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US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

bloomberg.com

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Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#41

Post by joshgachnang »

nonameiguess wrote: post #31
DetectDefect wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessary, this information is free: https://finviz.com/calendar/economic/detail/UNITEDSTAJOBOFF?... > Job openings in the US fell by 303,000 to 7.146 million in November 2025, the lowest since December 2020 and well below market expectations of 7.60 million. The number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-148,000); transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-108,000); and wholesale tra…

I'd say personally it's worthwhile for Americans to know where to get the canonical data directly: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.a.htm . Everything else is some sort of spin, interpretation, or at best selective reporting of the underlying primary data.

I generally agree. But with the current administration firing the former BLS chief (possibly due to bad numbers being reported) and changing economic reporting (e.g. PPI and GDP estimates), I'm not sure I trust the government data to not also have some sort of spin or selective releasing.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#43

Post by toomuchtodo »

bt1a wrote: post #10
DetectDefect wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessary, this information is free: https://finviz.com/calendar/economic/detail/UNITEDSTAJOBOFF?... > Job openings in the US fell by 303,000 to 7.146 million in November 2025, the lowest since December 2020 and well below market expectations of 7.60 million. The number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-148,000); transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-108,000); and wholesale tra…

transportation, warehousing, and utilities being a headlining loser here is the most striking.... perhaps?

Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-Year in December - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46514490 - January 2026

(heavy trucks sales collapse is a recession indicator)

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#45

Post by tayo42 »

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 wrote: post #16
hombre_fatal wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's mostly just HNers assuming AI like Claude Code is already penetrating the day to day work of the workforce. "If I use, then everyone is probably using it". Yet AI penetration is so low right now that it probably has zero role in the job market. And it keeps us distracted from talking about the real reasons behind job opening decline. That said, once AI ubiquity picks up within the next few years, we'll…

Maybe. I am likely not a typical HNer, but my company actually has use of AI our 2026 goals. I am not guessing. I know majority of people in this company have those goals baked in. Now, can I suspect other like companies do the same? No. But even if they don't, it does not matter. Because the companies that don't allow AI, have people who use it anyway..

What industry and roles?

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#46

Post by esseph »

hombre_fatal wrote: post #27
A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe. I am likely not a typical HNer, but my company actually has use of AI our 2026 goals. I am not guessing. I know majority of people in this company have those goals baked in. Now, can I suspect other like companies do the same? No. But even if they don't, it does not matter. Because the companies that don't allow AI, have people who use it anyway..

The writing is on the wall for AI. It is coming fast and it is transformative. That your company is still trying to ramp up AI adoption and processes for 2026 supports my point. But we've been blaming AI for a couple years now, yet I suspect it's still too early in the adoption curve to have a meaningful impact on hiring compared to more boring explanations.

Even if AI wasn't being used for daily tasks by general employees, it's being used by HR and staff sourcing firms to sort through applications, so it already has had a large (negative) impact on hiring.

Maybe we should do an "Ask HN" for those in HR or adjacent roles to poll for experiences there.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#47

Post by theultdev »

bluedino wrote: post #39
mbgerring wrote: post #18

It makes sense that you wouldn't hire in such an uncertain environment. We have a President using emergency powers to affect sweeping, unpredictable, consequential changes to the economy that can dramatically alter unit economics overnight and completely tank a previously viable business. Within this calendar year, the President's ability to do this may be upended by pending court cases, an election, or both. Followi…

Doesn't every president do that, just to do different industries?

Yes they do. Not sure why you're being downvoted.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#48

Post by eru »

charliebwrites wrote: post #4

My hot take: We’re already in a recession. We just use AI to justify doing all the same recession behaviors while making it sound like innovation - not hiring this year > AI is making us productive! - no wage growth > AI means we don’t need to raise salaries - layoffs > with AI we can do more with less people - spending less on offsites, work perks etc > we really need that budget for AI - not spending money on that…

> - layoffs > with AI we can do more with less people

That's pretty silly. Just look at the unemployment rate, not at the headlines.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#49

Post by rich_sasha »

garciasn wrote: post #24
hmmokidk wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Massive wealth redistribution is just another word for Taxes. When we taxed the rich we were happy. It’s literally all we gotta do.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S Federal Receipts as a Percent of GDP measures total government revenue relative to the size of the economy, serving as a standardized way to track the federal tax burden over time. Although the top marginal tax rate in the 1950s indeed exceeded 90%, federal receipts hovered around 17% of GDP; this was nearly identical to current levels, because loopholes and high income…

The total tax intake is fairly unambiguous. Personal tax bill for the vast majority of people is also quite clear. But when you get to the top 0.1% or whatever it is, things like "income" and "tax" get ambiguous. I suppose a lot of the ultra rich don't have much earnings, at best cap gains, and even that can be offset, boxed and off-shored ad nauseam.

Maybe instead of looking at the ultra rich we could look at what GDP fraction the "bottom 95%" contribute to the tax burden - is that more or less than before. Not sure where to look for this data but sounds like a nice little exercise.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#50

Post by bpt3 »

DetectDefect wrote: post #30
bpt3 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

22/50 ~= half. No one claim it was half the population, other than you (strangely). TIL Moody’s Analytics is "doomer FUD".

"Half the US" very rarely means "slightly less than half of the states in the US" without any qualifiers.

And yes, Moody's Analytics chief economist is generally known for making wildly inaccurate predictions.

Regardless, your take on all of this is what I called doomer FUD, which goes well beyond Zandi's take.

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