers. These contracts are typically one year long. A bid you submit now might be for a contract that goes Sept-Sept.
This is difficult even under normal circumstances because you have to predict what carrier (trucker) rates will be in the future. You also have to predict fuel costs, because even though these are usually variable, when fuel costs go up so does your margin (so if you expect higher fuel prices you can lower your bid price). And you have to game out what your competitors are going to bid too. You can’t be too conservative (expensive) or you won’t get the bid. But if you lock in a contract with a certain expectation of rates and it swings the other way, you’re on the hook for millions in losses.
Now imagine doing that normally difficult task in this environment. Who knows what will happen. Wars, a revocation of trucker drivers’ licenses (already happening in Cali), deportations, tariffs, the collapse of USMCA…the uncertainty is near endless. Big tech companies are doing great, everyone else is getting absolutely destroyed.
Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
#78My hot take: We’re already in a recession. We just use AI to justify doing all the same recession behaviors while making it sound like innovation - not hiring this year > AI is making us productive! - no wage growth > AI means we don’t need to raise salaries - layoffs > with AI we can do more with less people - spending less on offsites, work perks etc > we really need that budget for AI - not spending money on that…
I think that's mostly just HNers assuming AI like Claude Code is already penetrating the day to day work of the workforce. "If I use, then everyone is probably using it". Yet AI penetration is so low right now that it probably has zero role in the job market. And it keeps us distracted from talking about the real reasons behind job opening decline. That said, once AI ubiquity picks up within the next few years, we'll…
I think parent comment was talking about hype vs reality rather than disagreeing with you.
"We're not hiring but AI is in the news" = "We're not hiring because of AI! Don't sell our stock!" It's independent of actual current or future AI adoption.
Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
#79It makes sense that you wouldn't hire in such an uncertain environment. We have a President using emergency powers to affect sweeping, unpredictable, consequential changes to the economy that can dramatically alter unit economics overnight and completely tank a previously viable business. Within this calendar year, the President's ability to do this may be upended by pending court cases, an election, or both. Followi…
Actually its easy if you're a multinational. You invest outside the United States.
I work for an global company in the industrial automation space. Not only is there is a major effort underway to offshore jobs and manufacturing from the US, but our customers around the world are pulling way back on capital expenditures, citing US policy uncertainties as a primary reason.
Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
#80https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Job openings are still very high, ~30% higher than the average for the last few decades.
Shouldn’t job openings always trend upwards with increasing population?